Adaptation of water resources systems to changing society and environment: a statement by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences

ABSTRACT

We explore how to address the challenges of adaptation of water resources systems under changing conditions by supporting flexible, resilient and low-regret solutions, coupled with on-going monitoring and evaluation. This will require improved understanding of the linkages between biophysical and social aspects in order to better anticipate the possible future co-evolution of water systems and society. We also present a call to enhance the dialogue and foster the actions of governments, the international scientific community, research funding agencies and additional stakeholders in order to develop effective solutions to support water resources systems adaptation. Finally, we call the scientific community to a renewed and unified effort to deliver an innovative message to stakeholders. Water science is essential to resolve the water crisis, but the effectiveness of solutions depends, inter alia, on the capability of scientists to deliver a new, coherent and technical vision for the future development of water systems.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Damage assessment of fortresses after the 2012 Emilia earthquake (Italy)

The medieval fortresses are a very common and distinctive type among the Emilian historical constructions and the earthquake of May 20 and 29, 2012 highlighted their high vulnerability. Starting from the analysis of the geometrical and constructive features, the interpretation of their seismic vulnerability has been based on an accurate damage assessment and supported by the numerical results of typical configurations. An abacus of recurring seismic damage mechanisms in fortresses has been proposed: it in particular concerns the towers and their interaction with the fortress perimeter walls. Moreover, the seismic response of the most important fortresses in the epicentral area has been described referring to their historical notes, the recent interventions and their influence on the seismic damage.     

Detection of trends in magnitude and frequency of flood peaks across Europe

This study analyses the differences in significant trends in magnitude and frequency of floods detected in annual maximum flood (AMF) and peak over threshold (POT) flood peak series, for the period 1965–2005. Flood peaks are identified from European daily discharge data using a baseflow-based algorithm and significant trends in the AMF series are compared with those in the POT series, derived for six different exceedence thresholds. The results show that more trends in flood magnitude are detected in the AMF than in the POT series and for the POT series more significant trends are detected in flood frequency than in flood magnitude. Spatially coherent patterns of significant trends are detected, which are further investigated by stratifying the results into five regions based on catchment and hydro-climatic characteristics. All data and tools used in this study are open-access and the results are fully reproducible.     

Multiparametric Approach in Investigating Volcano-Hydrothermal Systems: the Case Study of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy)

Seismic activity, ground deformation, and soil and fumarole temperatures acquired during 2004–2007 at Vulcano (Aeolian Islands) are analysed and the time relations among the different time series are discussed. Changes in temperature of fumarolic gases took place during four “anomalous” periods (November 2004–March 2005; October 2005–February 2006; August–October 2006; July–December 2007) at the same time as an increasing number of volcano-seismic events. In particular, the temperatures at high temperature vents and at steam heated soil ranged in time from 180 to 440°C and from 20 to 90°C, respectively. The maximum daily number of volcano-seismic events was 57, reached during the second anomalous period. This seismicity, characterised by focal depth generally lower than 1?km below sea level (b.s.l.) and composed of different kinds of events associated to both resonance and shear failure processes, is related to the shallow dynamics of the hydrothermal system. During the analysed period, very few volcano-tectonic earthquakes took place and tilt recordings showed no sharp or important changes. In light of such observations, the increases in both temperature and volcano-seismic events number were associated to increases in the release of gas from a deep and stable magma body, without magma intrusions within the shallow hydrothermal system. Indeed, a greater release of gas from depth leads to increased fluid circulation, that can promote increases in volcano-seismic events number by both fracturing processes and resonance and vibration in cracks and conduits. The different trends observed in the measured geochemical and geophysical series during the anomalous periods can be due to either time changes in the medium permeability or a changing speed of gas release from a deep magma body. Finally, all the observed variations, together with the changing temporal distribution of the different seismic event kinds, suggest that the hydrothermal system at Vulcano can be considered unsteady and dynamic.     

Channel response to sediment release: insights from a paired analysis of dam removal

Dam removals with unmanaged sediment releases are good opportunities to learn about channel response to abruptly increased bed material supply. Understanding these events is important because they affect aquatic habitats and human uses of floodplains. A longstanding paradigm in geomorphology holds that response rates to landscape disturbance exponentially decay through time. However, a previous study of the Merrimack Village Dam (MVD) removal on the Souhegan River in New Hampshire, USA, showed that an exponential function poorly described the early geomorphic response. Erosion of impounded sediments there was two‐phased. We had an opportunity to quantitatively test the two‐phase response model proposed for MVD by extending the record there and comparing it with data from the Simkins Dam removal on the Patapsco River in Maryland, USA. The watershed sizes are the same order of magnitude (10² km²), and at both sites low‐head dams were removed (~3–4 m) and ~65 000 m³ of sand‐sized sediments were discharged to low‐gradient reaches. Analyzing four years of repeat morphometry and sediment surveys at the Simkins site, as well as continuous discharge and turbidity data, we observed the two‐phase erosion response described for MVD. In the early phase, approximately 50% of the impounded sediment at Simkins was eroded rapidly during modest flows. After incision to base level and widening, a second phase began when further erosion depended on floods large enough to go over bank and access impounded sediments more distant from the newly‐formed channel. Fitting functional forms to the data for both sites, we found that two‐phase exponential models with changing decay constants fit the erosion data better than single‐phase models. Valley width influences the two‐phase erosion responses upstream, but downstream responses appear more closely related to local gradient, sediment re‐supply from the upstream impoundments, and base flows. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discussion to: ‘Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses’ by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri,F. Di Traglia,T. Nolesini,G. Gigli and N. Casagli

The paper ‘Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses’ by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli deals with a sensitive topic for landslide risk management. Exploring the pre-failure behaviour of four different case histories, the authors proposed standard procedures for the application of the inverse velocity method (INV, Fukuzono 1985). Specifically, they suggested guidelines for the filtering of velocity data and an original and simple approach to automatically set the first and the second alarm thresholds using the inverse velocity method. The present discussion addresses three different topics: (1) data filter selection according to the features of monitoring instrument; (2) the importance of data sampling frequency for the forecasting analysis and (3) the influence of the starting point (SP in this discussion) for the application of INV analysis. Moreover, based on this matter, a new method is proposed to update the INV analysis on an ongoing basis.     

Suspended sediments and organic matter in mountain headwaters of the Amazon River: Results from a 1-year time series study in the central Peruvian Andes

Few studies have examined the dynamics of sediments and suspended organic matter and their export from headwater basins in the Andes Mountains to the Amazon River, despite the fact that the Andes are the primary source of sediments to the lower Amazon basin. We measured river discharge as well as the concentration, δ¹⁵N, δ¹³C, %N, and %OC of coarse and fine suspended sediments (CSS and FSS) in the Chorobamba River, located in the central Andean Amazon of Peru. Samples were taken at least weekly over an entire year (July 2004-July 2005), with additional sampling during storms. Concentrations of particulate organic matter (POM) were generally low in the study river, with concentrations increasing by up to several orders of magnitude during episodic rain events. Because both overall flow volumes and POM concentrations increased under stormflow conditions, the export of POM was enhanced multiplicatively during these events. We estimated that a minimum of 80% of annual suspended sediment transfer occurred during only about 10 days of the year, also accounting for 74% of particulate organic carbon and 64% of particulate organic nitrogen transport. Significant differences occurred between seasons (wet and dry) for δ¹³C of coarse and fine POM in the Chorobamba River, reflecting seasonal changes in organic matter sources. The time series data indicate that this Andean river exports approximately equal amounts of fine and coarse POM to the lower Amazon. The observation that the vast majority of sediments and associated OM exported from Andean rivers is mobilized during short, infrequent storm events and landslides has important implications for our understanding of Amazon geochemistry, especially in the face of incipient global change.     

Estimating Stable Measured Values and Detecting Anomalies in Groundwater Geochemistry Time Series Data Across the Athabasca Oil Sands Area,Canada

Regional groundwater monitoring in the Athabasca region of Alberta, Canada, provides information on groundwater quality and geochemical changes over time, including data useful for evaluating potential impacts of industrial activity such as oil sands mining and in situ operations. Data collected from over 5000 wells from the 1950s to 2014, including 161 wells from government’s monitoring network, were used to develop and apply bootstrap techniques for the detection of changes in groundwater geochemistry over time and at specific points in time. Increasing temporal anomalies were identified in Cl, TDS, B, and naphthenic acids in the McMurray formation across 2003 and 2008, while decreasing anomalies were found for SO₄. Temporal variance for 15 indicators was quantified for a smooth bootstrap approach to arrive at stable values representative of the most recent samples taken from wells in the study area. Stable values revealed sampling bias in the Devonian, Grand Rapids, Empress, Channel Beverly, and Muriel Lake formations suggesting expansion of sampling may be necessary. Although temporal anomalies were found in the McMurray formation, sampling bias was not identified. The entropy and relative magnitude of time series were evaluated to identify candidate wells for continued observations, which consist of wells with low measurements and low entropy that are near active industry lease boundaries. Temporal anomalies, stable values, and entropy were combined into type-well information to provide plots for visual inspection and interpretation. Stable values are useful for regional mapping, for detecting future changes and trends, and for identifying areas of interest warranting further investigation.

     

Responses of humpback whales to a changing climate in the Southern Hemisphere: Priorities for research efforts

Globally, baleen whales were severely depleted by historic whaling. Recovering populations have been observed to alter their behaviour. These changes have been attributed to climate change in some cases and raise concerns over the successful recovery of baleen whale populations. Current data-driven statistical habitat and behavioural models have proven useful for addressing questions of whale distribution changes within their limitations. Given observed changes in oceanic conditions, a new approach to managing baleen whale population recovery is necessary. Model predictions of future whale movements and distributions under climate change scenarios are vital to enable adequate conservation management. This paper presents a new perspective on understanding the impacts of climate change on humpback whales, arguing the need for a system-based multidisciplinary research approach. Our approach includes coupled, mechanistic models based upon robust ecological principles, and integrates key physical, biogeochemical, biological and ecological modules to address long-term changes associated with climate change. To illustrate the need for this system-based multidisciplinary approach, we focus on Southern Hemisphere humpback whales, the recovery of which may be impacted by rapid changes in habitat conditions brought about by anthropogenic climate change.