Discussion to: ‘Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses’ by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri,F. Di Traglia,T. Nolesini,G. Gigli and N. Casagli

The paper ‘Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses’ by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli deals with a sensitive topic for landslide risk management. Exploring the pre-failure behaviour of four different case histories, the authors proposed standard procedures for the application of the inverse velocity method (INV, Fukuzono 1985). Specifically, they suggested guidelines for the filtering of velocity data and an original and simple approach to automatically set the first and the second alarm thresholds using the inverse velocity method. The present discussion addresses three different topics: (1) data filter selection according to the features of monitoring instrument; (2) the importance of data sampling frequency for the forecasting analysis and (3) the influence of the starting point (SP in this discussion) for the application of INV analysis. Moreover, based on this matter, a new method is proposed to update the INV analysis on an ongoing basis.     

Adaptation of water resources systems to changing society and environment: a statement by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences

ABSTRACT

We explore how to address the challenges of adaptation of water resources systems under changing conditions by supporting flexible, resilient and low-regret solutions, coupled with on-going monitoring and evaluation. This will require improved understanding of the linkages between biophysical and social aspects in order to better anticipate the possible future co-evolution of water systems and society. We also present a call to enhance the dialogue and foster the actions of governments, the international scientific community, research funding agencies and additional stakeholders in order to develop effective solutions to support water resources systems adaptation. Finally, we call the scientific community to a renewed and unified effort to deliver an innovative message to stakeholders. Water science is essential to resolve the water crisis, but the effectiveness of solutions depends, inter alia, on the capability of scientists to deliver a new, coherent and technical vision for the future development of water systems.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Chemical Telemetry of OH Observed to Measure Interstellar Magnetic Fields

We present models for the chemistry in gas moving towards the ionization front of an HII region. When it is far from the ionization front, the gas is highly depleted of elements more massive than helium. However, as it approaches the ionization front, ices are destroyed and species formed on the grain surfaces are injected into the gas phase. Photodissociation removes gas phase molecular species as the gas flows towards the ionization front. We identify models for which the OH column densities are comparable to those measured in observations undertaken to study the magnetic fields in star forming regions and give results for the column densities of other species that should be abundant if the observed OH arises through a combination of the liberation of H₂O from surfaces and photodissociation. They include CH₃OH, H₂CO, and H₂S. Observations of these other species may help establish the nature of the OH spatial distribution in the clouds, which is important for the interpretation of the magnetic field results.     

Multiparametric Approach in Investigating Volcano-Hydrothermal Systems: the Case Study of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy)

Seismic activity, ground deformation, and soil and fumarole temperatures acquired during 2004–2007 at Vulcano (Aeolian Islands) are analysed and the time relations among the different time series are discussed. Changes in temperature of fumarolic gases took place during four “anomalous” periods (November 2004–March 2005; October 2005–February 2006; August–October 2006; July–December 2007) at the same time as an increasing number of volcano-seismic events. In particular, the temperatures at high temperature vents and at steam heated soil ranged in time from 180 to 440°C and from 20 to 90°C, respectively. The maximum daily number of volcano-seismic events was 57, reached during the second anomalous period. This seismicity, characterised by focal depth generally lower than 1?km below sea level (b.s.l.) and composed of different kinds of events associated to both resonance and shear failure processes, is related to the shallow dynamics of the hydrothermal system. During the analysed period, very few volcano-tectonic earthquakes took place and tilt recordings showed no sharp or important changes. In light of such observations, the increases in both temperature and volcano-seismic events number were associated to increases in the release of gas from a deep and stable magma body, without magma intrusions within the shallow hydrothermal system. Indeed, a greater release of gas from depth leads to increased fluid circulation, that can promote increases in volcano-seismic events number by both fracturing processes and resonance and vibration in cracks and conduits. The different trends observed in the measured geochemical and geophysical series during the anomalous periods can be due to either time changes in the medium permeability or a changing speed of gas release from a deep magma body. Finally, all the observed variations, together with the changing temporal distribution of the different seismic event kinds, suggest that the hydrothermal system at Vulcano can be considered unsteady and dynamic.     

Damage assessment of fortresses after the 2012 Emilia earthquake (Italy)

The medieval fortresses are a very common and distinctive type among the Emilian historical constructions and the earthquake of May 20 and 29, 2012 highlighted their high vulnerability. Starting from the analysis of the geometrical and constructive features, the interpretation of their seismic vulnerability has been based on an accurate damage assessment and supported by the numerical results of typical configurations. An abacus of recurring seismic damage mechanisms in fortresses has been proposed: it in particular concerns the towers and their interaction with the fortress perimeter walls. Moreover, the seismic response of the most important fortresses in the epicentral area has been described referring to their historical notes, the recent interventions and their influence on the seismic damage.     

EXOTIME: searching for planets around pulsating subdwarf B stars

In 2007, a companion with planetary mass was found around the pulsating subdwarf B star V391 Pegasi with the timing method, indicating that a previously undiscovered population of substellar companions to apparently single subdwarf B stars might exist. Following this serendipitous discovery, the EXOTIME (http://www.na.astro.it/~silvotti/exotime/) monitoring program has been set up to follow the pulsations of a number of selected rapidly pulsating subdwarf B stars on time scales of several years with two immediate observational goals:

1. determine $\dot{P}$ of the pulsational periods P
2. search for signatures of substellar companions in O–C residuals due to periodic light travel time variations, which would be tracking the central star’s companion-induced wobble around the centre of mass

These sets of data should therefore, at the same time, on the one hand be useful to provide extra constraints for classical asteroseismological exercises from the $\dot{P}$ (comparison with “local” evolutionary models), and on the other hand allow one to investigate the preceding evolution of a target in terms of possible “binary” evolution by extending the otherwise unsuccessful search for companions to potentially very low masses. While timing pulsations may be an observationally expensive method to search for companions, it samples a different range of orbital parameters, inaccessible through orbital photometric effects or the radial velocity method: the latter favours massive close-in companions, whereas the timing method becomes increasingly more sensitive toward wider separations. In this paper we report on the status of the on-going observations and coherence analysis for two of the currently five targets, revealing very well-behaved pulsational characteristics in HS?0444+0458, while showing HS?0702+6043 to be more complex than previously thought.