Discovery of Earth's quasi‐satellite

Abstract— The newly discovered asteroid 2003 YN₁₀₇ is currently a quasi‐satellite of the Earth, making a satellite‐like orbit of high inclination with apparent period of one year. The term quasi‐satellite is used since these large orbits are not completely closed, but rather perturbed portions of the asteroid's orbit around the Sun. Due to its extremely Earth‐like orbit, this asteroid is influenced by Earth's gravity to remain within 0.1 AU of the Earth for approximately 10 years (1997 to 2006). Prior to this, it had been on a horseshoe orbit closely following Earth's orbit for several hundred years. It will re‐enter such an orbit, and make one final libration of 123 years, after which it will have a close interaction with the Earth and transition to a circulating orbit. Chaotic effects limit our ability to determine the origin or fate of this object.     

Origin of oort cloud comets in the interstellar space

Comets must form a major part of the interstellar medium. The solar system provides a flux of comets into the interstellar space and there is no reason to suspect that many other stars and their surrounding cometary systems would not make a similar contribution. Occasionally interstellar comets must pass through the inner solar system, but Whipple (1975) considers it unlikely that such a comet is among the known cases of apparently hyperbolic comets. Even so the upper limit for the density of unobserved interstellar comets is relatively high.In addition, we must consider the possibility that comets are a genuine component of interstellar medium, and that the Oort Cloud is merely a captured part of it (McCrea, 1975). Here we review various dynamical possibilities of two-way exchange of comet populations between the Solar System and the interstellar medium. We describe ways in which a traditional Oort Cloud (Oort, 1950) could be captured from the interstellar medium. However, we note that the so called Kuiper belt (Kuiper, 1951) of comets cannot arise through this process. Therefore we have to ask how necessary the concept of the yet unobserved Kuiper belt is for the theory of short period comets.There has been considerable debate about the question whether short period comets can be understood as a captured population of the Oort Cloud of comets or whether an additional source has to be postulated. The problem is made difficult by the long integration times of comet orbits through the age of the Solar System. It would be better to have an accurate treatment of comet-planet encounters in a statistical sense, in the form of cross sections, and to carry out Monte Carlo studies. Here we describe the plan of action and initial results of the work to derive cross sections by carrying out large numbers of comet — planet encounters and by deriving approximate analytic expressions for them. Initially comets follow parabolic orbits of arbitrary inclination and perihelion distance; cross sections are derived for obtaining orbits of given energy and inclination after the encounter. The results are used in subsequent work to make evolutionary models of the comet population.     

Computations on the influence of changing climate on the soil moisture and productivity in scots pine stands in southern and northern Finland

A model computation on the evaporative demand in relation to precipitation indicated that, under a changing climate with elevating temperatures, evapotranspiration could exceed the concurrent precipitation during the growing period in southern Finland (61° N), but not in northern Finland (66° N). This could reduce the supply of soil water to enable tree growth on sites with soil of low water holding capacity. This in turn could reduce the productivity of Scots pine more in southern Finland than in northern Finland. In northern Finland, the reduction in growth due to a limited supply of water was partly compensated by the enhanced growth due to a rise in temperature outside dry periods.     

Model Computations of the Impact of Climatic Change on the Windthrow Risk of Trees

The more humid, warmer weather pattern predicted for the future is expected to increase the windthrow risk of trees through reduced tree anchorage due to a decrease in soil freezing between late autumn and early spring, i.e during the most windy months of the year. In this context, the present study aimed at calculating how a potential increase of up to 4°C in mean annual temperature might modify the duration of soil frost and the depth of frozen soil in forests and consequently increase the risk of windthrow. The risk was evaluated by combining the simulated critical windspeeds needed to uproot Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) under unfrozen soil conditions with the possible change in the frequency of these winds during the unfrozen period. The evaluation of the impacts of elevated temperature on the frequency of these winds at times of unfrozen and frozen soil conditions was based on monthly wind speed statistics for the years 1961–1990 (Meteorological Yearbooks of Finland, 1961–1990). Frost simulations in a Scots pine stand growing on a moraine sandy soil (height 20 m, stand density 800 stems ha–1) showed that the duration of soil frost will decrease from 4–5 months to 2–3 months per year in southern Finland and from 5–6 months to 4–5 months in northern Finland given a temperature elevation of 4°C. In addition, it could decrease substantially more in the deeper soil layers (40–60 cm) than near the surface (0–20 cm), particularly in southern Finland. Consequently, tree anchorage may lose much of the additional support gained at present from the frozen soil in winter, making Scots pines more liable to windthrow during winter and spring storms. Critical wind-speed simulations showed mean winds of 11–15 m s–1 to be enough to uproot Scots pines under unfrozen soil conditions, i.e. especially slender trees with a high height to breast height diameter ratio (taper of 1:120 and 1:100). In the future, as many as 80% of these mean winds of 11–15 m s–1 would occur during months when the soil is unfrozen in southern Finland, whereas the corresponding proportion at present is about 55%. In northern Finland, the percentage is 40% today and is expected to be 50% in the future. Thus, as the strongest winds usually occur between late autumn and early spring, climate change could increase the loss of standing timber through windthrow, especially in southern Finland.     

Model computations on the effect of rising temperature on soil moisture and water availability in forest ecosystems dominated by scots pine in the boreal zone in Finland

Based on model calculations, the moisture of soil for sites with and without a cover of trees under the current and rising temperature was studied assuming a 5 °C increase in annual mean temperature over a period of 100 years. The calculation for southern Finland (61°N) showed that the soil moisture under elevated temperature could be reduced compared to that under current temperature conditions. This was also true for northern Finland (66°N), but there the reduction in soil moisture was less substantial. In particular, when trees were present, the soil moisture during the growing season was reduced due to enhanced evapotranspiration. In the presence of trees, the moisture content of the surface soil was only half that under the current temperature. In these conditions, reduced accumulation of snow and a thin humus layer allowed the soil to freeze to deep layers, thereby causing further reduction in soil moisture due to poor transfer of water deeper in the soil.     

Impacts of climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland

This work studied the temporal and spatial variability of the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland under current and changing climatic conditions until the end of this century. The study was based on a snow accumulation model in which cumulative precipitation, air temperature and wind speed were used as input variables. The risk was analyzed in terms of the number of days per year when the accumulated amount of snow exceeded 20 kg m^???2. Based on the risk, the forest area and mean carbon stock of seedling, young thinning and advanced thinning stands at risk were calculated. Furthermore, the number of 5-day periods, when the accumulated amount of snow exceeded a risk limit, was calculated for the current and changing climatic conditions in order to study the frequency of damaging snowfalls. Compared to the baseline period 1961–1990, the risk of snow-induced forest damage and the amount of damaging snowfalls were predicted to decrease from the first 30-year period (1991–2020) onwards. Over the whole country, the mean annual number of risk days decreased by 11%, 23% and 56% in the first, second and third 30-year period, respectively, compared to the baseline period. In the most hazardous areas in north-western and north-eastern Finland, the number of risk days decreased from the baseline period of over 30 days to about 8 days per year at the end of the century. Correspondingly, the shares of the forest area at risk were 1.9%, 2.0% and 1.0% in the first, second and third 30-year period, respectively. The highest mean annual carbon stocks of young stands at risk were found in central, north-eastern and north-western Finland in the first and second 30-year period, varying between 0.6 and 1.2 Mg C ha^???1 year^???1, meaning at highest 3% of the mean carbon stock (Mg C stem wood ha^???1) of those areas. This study showed that although the risk of snow-induced forest damage was mainly affected by changes in critical weather events, the development of growing stock under the changing climatic conditions also had an effect on the risk assessment. However, timely management of forest stands in the areas with a high risk of snow-induced damage contributes to the trees’ increased resistance to the damage.     

Model Computations on the Effects of Elevating Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 on the Regeneration of Scots Pine at the Timber Line in Finland

Based on model computations, the regeneration of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) was studied at the northern timber line in Finland (70°N) in relation to elevating temperature and atmospheric CO₂. If a transient increase of 4°C was assumed during the next 100 years, the length of growing season increased from the current 110–120 days to 150–160 days. This was associated with ca. 5°C increase in the soil temperature over June–August with larger variability in temperature and deeper freezing of the soil due to the reduced depth and duration of the snow cover. At the same time, the moisture content of the surface soil decreased ca. 10% and was more variable, due to less infiltration of water into the soil as a consequence of the enhanced evapotranspiration and deeper freezing of the soil. The temperature elevation alone, or combined with elevating CO₂, increased flowering and the subsequent seed crop of Scots pine with a decrease in the frequency of zero crops. In both cases, temperature elevation substantially increased the success of regeneration in terms of the number of seedlings produced after each seed crop. The increasing number of mature seeds was mainly responsible for the enhanced regeneration, but increasing soil temperature also increased the success of regeneration. The soil moisture was seldom limited for seed germination. In terms of the density of seedling stands, and the height and diameter growth of the seedlings, the establishment of a seedling stand was substantially improved under the combined elevation of temperature and CO₂ in such a way that the temperature increased the number of mature seeds and enhanced germination of seeds and CO₂ increased seedling growth. Even under the changing climatic conditions, however, the growth of the seedling stands was slow, which indicated that the northward advance of the timber line would probably be very slow, even though regeneration was no longer a limiting factor.     

Climate change impacts on forest fire potential in boreal conditions in Finland

The aim of this work was to study the forest fire potential and frequency of forest fires under the projected climate change in Finland (N 60°–N 70°). Forest fire index, generally utilized in Finland, was used as an indicator for forest fire potential due to climatological parameters. Climatic scenarios were based on the A2 emission scenario. According to the results, the forest fire potential will have increased by the end of this century; as a result of increased evaporative demand, which will increase more than the rise in precipitation and especially in southern Finland. The annual number of forest fire alarm days is expected to increase in southern Finland to 96–160 days by the end of this century, compared to the current 60–100 days. In the north, the corresponding increase was from 30 to 36 days. The expected increase in the annual frequency of forest fires over the whole country was about 20% by the end of this century compared to the present day. The greatest increase in the frequency of fires, per 1,000 km², was in the southernmost part of the country, with six to nine fires expected annually per 1,000 km² at the end of this century, meaning a 24–29% increase compared to the present day frequencies.     

Carbon balance in the forest sector in Finland during 1990–2039

In this study we estimated the amount of carbon (C) stored in the forest growing stock and in wood-based products, and the C-sequestration capacity of the forest sector in Finland. Comparison of different management and utilization options for forest resources over the period 1990-2039 indicates that C is stored more efficiently in standing timber than in wood-based products. This implies that an appropriate increase in the length of the rotation in forestry could be optimal for balancing the needs of forest resources for C sequestration and timber production. Increased use of wood, based on sustainable use of forest resources, to substitute for fossil fuels and materials, could decrease the overall C emissions. Release of sequestered C back to the atmosphere can be delayed by prolonging product lifespans, by increasing recycling, or by disposing of discarded products in landfills. To delay C release, and affect the C balance, however, these changes should be substantial.In 1990, the net C balance of the growing stemwood stock was 5.5 Tg C/a, which increased to 16.3 Tg C/a by 2039 if in the future the use of wood would be at the level of the late 1980s. Increased use of wood resulted in a balance of 6.6 Tg C/a or -0.2 Tg C/a, depending on the extent of the use of wood. The average C balance in wood products for the whole period was 3.9, 5.6 or 6.6 Tg C/a, respectively. Changes in production capacity, and consideration of timber and product import and export decreased the average balance from 6.6 Tg C/a to 0.9–1.3 Tg C/a. By comparison, emission from the use of fossil fuels in 1990 C was 14.5 Tg C/a.     

Wet Canopy Evaporation Rate of Three Stands in Western Sichuan, China

The wet canopy evaporation rate (Er) was calculated by Penman-Monteith combination model based on three assumptions and with meteorological variables 2 m above the canopy in three stands, dominated by spruce (SF), fir (FF) and birch (BF) trees, respectively, in the subalpine forests in western Sichuan, China over a growing season. The total amount of the E was 44.5 mm for SF, 88.5 mm for FF and 57.8 mm for BF, accounting for 9.2%, 16.6% and 10.2% of the gross rainfall, respectively, in the measuring period. There was the highest average monthly Er and percentage of E to gross rainfall for FF compared with SF and BF.Mean Er was 0.097 mm h^-1 (ranging from 0.028 to0.487 mm h^-1), 0.242 mm h^-1 (from 0.068 to 0.711 mm h^-1) and 0.149 mm h^-1 (from 0.060 to 0.576 mm h^-1) for SF, FF and BF, respectively. The highest average monthly Er occurred in June was 0.120 mm h^-1 for SF, 0.317 mm h^-1for FF and 0.169 mm h^-1 for BF, and the lowest value in October was 0.083 mm h^-1 for SF, 0.187 mm h^-1 for FF and 0.101 mm h^-1 for BF, respectively. The averages of Er from 8:00 to16:00 were significantly higher than those from 0:00 to 8:00 and from 16:00 to 0:00 for the three stands. The marked daily and monthly differences of Er were contributable to the variations of solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity above the canopy.