Sampling uncertainties and source <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value from the Aki-Utsu method

The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b _m , N, M ₁, M ₂) that an observed b _m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M ₁????≤?ΔM/2,?M ₂?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.     

A geostatistical protocol to optimize spatial sampling of domestic drinking water supplies in remote environments

This paper deals with the design of optimal spatial sampling of water quality variables in remote regions, where logistics are complicated and the optimization of monitoring networks may be critical to maximize the effectiveness of human and material resources. A methodology that combines the probability of exceeding some particular thresholds with a measurement of the information provided by each pair of experimental points has been introduced. This network optimization concept, where the basic unit of information is not a single spatial location but a pair of spatial locations, is used to emphasize the locations with the greatest information, which are those at the border of the phenomenon (for example contamination or a quality variable exceeding a given threshold), that is, where the variable at one of the locations in the pair is above the threshold value and the other is below the threshold. The methodology is illustrated with a case of optimizing the monitoring network by optimal selection of the subset that best describes the information provided by an exhaustive survey done at a given moment in time but which cannot be repeated systematically due to time or economic constrains.     

Instability in spatial error models: an application to the hypothesis of convergence in the European case

This paper focuses on the hypothesis of stability in the mechanisms of spatial dependence that are usually employed in spatial econometric models. We propose a specification strategy for which the first step is to solve a local estimation algorithm, called the Zoom estimation. The aim of this stage is to detect problems of heterogeneity in the parameters and to identify the regimes. Then we resort to a battery of formal Lagrange Multipliers to test the assumption of stability in the processes of spatial dependence. The alternative hypothesis consists of the existence of several regimes in these parameters. A small Monte Carlo serves to confirm the behaviour of this strategy in a context of finite size samples. As an illustration, we solve an application to the case of the hypothesis of convergence for the per capita income in the European regions. Our results reveal the existence of a strong Centre-Periphery dichotomy in which instability extends to all the elements (coefficients of regression as well as parameters of spatial dependence) that intervene in a classical conditional β-convergence model.     

On Sinkholes and Galaxies: An Example of Fractal Universality

Mathematical Geosciences - The universality of fractals implies that very different physical processes can give rise to similar complex spatial patterns. Sinkholes (dolines) and galaxies provide a...     

Analysis of the trends in precipitation and precipitation concentration in some climatological stations of Mexico from 1960 to 2010

Natural Hazards - Analysis of precipitation trends as well as the observed trends in precipitation concentration can be useful tools for the identification of natural hazards. This study aimed to...     

Streamflow elasticity,in a context of climate change,in arid Andean watersheds of north-central Chile

ABSTRACT

Based on a future temperature increase of 0.5°C and precipitation decrease of 25%, the climate elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and temperature changes in 12 Andean watersheds of the Coquimbo Region, north-central Chile, was assessed. Also, the possible relationships between this elasticity and specific physiographic characteristics of the watersheds (area, average elevation, slope distribution, terrain roughness, slope orientation, vegetation cover) were studied. Climate elasticity of streamflow ranged between 0 and 2.8. Watersheds presenting higher elevations, with a fairly well-balanced distribution of slope exposure tend to exhibit lower elasticity, which could be explained by the contribution of snowfall to the hydrological regime, more significant in those watersheds. Results should be considered when downscaling climate model projections at the basin scale in mountain settings. Finally, uncertainties in the approach, given by factors such as streamflow seasonality, data availability and representativeness and watershed characteristics, and therefore the scope of the results, are discussed.     

Biocrust landscape-scale spatial distribution is strongly controlled by terrain attributes: Topographic thresholds for colonization in a semiarid badland system

Biological soil crust, or biocrust communities, are the dominating life form in many extreme habitats, such as arid and semiarid badlands, where water scarcity and highly erodible substrates limit vegetation cover. While climate, soil and biotic factors have been described as environmental filters influencing biocrust distribution in such biomes, little is known about the effect of terrain attributes on creating specific microhabitats that promote or restrict biocrust colonization. This study aimed to identify the main terrain attributes controlling biocrust distribution in the driest badland system in Europe, the Tabernas Badlands (SE Spain). To do this, we analysed the influence of different terrain attributes related to landscape stability and microclimate formation on the spatial distribution of lichen and cyanobacteria, using field measurements and topographical information from a LiDAR survey. Our results showed that the spatial distribution of cyanobacteria-dominated biocrusts, which are physiologically and morphologically adapted to extreme drought and high UVA radiation, was mostly associated with areas of high potential incoming solar radiation. The exception was bare south-aspect hillslopes with very high sediment transport potential, where bare physically crusted soils were the dominant ground cover. Lichen-dominated biocrusts, in contrast, colonized near the top of north-aspect hillslopes, characterized by low potential incoming solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and their cover decreased downstream, as conditions became good enough for vascular plants. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling multiple wave systems in the eastern equatorial Pacific

Ocean Dynamics - While moderate wind and wave conditions prevail in the eastern equatorial Pacific, modeling waves in this area remains challenging due to the presence of multiple wave systems...     

Environmental factors influencing aggregation of manta rays (Manta birostris) off the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula

Manta rays inhabit tropical, subtropical and temperate waters. Aggregation sites of manta rays have been recognized worldwide, but the reasons for this behavior are still poorly understood. This study describes environmental factors influencing aggregation sites of the giant manta ray (Manta birostris) off the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Observations of manta rays were obtained from scientific surveys conducted during 2006–2011. Environmental data were obtained from satellite imagery. The maximum entropy (Maxent) method for habitat modeling was used to determine the effects of environmental conditions on the species and predict suitable habitat for manta rays in this region. Primary productivity and distance to the coast were the most influential variables, suggesting that aggregation occurs in highly productive coastal waters. The distribution of manta rays predicted by the Maxent model showed that the most suitable habitat within the study area is located off the northeastern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula, more precisely, northeast of Isla Holbox and northwest of Isla Contoy. Seasonal patterns of distribution suggest that the most suitable conditions are present from July through September.     

Superposition of tectonic structures leading elongated intramontane basin: the Alhabia basin (Internal Zones,Betic Cordillera)

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The relief of the Betic Cordillera was formed since the late Serravallian inducing the development of intramontane basins. The Alhabia basin, situated in...