What future for the voluntary carbon offset market after Paris? An explorative study based on the Discursive Agency Approach

The Paris Agreement heralds a new era in international climate governance. Yet, the Agreement's implementation rulebook is still under negotiation. During this transition, from the Kyoto Protocol to the new regime under the Paris Agreement, many non-state actors are facing a high level of uncertainty. In particular, actors in the voluntary carbon market are struggling to define their new role. The business model of producing carbon credits in developing countries and selling them elsewhere is threatened. Although its financial significance and achieved emission reductions are limited, the voluntary market's role as an incubator for innovation has made it a prominent representative of non-state mitigation mechanisms. Therefore, we ask: What effects will the regime change to the Paris Agreement have on the voluntary carbon offset market (VCM) and how does it react to these effects?

This study analyses perceptions of, and reactions to, the new regulatory environment within the VCM. We apply the Discursive Agency Approach to scrutinize the institutions, discourses and influential agents involved in the VCM, and the strategic practices they apply to manage the transition towards the Paris regime. We find two dominant coping strategies: to align the voluntary offsetting mechanism with the Paris Agreement, and to re-invent its overall purpose as a tool to deliver sustainable development rather than solely emission reductions. Based on these results, we outline ‘thought spaces’ for a future VCM: (1) voluntary and non-party offsetting beyond nationally determined contributions (NDCs), (2) results-based financing for emission reductions and sustainable development, and (3) private climate action under international oversight.

Key policy insights

• The Paris Agreement threatens the VCM's business model, prompting market agents to frame and legitimize their work in new ways.

• The voluntary market's viability depends on the future accounting rules for emission reductions under Paris Agreement Article 6. Discursive struggles surround the risks of double counting and NDC ambitions.

• Based on an understanding of the past, we can draw lessons from agents’ attempts to re-legitimize their role under the new Paris Agreement; their future visions will shape the debates about this nascent regime.

     

Establishing the skill of climate field reconstruction techniques for precipitation with pseudoproxy experiments

Climate Dynamics - This study aims at assessing the skill of several climate field reconstruction techniques (CFR) to reconstruct past precipitation over continental Europe and the Mediterranean at...     

Large-Scale Synoptic Systems and Fog During the C-FOG Field Experiment

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - The goal of this work is to summarize synoptic meteorological conditions during the Coastal Fog (C-FOG) field project that took place onshore and offshore of the Avalon...     

New records of Ediacaran Acraman ejecta in drillholes from the Stuart Shelf and Officer Basin,South Australia

Abstract— New occurrences of the Acraman impact ejecta layer were recently discovered in two South Australian drillholes, SCYW‐79 1a (Stuart Shelf) and Munta 1 (Officer Basin) using lithostratigraphy, acritarch biostratigraphy, carbon isotope stratigraphy, and biomarker anomalies to predict the stratigraphic position. The ejecta layer is conspicuous because it consists of pink, sandsized, angular fragments of volcanic rock distributed along the bedding plane surface of green marine siltstone. In SCYW‐79 1a it forms a layer 5 mm thick; in Munta 1 the ejecta layer is thin and discontinuous because of its distance (?550 km) from the impact structure. Palynological, biomarker, and carbon isotope anomalies can now be shown to coincide with the ejecta layer in SCYW‐79 1a and Munta 1 suggesting the Acraman impact event may have had far reaching influences on the rapidly evolving Ediacaran biological and geochemical cycles.     

Summer rainstorm associated with a debris flow in the Amarilla gully affecting the international Agua Negra Pass (30°20′S), Argentina

The Central-West region of Argentina was seriously affected by a series of convective summer storms on January–February of 2013 generating many debris flows and rockfall in the Central Andes mountain regions. In particular, the unreported 8th February event caused the sad death of a 10-year-old child being completely ignored by society and local authorities. Despite this, meteorological conditions associated with this event and further episodes were rarely measured and determined mainly due to scarce meteorological stations in Andean mountain areas. In this paper, meteorological data from CMORPH algorithm and measurements of surrounding gauges were analyzed for estimating the triggering precipitation value of this event. As well, the particular debris flow channeled into the main branch of the Amarilla gully in the Agua Negra valley was geomorphologically described. The amount of precipitation associated with this debris flow was 5.5 and 13.2 mm accumulated previous to the event. This violent debris flow was generated in a talus zone in a periglacial environment located just below a covered rock glacier. However, the influence of the permafrost thawing in this process is not feasible. The altitude of the 0 °C isotherm was lower during the previous days of the event, and no monitoring on permafrost is available for this area. The volume of removed mass was estimated in 5 × 10⁴ m³, and the mean velocity was 35 km/h. Boulders of 4 m diameter were found in the source area, while the deposit is up to 75% sandy with clasts that hardly exceed 10 cm in the alluvial fan distal part. Herein the main objective is to advice about the probable catastrophic impact of similar events in the future. These findings could be useful for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Agua Negra international pass under construction.     

On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate Model

Most of the current coupled general circulation models show a strong warm bias in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. In this paper, various sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are described. A largely reduced warm bias and an improved seasonal cycle in the eastern Tropical Atlantic are simulated in one particular version of KCM. By comparing the stable and well-tested standard version with the sensitivity experiments and the modified version, mechanisms contributing to the reduction of the eastern Atlantic warm bias are identified and compared to what has been proposed in literature. The error in the spring and early summer zonal winds associated with erroneous zonal precipitation seems to be the key mechanism, and large-scale coupled ocean?Catmosphere feedbacks play an important role in reducing the warm bias. Improved winds in boreal spring cause the summer cooling in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (ETA) via shoaling of the thermocline and increased upwelling, and hence reduced sea surface temperature (SST). Reduced SSTs in the summer suppress convection and favor the development of low-level cloud cover in the ETA region. Subsurface ocean structure is shown to be improved, and potentially influences the development of the bias. The strong warm bias along the southeastern coastline is related to underestimation of low-level cloud cover and the associated overestimation of surface shortwave radiation in the same region. Therefore, in addition to the primarily wind forced response at the equator both changes in surface shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation contribute significantly to reduction of the warm bias from summer to fall.     

The planet formation imager

The Planet Formation Imager (PFI, www.planetformationimager.org) is a next-generation infrared interferometer array with the primary goal of imaging the active phases of planet formation in nearby star forming regions. PFI will be sensitive to warm dust emission using mid-infrared capabilities made possible by precise fringe tracking in the near-infrared. An L/M band combiner will be especially sensitive to thermal emission from young exoplanets (and their disks) with a high spectral resolution mode to probe the kinematics of CO and H₂O gas. In this paper, we give an overview of the main science goals of PFI, define a baseline PFI architecture that can achieve those goals, point at remaining technical challenges, and suggest activities today that will help make the Planet Formation Imager facility a reality.     

STAGES: the Space Telescope A901/2 Galaxy Evolution Survey

We present an overview of the Space Telescope A901/2 Galaxy Evolution Survey (STAGES). STAGES is a multiwavelength project designed to probe physical drivers of galaxy evolution across a wide range of environments and luminosity. A complex multicluster system at   z ∼ 0.165  has been the subject of an 80-orbit F606W Hubble Space Telescope (HST) /Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) mosaic covering the full     span of the supercluster. Extensive multiwavelength observations with XMM–Newton , GALEX, Spitzer , 2dF, Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope and the 17-band COMBO-17 photometric redshift survey complement the HST imaging. Our survey goals include simultaneously linking galaxy morphology with other observables such as age, star formation rate, nuclear activity and stellar mass. In addition, with the multiwavelength data set and new high-resolution mass maps from gravitational lensing, we are able to disentangle the large-scale structure of the system. By examining all aspects of an environment we will be able to evaluate the relative importance of the dark matter haloes, the local galaxy density and the hot X-ray gas in driving galaxy transformation. This paper describes the HST imaging, data reduction and creation of a master catalogue. We perform the Sérsic fitting on the HST images and conduct associated simulations to quantify completeness. In addition, we present the COMBO-17 photometric redshift catalogue and estimates of stellar masses and star formation rates for this field. We define galaxy and cluster sample selection criteria, which will be the basis for forthcoming science analyses, and present a compilation of notable objects in the field. Finally, we describe the further multiwavelength observations and announce public access to the data and catalogues.     

Scanning sky monitor (SSM) onboard AstroSat

Scanning Sky Monitor (SSM) onboard AstroSat is an Xray sky monitor in the soft X-ray band designed with a large field of view to detect and locate transient X-ray sources and alert the astronomical community about interesting phenomena in the X-ray sky. SSM comprises position sensitive proportional counters with 1D coded mask for imaging. There are three detector units mounted on a platform capable of rotation which helps covering about 50% of the sky in one full rotation. This paper discusses the elaborate details of the instrument and few immediate results from the instrument after launch.