Earthquake activity related to seismic cycles in a model for a heterogeneous strike-slip fault

We investigate the evolution of seismicity within large earthquake cycles in a model of a discrete strike-slip fault in elastic solid. The model dynamics is governed by realistic boundary conditions consisting of constant velocity motion of regions around the fault, static/kinetic friction and dislocation creep along the fault, and 3D elastic stress transfer. The fault consists of brittle parts which fail during earthquakes and undergo small creep deformation between events, and aseismic creep cells which are characterized by high ongoing creep motion. This mixture of brittle and creep cells is found to generate realistic aftershock sequences which follow the modified Omori law and scale with the mainshock size. Furthermore, we find that the distribution of interevent times of the simulated earthquakes is in good agreement with observations. The temporal occurrence, however, is magnitude-dependent; in particular, the small events are clustered in time, whereas the largest earthquakes occur quasiperiodically. Averaging the seismicity before several large earthquakes, we observe an increase of activity and a broadening scaling range of magnitudes when the time of the next mainshock is approached. These results are characteristics of a critical point behavior. The presence of critical point dynamics is further supported by the evolution of the stress field in the model, which is compatible with the observation of accelerating moment release in natural fault systems.     

The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005, 15–42 ka. Part 2: comparison to other records

A new Greenland Ice Core Chronology (GICC05) based on multi-parameter counting of annual layers has been obtained for the last 42 ka. Here we compare the glacial part of the new time scale, which is based entirely on records from the NorthGRIP ice core, to existing time scales and reference horizons covering the same period. These include the GRIP and NorthGRIP modelled time scales, the Meese-Sowers GISP2 counted time scale, the Shackleton–Fairbanks GRIP time scale (SFCP04) based on ¹⁴C calibration of a marine core, the Hulu Cave record, three volcanic reference horizons, and the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion event occurring around Greenland Interstadial 10. GICC05 is generally in good long-term agreement with the existing Greenland ice core chronologies and with the Hulu Cave record, but on shorter time scales there are significant discrepancies. Around the Last Glacial Maximum there is a more than 1 ka age difference between GICC05 and SFCP04 and a more than 0.5 ka discrepancy in the same direction between GICC05 and the age of a recently identified tephra layer in the NorthGRIP ice core. Both SFCP04 and the tephra age are based on ¹⁴C-dated marine cores and fixed marine reservoir ages. For the Laschamp event, GICC05 agrees with a recent independent dating within the uncertainties.     

Statistical EOF analysis of spatiotemporal glacier mass-balance variability: a case study of Mittivakkat Gletscher,SE Greenland

An Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) variance analysis was performed to map in detail the spatiotemporal variability in individual stake mass-balances (ba) on Mittivakkat Gletscher (MG) – in a region where at present five out of ~20.000 glaciers have mass-balance observations. The EOF analysis suggested that observed ba was summarized by two modes: EOF1 and EOF2 represented 80% (significant) and 6% (insignificant) of the explained variance, respectively. EOF1 captured a decline in ba that was uniformly distributed in space at all stakes. The decline was correlated with albedo observations and air temperature observations from nearby stations. EOF2, however, described variations in ba that were heterogeneously distributed among stakes and associated with local slope and aspect. Low elevation stakes (~<400 m a.s.l.) showed relatively negative (out of phase) correlation and higher elevated stakes relatively positive (in phase) eigenvector correlation values with EOF2. Such relatively negative and positive eigenvector correlation values were present where the constituted of exposed glacier ice or snow cover, respectively. The results from this study show how EOF analyses can provide information on spatiotemporal patterns of glacier mass-balance. Understanding such detailed variabilities in mass-balance on a Greenlandic glacier is of interest because a fifth of the Arctic contribution from glaciers and ice caps to sea-level rise originates from Greenland.     

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.     

Water level changes in Lake Van,Turkey, during the past ca. 600 ka: climatic,volcanic and tectonic controls

Sediments of Lake Van, Turkey, preserve one of the most complete records of continental climate change in the Near East since the Middle Pleistocene. We used seismic reflection profiles to infer past changes in lake level and discuss potential causes related to changes in climate, volcanism, and regional tectonics since the formation of the lake ca. 600 ka ago. Lake Van’s water level ranged by as much as 600 m during the past ~600 ka. Five major lowstands occurred, at ~600, ~365–340, ~290–230, ~150–130 and ~30–14 ka. During Stage A, between about 600 and 230 ka, lake level changed dramatically, by hundreds of meters, but phases of low and high stands were separated by long time intervals. Changes in the lake level were more frequent during the past ~230 ka, but less dramatic, on the order of a few tens of meters. We identified period B1 as a time of stepwise transgressions between ~230 and 150 ka, followed by a short regression between ca. 150 and 130 ka. Lake level rose stepwise during period B2, until ~30 ka. During the past ~30 ka, a regression and a final transgression occurred, each lasting about 15 ka. The major lowstand periods in Lake Van occurred during glacial periods, suggesting climatic control on water level changes (i.e. greatly reduced precipitation led to lower lake levels). Although climate forcing was the dominant cause for dramatic water level changes in Lake Van, volcanic and tectonic forcing factors may have contributed as well. For instance, the number of distinct tephra layers, some several meters thick, increases dramatically in the uppermost ~100 m of the sediment record (i.e. the past ~230 ka), an interval that coincides largely with low-magnitude lake level fluctuations. Tectonic activity, highlighted by extensional and/or compressional faults across the basin margins, probably also affected the lake level of Lake Van in the past.     

Stability of ion-acoustic waves in a pair-ion plasma with a third species of ions: application to cometary plasmas

A popular model of a cometary plasma is hydrogen (H⁺) with positively charged oxygen (O⁺) as a heavier ion component. However, the discovery of negatively charged oxygen (O^?) ions enables one to model a cometary plasma as a pair-ion plasma (of O⁺ and O^?) with hydrogen as a third ion constituent. We have, therefore, studied the stability of the ion-acoustic wave in such a pair-ion plasma with hydrogen and electrons streaming with velocities $V_{d\mathrm{H}^{+}}$ and V _de , respectively, relative to the oxygen ions. We find the calculated frequency of the ion-acoustic wave with this model to be in good agreement with the observed frequencies. The ion-acoustic wave can also be driven unstable by the streaming velocity of the hydrogen ions. The growth rate increases with increasing hydrogen density $n_{\mathrm{H}^{+}}$ , and streaming velocities $V_{d\mathrm{H}^{+}}$ and V _de . It, however, decreases with increasing oxygen ion densities $n_{\mathrm{O}^{+}}$ and $n_{\mathrm{O}^{-}}$ .     

Stability of Electrostatic Electron Cyclotron Waves in a Multi-Ion Plasma

We have studied the stability of the electrostatic electron cyclotron wave in a plasma composed of hydrogen, oxygen and electrons. To conform to satellite observations in the low latitude boundary layer we model both the ionic components as drifting perpendicular to the magnetic field. Expressions for the frequency and the growth rate of the wave have been derived. We find that the plasma can support electron cyclotron waves with a frequency slightly greater than the electron cyclotron frequency ω _ce ; these waves can be driven unstable when the drift velocities of both the ions are greater than the phase velocity of the wave. We thus introduce another source of instability for these waves namely multiple ion beams drifting perpendicular to the magnetic field.     

Is the astronomical forcing a reliable and unique pacemaker for climate? A conceptual model study

There is evidence that ice age cycles are paced by astronomical forcing, suggesting some kind of synchronisation phenomenon. Here, we identify the type of such synchronisation and explore systematically its uniqueness and robustness using a simple paleoclimate model akin to the van der Pol relaxation oscillator and dynamical system theory. As the insolation is quite a complex quasiperiodic signal involving different frequencies, the traditional concepts used to define synchronisation to periodic forcing are no longer applicable. Instead, we explore a different concept of generalised synchronisation in terms of (coexisting) synchronised solutions for the forced system, their basins of attraction and instabilities. We propose a clustering technique to compute the number of synchronised solutions, each of which corresponds to a different paleoclimate history. In this way, we uncover multistable synchronisation (reminiscent of phase- or frequency-locking to individual periodic components of astronomical forcing) at low forcing strength, and monostable or unique synchronisation at stronger forcing. In the multistable regime, different initial conditions may lead to different paleoclimate histories. To study their robustness, we analyse Lyapunov exponents that quantify the rate of convergence towards each synchronised solution (local stability), and basins of attraction that indicate critical levels of external perturbations (global stability). We find that even though synchronised solutions are stable on a long term, there exist short episodes of desynchronisation where nearby climate trajectories diverge temporarily (for about 50 kyr). As the attracting trajectory can sometimes lie close to the boundary of its basin of attraction, a small perturbation could quite easily make climate to jump between different histories, reducing the predictability. Our study brings new insight into paleoclimate dynamics and reveals a possibility for the climate system to wander throughout different climatic histories related to preferential synchronisation regimes on obliquity, precession or combinations of both, all over the history of the Pleistocene.