Assessment of three temperature reconstruction methods in the virtual reality of a climate simulation

The performance of statistical climate reconstruction methods in the pre-instrumental period is uncertain, as they are calibrated in a short instrumental period but applied to much longer reconstructions time spans. Here, the virtual reality created by a climate simulation of the past millennium with the model ECHO-G is used as a test bed of three methods to reconstruct the annual Northern Hemisphere temperature. The methods are Composite plus Scaling, the inverse regression method of Mann et al. (Nature 392:779–787, 1998) and a direct principal-components regression method. The testing methodology is based on the construction of pseudo-proxies derived from the climate model output, the application of each of these methods to pseudo-proxy timeseries, and the comparison of their result with the simulated mean temperature. Different structures of the noise have been used to construct pseudo-proxies, ranging from the simulated grid-point precipitation. Also, one sparse and one denser pseudo-proxy network, co-located with two real networks, have been considered. All three methods underestimate the simulated variations of the Northern Hemisphere temperature, but the Composite plus Scaling method clearly displays a better performance and is robust against the different noise models and network size. The most relevant factor determining the skill of the reconstruction appears to be the network size, whereas the different noise models tend to yield similar results.     

A hydrogeological type section for the Duna-Tisza Interfluve, Hungary

The Duna-Tisza Interfluve, Hungary has an agricultural economy but is plagued by severe problems of soil and wetland salinization despite 200 years of intensive research. The study’s objective was to determine the origin of salts and the mechanisms of salinity distribution. To this end, flow-patterns and chemistry of groundwater were evaluated in a 100 km?×?65 km area, with emphasis on the Kolon- and Kelemenszék Lakes region. The lakes are located 13 km apart and have chemically contrasting water and soil types. Two groundwater flow-domains were identified: a gravity-drive meteoric fresh water and an over-pressured deeper domain of saline water. The waters are channeled by a highly permeable gravel aquifer to the surface and may merge near Kelemenszék Lake, causing it to be saline. Kolon Lake receives meteoric groundwater only, hence its fresh chemical character. The cross-formational ascent of the deep waters, combined with the gravitational systems’ geometry and the flow-channeling effect of the near-surface rocks, explains the contrasting chemistry between lakes, and the origin and pattern of soil salinization. The scheme is proposed as a generally valid hydrogeological profile for the interfluve, and has been named the Duna-Tisza Interfluve Hydrogeological Type Section.     

A geologic study of the Juan del Grijalva landslide,the most important mass movement during the last century in Mexico

On November 4th 2007, along the Grijalva River in the state of Chiapas, Mexico, has occurred one of the largest landslides ever known. This landslide, known as Juan del Grijalva, destroyed the town of the same name, killing 20 people, and moved 55 million cubic meters of rock and debris down slope to completely block the Grijalva River. In order to understand the characteristics and factors that triggered the Juan del Grijalva landslide, geologic studies were conducted at the site. The results indicate that the landslide was composed of a lithologic sequence of thin-bedded shales and thin to medium-thick-bedded sandstones. This was faulted into several blocks dipping in the same sense as the mass movement. The main triggering factor was the increment of the pore pressure into the lithologic unit due to water saturation after 5 days of heavy rain before the incident. According to records from the last century, the Juan del Grijalva mass movement represents one of the largest mass movements recorded all over the world. The risk conditions of the area after the landslide lead to the rapid construction of an artificial channel to drain the accumulating mass of water upstream and therefore prevent a future catastrophic inundation down stream.     

Dissolved nutrient balance and net ecosystem metabolism in a Mediterranean-climate coastal lagoon: San Diego Bay

The temporal and spatial variability of dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP), nitrogen (DIN), carbon (DIC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were studied in order to determine the net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) of San Diego Bay (SDB), a Mediterranean-climate lagoon. A series of four sampling campaigns were carried out during the rainy (January 2000) and the dry (August 2000 and May and September 2001) seasons. During the dry season, temperature, salinity and DIP, DIC and DOC concentrations increased from oceanic values in the outer bay to higher values at the innermost end of the bay. DIP, DIC and DOC concentrations showed a clear offset from conservative mixing implying production of these dissolved materials inside the bay. During the rainy season, DIP and DOC increased to the head, whereas salinity decreased toward the mouth due to land runoff and river discharges. The distributions of DIP and DOC also showed a deviation from conservative mixing in this season, implying a net addition of these dissolved materials during estuarine mixing within the bay. Mass balance calculations showed that SDB consistently exported DIP (2.8–9.8 × 10³ mol P d⁻¹), DIC (263–352 × 10³ mol C d⁻¹) and DOC (198–1233 × 10³ mol C d⁻¹), whereas DIN (5.5–18.2 × 10³ mol N d⁻¹) was exported in all samplings except in May 2001 when it was imported (8.6 × 10³ mol N d⁻¹). The DIP, DIC and DOC export rates along with the strong relationship between DIP, DIC or DOC and salinity suggest that intense tidal mixing plays an important role in controlling their distributions and that SDB is a source of nutrients and DOC to the Southern California Bight. Furthermore, NEM ranged from −8.1 ± 1.8 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹ in September to −13.5 ± 5.8 mmol C m⁻² d⁻¹ in January, highlighting the heterotrophic character of SDB. In order to explain the net heterotrophy of this system, we postulate that phytoplankton-derived particulate organic matter, stimulated by upwelling processes in the adjacent coastal waters, is transported into the bay, retained and then remineralized within the system. Our results were compared with those reported for the heterotrophic hypersaline coastal lagoons located in the semi-arid coast of California–Baja California, and with those autotrophic hypersaline systems found in the semi-arid areas of Australia. We point out that the balance between autotrophy and heterotrophy in inverse estuaries is dependent on net external inputs of either inorganic nutrients or organic matter as it has been indicated for positive estuaries.     

A comment on determining the induced magnetic field in bodies of arbitrary shape

Summary The authors prove that the solution of Laplace's equation under Neumann's boundary conditions can be transformed to an advantage into determining the field which is generated by charges, induced by the external field at surfaces of discontinuity.     

Tephra stratigraphy on the North Icelandic shelf: extending tephrochronology into marine sediments off North Iceland

Tephra stratigraphical and tephrochronological studies of marine core MD99‐2275 on the North Icelandic shelf have revealed 58 new tephra horizons within the last 7050 cal. a BP, bringing the total number of identified tephra layers to 76. So far, over 100 tephra layers have been identified in the entire core spanning the last 15 000 years. The majority of the newly identified tephra layers are basaltic in composition and originate from the most active volcanic systems in Iceland, namely Grímsvötn, Veidivötn‐Bárdarbunga and Katla. A total of 40 tephra layer land–sea correlations have been made within this time period, of which 16 represent absolutely dated tephra markers. In addition, two tephra marker series are revealed in the marine sediments and in the terrestrial tephra stratigraphy, located between c. 2300–2600 and between 5700–5900 years. For the last 15 000 years, 21 tephra markers have been recognized. The marine tephra layer frequency (TLF) reveals two peaks, within the last 2000 years, and between 5000 and 7000 years ago. It shows the same general characteristics as the terrestrial TLF curve in Iceland, which indicates that marine sediments can yield important information about volcanism in Iceland. This is useful in time segments in which terrestrial records are poor or non‐existent. The study contributes to a high‐resolution tephrochronological framework on the North Icelandic shelf, with core MD99‐2275 representing a potential stratotype section in the area, and for the northern North Atlantic–Nordic Seas region, as well as being an important contribution to the Lateglacial–early Holocene volcanic history of Iceland.     

Trends and evolution of contamination in a well-dated water reservoir sedimentary archive: the Brno Dam, Moravia, Czech Republic

The sedimentary record from dams can provide important information about stratigraphy and pollution history of densely populated river basins. The Brno Dam is a small reservoir within the Morava River catchment (Czech Republic) accumulating lacustrine sediments since 1940 (dam filling). The stratigraphy of the dam sediments was studied using multiproxy stratigraphic analysis (X-ray densitometry, bulk magnetic susceptibility, diffuse spectral reflectance and cation-exchange capacity) of five sediment cores supported by ground-penetration radar sections. Concentrations of heavy metals were studied by X-ray fluorescence analysis. The thickness of the dam sediments decreases from 220 cm in the proximal part, near the feeder, to only 10 cm in the distal part, near the dyke. Sediments consist predominantly of finely-laminated silty sands, silts and clays. The sedimentation rate for the last ~22 years, inferred from ¹³⁷Cs dating, decreases from 4.2 cm per year in the proximal part of the dam to 0.29 cm per year in its distal part. Distinct long-term trends were found in the depth profiles of heavy metal concentrations. The heavy metal contents increase significantly after 1940 in all cores, with peak concentrations confined to layers deposited in the 1960s and 1980s. A decreasing trend occurred after 1989 (the decline in Czech heavy industry). The results also show that heavy metal contamination is dependent on lithology (hyperpycnal flow layers related to floods). Increased concentrations of phosphorus in the sediments indicate long-term eutrophication of the dam. Despite the recent decreasing trends in heavy metal concentrations the phosphorus contents remain high in recent years and have caused persisting problems with algal growth in the dam mentioned by previous authors.     

Temporal and spatial variation of soil erosion in wooded rangelands of southwest Spain

Changes in land use are common in Mediterranean areas and are reported as having produced changes in the intensity of soil erosion. Dehesas are rangelands with a disperse tree cover, widespread in the south-western part of the Iberian Peninsula and similar ecosystems are also common in other areas with a Mediterranean climate. The aim of the present study is to analyse temporal and spatial variations of soil erosion rates estimated along three hillsides, located in two farms (Buitrera and Parapuños) in southwest Spain. To understand the temporal variation, soil erosion rates were studied in light of land use-management changes that took place during the last few centuries. Results indicate very low erosion rates prior to the 18^th century in both farms. In Buitrera, a first increase of soil loss rates was identified during the period 1831-1897, amounting to 7.4 t ha^-1 y^-1. A further increase took place during the 20^th century, reaching a mean erosion rate of 29.1 t ha^-1 y^-1. In Parapuños, data points to a significant increase from 1881 onwards, with an estimated mean erosion rate of 18.5 t ha^-1 y^-1. Those increases were presumably connected with an intensification of land use, such as cultivation and excessive livestock populations. Regarding spatial variation, the bare surface and the erosive power of run-off along the hillsides accounts for 76% of the soil erosion rates dispersion. At a local scale, the variability of erosion rates could not be explained, because of (i) uncertainty related to the micromorphology of the past soil surface and (ii) the role of tillage erosion in the past. However, the results obtained offer valuable data on the temporal and spatial variation of erosion rates in dehesas at the hillslope scale and a similar approach could be used for other rangelands with a disperse tree cover. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.