Effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season using MOGREPS implemented at the KMA

Using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) implemented at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season was evaluated. Because a finite ensemble size causes sampling error in the full forecast probability distribution function (PDF), ensemble size is closely related to the efficiency of the ensemble prediction system. Prediction capability according to doubling the ensemble size was evaluated by increasing the number of ensembles from 24 to 48 in MOGREPS implemented at the KMA. The initial analysis perturbations generated by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) were integrated for 10 days from 22 May to 23 June 2009. Several statistical verification scores were used to measure the accuracy, reliability, and resolution of ensemble probabilistic forecasts for 24 and 48 ensemble member forecasts. Even though the results were not significant, the accuracy of ensemble prediction improved slightly as ensemble size increased, especially for longer forecast times in the Northern Hemisphere. While increasing the number of ensemble members resulted in a slight improvement in resolution as forecast time increased, inconsistent results were obtained for the scores assessing the reliability of ensemble prediction. The overall performance of ensemble prediction in terms of accuracy, resolution, and reliability increased slightly with ensemble size, especially for longer forecast times.     

Active Region Coronal Rain Event Observed by the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph on the NST

The Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) is being operated on the New Solar Telescope of the Big Bear Solar Observatory. It simultaneously records spectra of Hα and Ca ii 8542 Å lines, and this dual-spectra measurement provides an estimate of the temperature and nonthermal speed components. We observed a loop structure in AR 11305 using the FISS, SDO/AIA, and STEREO/EUVI in 304 Å, and found plasma material falling along the loop from a coronal height into the umbra of a sunspot, which accelerated up to 80 km?s^?1. We also observed C2 and C7 flare events near the loop. The temperature of the downflows was in the range of 10?000?–?33?000 K, increasing toward the umbra. The temperature of the flow varied with time, and the temperature near the footpoint rose immediately after the C7 flare, but the temperature toward the umbra remained the same. There seemed to be a temporal correlation between the amount of downflow material and the observed C-class flares. The downflows decreased gradually soon after the flares and then increased after a few hours. These high-speed red-shift events occurred continuously during the observations. The flows observed on-disk in Hα and Ca ii 8542 Å appeared as fragmented, fuzzy condensed material falling from the coronal heights when seen off-limb with STEREO/EUVI at 304 Å. Based on these observations, we propose that these flows were an on-disk signature of coronal rain.     

Revisiting Solar and Heliospheric 1.3-Year Signals during 1970 – 2007

We revisit the 1.3-year (yr) signals observed on the Sun, in the interplanetary space, and in the Earth’s magnetosphere to study the coupling among signals from the three regions for about 40 years (1970?–?2007) covering the three solar cycles 21, 22, and 23. For this, we make dynamic spectra of datasets including three different regions. From this, we estimate the peak frequency around 1.3 yr for each region and the corresponding band power. We found that coherent power only appears during 1987?–?1995 and the coherent behavior is found only in the interplanetary space and Earth, not in the Sun. Although the solar surface magnetic field shows significant power around 1.3 yr, their peak frequencies are statistically different from those of the outer regions, which make us dismiss the existence of coherence among the three regions. But it is notable that the peaks in band power corresponding to the 1.3-yr period are clearly simultaneous in the interplanetary space and Earth.     

APEX-SZ a Sunyaev–Zel’dovich galaxy cluster survey

The APEX-SZ experiment is a sky survey designed to discover galaxy clusters via the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect at millimeter wavelengths. We describe the components of the instrument, including the 12 m Atacama Pathfinder Experiment telescope, optics, Transition-edge sensor bolometer array and SQUID readout. APEX-SZ will begin observations in 2004.     

Ternary forecast of heavy snowfall in the Honam area,Korea

The objective of this study is to improve the statistical modeling for the ternary forecast of heavy snowfall in the Honam area in Korea. The ternary forecast of heavy snowfall consists of one of three values, 0 for less than 50 mm, 1 for an advisory (50–150 mm), and 2 for a warning (more than 150 mm). For our study, the observed daily snow amounts and the numerical model outputs for 45 synoptic factors at 17 stations in the Honam area during 5 years (2001 to 2005) are used as observations and potential pre...     

Super earth explorer: a coronagraphic off-axis space telescope

The Super-Earth Explorer is an Off-Axis Space Telescope (SEE-COAST) designed for high contrast imaging. Its scientific objective is to make the physico-chemical characterization of exoplanets possibly down to 2 Earth radii. For that purpose it will analyze the spectral and polarimetric properties of the parent starlight reflected by the planets, in the wavelength range 400–1,250 nm.     

The thermal conductivity for granite with various water contents

The thermal conductivities of granite were measured under different conditions of porosity and water content to investigate the effects of the porosity and water content on the thermal conductivity. For the dry samples, the thermal conductivities range from 2.12 W/mK for the rocks with a high porosity to 3.12 W/mK for the ones with a low porosity. Water-sorbed samples have greater thermal conductivities than dry samples of the same granite. The thermal conductivities range from 2.99 W/mK for granites with a high porosity to 3.62 W/mK for ones with a low porosity under saturated condition.     

Relative contributions of sulfate- and iron(III) reduction to organic matter mineralization and process controls in contrasting habitats of the Georgia saltmarsh

The objectives of this study were to partition out the predominant anaerobic respiration pathways coupled to C oxidation and to further elucidate the controls of anaerobic C respiration in three major saltmarsh habitats at Skidaway Island, GA; the short form of Spartina alterniflora (SS), the tall form of S. alterniflora (TS), and unvegetated, bioturbated creekbank (CB). Geochemical analysis of pore water and solid phase constituents revealed that the SS site experienced highly reducing conditions with two orders of magnitude higher pore water sulfide inventories (1.884 mmol m⁻²) than TS (0.003 mmol m⁻²) and CB (0.005 mmol m⁻²), respectively. Conversely, reactive Fe(III) inventories at TS (2208 mmol m⁻²) and CB (2881 mmol m⁻²) were up to 7–9 times higher than at SS (338 mmol m⁻²). Incubations and intact core experiments indicated that reduction accounted for 95% (SS), 37% (TS) and 66% (CB) of total anaerobic respiration. There was no detectable Fe(III) reduction at SS, while Fe(III) reduction accounted for up to 70% of C oxidation in the 3–6 cm depth interval at TS and 0–3 cm depth of CB, and on average, approximately 55% of C oxidation over two-thirds of marsh surface area. Laboratory manipulations provided further evidence for the importance of Fe(III) reduction as the accumulation rates of fermentation products were high when Fe(III) reduction was inhibited by removing the Fe(III) minerals from highly bioturbated CB sediments with higher Fe(III) mineral contents. Anaerobic C oxidation, - and Fe(III)-reduction rates appeared to be highest at the TS site during active plant growth in summer. Overall results suggest that bioturbation by macrofauna is the overriding factor in modulating the pathway of C mineralization in the saltmarsh, whereas availability of organic substrates from plants is a key factor in controlling the C oxidation rate.     

川—20地下水综合观测井井下仪器探头相互干扰的现场实验研究

给出了川- 20 地下水综合观测井井下仪器探头可能存在机械部分相互干扰的现场研究结果。所得结果对于正确区分各种手段今后的异常与干扰具有参考意义。