Effects of Location Errors in Pattern Informatics

The effect of location errors in the performance of seismicity-based forecasting methods was studied here using one particular binary forecast technique, the Pattern Informatics (PI) technique (Rundle et al., Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 99, 2514–2521, 2002; Tiampo et al., Pure Appl Geophys 159, 2429–2467, 2002). The Southern Californian dataset was used to generate a series of perturbed catalogs by adding different levels of noise to epicenter locations. The PI technique was applied to these perturbed datasets to perform retrospective forecasts that were evaluated by means of skill scores, commonly used in atmospheric sciences. These results were then compared to the effectiveness obtained from the original dataset. Isolated instances of decline of the PI performance were observed due to the nature of the skill scores themselves, but no clear trend of degradation was identified. Dependence on the total number of events in a catalog also was studied, with no systematic degradation in the performance of the PI for catalogs with events in the cases studied. These results suggest that the stability of the PI method is due to the invariance of the clustering patterns identified by the TM metric (Thirumalai and Mountain, Phys Rev A 39, 3563–3573, 1989) when applied to seismicity.     

Characteristics of adjoint sensitivity to potential vorticity

Structures of adjoint sensitivities to potential vorticity for specific initial and final norm are investigated for a short-range cyclone forecast in a three-dimensional quasigeostrophic (QG) model. Moreover, adjoint sensitivities to potential vorticity are compared with nonlinear sensitivities calculated for the same cyclogenesis case in the QG model. The adjoint sensitivities using different initial and final norms (e.g., total QG disturbance energy and potential enstrophy) show approximately similar characteristics for the horizontal and vertical structures and evolutions. Consistent with previous studies, the horizontal structure of the adjoint sensitivity is smaller for the energy norm than for the potential enstrophy norm. The dynamical mechanism of cyclone development by adjoint sensitivity coincides with that of nonlinear sensitivity, with slight differences in the region of sensitivity maxima over the upstream (nascent) low for the adjoint (nonlinear) sensitivity. The adjoint sensitivities show different vertical distributions from the nonlinear sensitivities. Consistent with the sensitive regions denoted by singular vectors and error evolution in the QG model, maxima of the adjoint sensitivities are located at both the upper and lower boundaries, with prominent secondary peaks in the lower to mid-troposphere of the domain. The level of the secondary maxima changes depending on the initial and final norm used. The secondary peak is located in the lower to mid- (mid-) troposphere for the total QG disturbance energy (potential enstrophy) as the initial and final norm. Based on the correspondence in the level of the sensitivity maxima in the interior of the domain between the adjoint and nonlinear sensitivities, adjoint sensitivities may serve as an alternative to nonlinear sensitivities given the enormous computing expenses in nonlinear sensitivity calculation.     

Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production

Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption) loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using simulation methods.     

Modeling and control of a 75 kW class variable liquid-column oscillator for highly efficient wave energy converter

The modeling and control of a variable liquid-column oscillator having a liquid filled U-tube with air chambers at its vertical columns are presented. As an ocean wave energy extracting device, the structure of the variable liquid-column oscillator (VLCO) is analogous to that of the tuned liquid-column damper used to suppress oscillatory motion in large structures like tall buildings and cargo ships. However, owing to an air spring effect caused by the dynamic pressure of air chambers, the amplitude of response of the VLCO becomes significantly amplified for a desired wave period. The governing equations for the motion of VLCO structure under wave excitation and the motion of liquid with an air spring effect caused by an air–liquid interaction are described by a series of nonlinear differential equations. A set of control parameters for extracting maximum power from various wave conditions is determined for the efficient operation of the VLCO. It is found that the effect of the air spring has an important role to play in making the oscillation of the VLCO match with the ocean wave. In this way, the VLCO provides the most effective mode for extracting energy from the ocean wave.     

Field applicability of self-recovering sustainable liner as landfill final cover

Preventing the penetration of rainwater into a landfill site is the main purpose of the final cover in landfill sites. Conventional designs of landfill covers use geotextiles, such as geomembrane and geosynthetic clay liners, and clay liners to lower the permeability of the final cover of landfill sites. However, differential settlement and climatic effects in landfill sites instigate crack development or structural damage inside the final cover. This study therefore investigates the field applicability of a self-recovering sustainable liner (SRSL) as an alternative to the landfill final cover. The SRSL utilizes the precipitation reaction of two chemical materials to form precipitates that fill the pores and thereby lower the overall permeability of the liner. To examine the field applicability of the SRSL system, uniaxial compression tests and laboratory hydraulic conductivity tests were performed under various climatic effects such as wet/dry and freeze/thaw processes. Furthermore, field-scale hydraulic conductivity tests were performed with intentionally induced cracks to demonstrate the self-recovery performance for practical applications. Extensive laboratory and field test results confirmed the capability of the SRSL final cover system to fulfill the strength and hydraulic conductivity requirements, even in harsh field conditions.     

Removing derelict fishing gear from the deep seabed of the East Sea

The East Sea, with an average depth of 1700 m, has long been subject to heavy fishing pressure, resulting in derelict fishing gear. Most derelict fishing gears, such as fishing nets, fishing ropes, and crab pots, sink to the seabed and do not degrade. This gear results in “ghost fishing,” which has adverse impacts on deep benthic habitats. Recently, the Korean government has started to remove derelict fishing gears from the deep seabed of the East Sea by bottom trawling with heavy hooks (50–80 kg) and ropes. A total of 207.8 and 252.2 tons of marine debris in 2009 and 2010, respectively, were removed from the seabed, most of which were derelict fishing gears. Contrary to monitoring surveys and clean-up in shallow waters, removal of marine debris from remote deep habitats is much more difficult and dangerous for removal crews.     

Environmentally associated spatial changes of a macrozoobenthic community in the Saemangeum tidal flat,Korea

Estuarine tidal flats are both ecologically and economically important, hence developing methods to reliably measure ecosystem health is essential. Because benthic fauna play a central role in the food web of tidal flats, in this study we set out to quantitatively describe the intertidal zonation of macro-invertebrates and their associations with specific environmental parameters along three transects in the Saemangeum tidal flat, Korea. The abundance and biomass of intertidal fauna with respect to five environmental parameters (i.e., shore level, mud content, coarse sand content, water content, and organic content) were measured, to identify environmental factors that influence macrofaunal distribution in intertidal soft bottom habitats. A total of 75 species were identified, with dominant species showing distinct zones of distribution along all transects. The number of species recorded in each transect was found to be dependent on sediment characteristics and salinity. Cluster analysis classified the entire study area into three faunal assemblages (i.e., location groups), which were delineated by characteristic species, including (A) ‘Periserrula–Macrophthalmus’, (B) ‘Umbonium–Meretrix’, and (C) ‘Prionospio–Potamocorbula’. Four environmental variables (i.e., shore level, water content, mud content, and organic content) appeared to determine factors that distinguished the three faunal assemblages, based on the discriminant analysis. The faunal assemblage types of the sampled locations were accurately predicted from environmental variables in two discriminant functions, with a prediction accuracy of 98%. It should be noted that the zonation of benthos in the lower section (C) of Sandong had been affected by the construction of a nearby dike, while this parameter had remained essentially unchanged at the other two location groups (A–B). Overall, the zonation of benthos from the Saemangeum tidal flat was explained adequately by the measured environmental variables, implying that faunal assemblages are closely associated with certain combinations of abiotic factors. The identification of such reliable associations may facilitate the development of statistical models to predict faunal distributions based on environmental variables at both local and regional scales. The entire study area was embanked in 2006 (one year after this study), and an integrated plan was set into force to develop claimed land into industrial, residential and agricultural districts, which also included a partial restoration program of the tidal flats located near to the study area.     

Immobilization of As and Pb in contaminated sediments using waste resources

As and Pb-contaminated sediment obtained from the Nakdong Lake and Yeongsan River in the Republic of Korea was stabilized using a combination of calcined oyster shell (COS), waste cow bone (WCB) and coal mine drainage sludge (CMDS). The effectiveness of the stabilization treatment was evaluated using the Korean Standard Test (KST). The KST tests were performed using 1 N HCl extraction fluid for As and 0.1 N HCl extraction fluid for Pb. Scanning electron microscopy–energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM–EDX) analyses were performed to investigate the mechanism responsible for As and Pb immobilization upon treatment. The treatment results showed that effective stabilization of As and Pb-contaminated sediment was obtained. Specifically, 10 wt% COS–5 wt% CMDS was the best treatment for As immobilization and 5 wt% COS–5 wt% WCB was the best treatment for Pb immobilization. The COS–WCB treatment outperformed the COS–CMDS treatment in immobilizing Pb in the contaminated sediment. SEM–EDX results indicated that Pb immobilization was strongly associated with Ca, Si, Al and P while As immobilization was strongly associated with Fe and O. Therefore, utilization of COS, WCB and CMDS is beneficial for the stabilization of contaminated sediment.     

Predicting natural arsenic contamination of bedrock groundwater for a local region in Korea and its application

A logistic regression model for the probability of arsenic exceeding the drinking water guidelines (10 μg/L) in bedrock groundwater was developed for a selected county in Korea, where arsenic occurrence and release reactions have been investigated. Arsenic was enriched naturally by the oxidation of sulfide minerals in metasedimentary rocks and mineralized zones, and due to high mobility in alkaline pH conditions, concentrations were high in groundwater of the county. When considering these reactions of arsenic release and water quality characteristics, several geological and geochemical factors were selected as influencing variables in the model. In the final logistic regression model, geological units of limestone and metasedimentary rocks, the concentrations of nitrate and sulfate, and distances to closed mines and adjacent granite were retained as statistically significant variables. Predicted areas of high probability agreed well with known spatial contamination patterns in the county. The model was also applied to an adjacent county, where the groundwater has not previously been tested for the presence of arsenic, and a probability map for arsenic contamination was then produced. Through the analysis of arsenic concentrations at the wells of high probability, it was determined that the applied model accurately indicated the arsenic contamination of groundwater. The logistic regression approach of this study can be applied to predict arsenic contamination in areas of similar geological and geochemical conditions to the county used in this model.     

Simultaneous stabilization of arsenic, lead, and copper in contaminated soil using mixed waste resources

In the present study, stabilization treatment using waste resource stabilizers was performed for soil contaminated with As and heavy metals (Pb and Cu). Calcined oyster shell (COS) and coal mine drainage sludge (CMDS) were used as a mixed stabilizing agent for a wet-curing duration of 28 days. After the stabilization treatment, the treatment process efficiency was evaluated by the results of various batch- and column-leaching tests. Neutral and weak acid extraction methods, such as water-soluble extraction and SPLP, did not exhibit satisfactory results for heavy metal stabilization, even if they showed very low leachability. On the other hand, TCLP and 0.1 M HCl extraction showed that the stabilizers significantly reduced the amount of heavy metals leached from the soil, which strongly supports the thesis that the stabilization treatment is efficient in the acidic leaching conditions that were explored. Specifically, in the 0.1 M HCl extraction, the reduction efficiencies of As, Pb, and Cu leachings were more than 90 %, compared with control experiments. This study demonstrates that the application of waste resources for the stabilization of As and heavy metals is feasible. However, some limitations observed in the experiments should be considered in future studies, such as the mobilization of alkali-soluble elements, and in particular, exchangeable fractions of Cu. In addition, the treatment efficiency can be evaluated by different leaching methods, which suggests that multidirectional approaches are required for the proper evaluation of stabilization treatment.