Heterogeneous water storage and thermal regime of supraglacial ponds on debris‐covered glaciers

The water storage and energy transfer roles of supraglacial ponds are poorly constrained, yet they are thought to be important components of debris‐covered glacier ablation budgets. We used an unmanned surface vessel (USV) to collect sonar depth measurements for 24 ponds to derive the first empirical relationship between their area and volume applicable to the size distribution of ponds commonly encountered on debris‐covered glaciers. Additionally, we instrumented nine ponds with thermistors and three with pressure transducers, characterizing their thermal regime and capturing three pond drainage events. The deepest and most irregularly‐shaped ponds were those associated with ice cliffs, which were connected to the surface or englacial hydrology network (maximum depth = 45.6 m), whereas hydrologically‐isolated ponds without ice cliffs were both more circular and shallower (maximum depth = 9.9 m). The englacial drainage of three ponds had the potential to melt ~100 ± 20 × 10³ kg to ~470 ± 90 × 10³ kg of glacier ice owing to the large volumes of stored water. Our observations of seasonal pond growth and drainage with their associated calculations of stored thermal energy have implications for glacier ice flow, the progressive enlargement and sudden collapse of englacial conduits, and the location of glacier ablation hot‐spots where ponds and ice cliffs interact. Additionally, the evolutionary trajectory of these ponds controls large proglacial lake formation in deglaciating environments. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variability of the useful life of reservoirs in tropical locations: A case study from the Burdekin Falls Dam,Australia

Large dam construction for irrigation, hydropower, water supply, and flood control in tropical to sub-tropical areas increased markedly after 1950. Many of the dams built during this period have filled with sediment and no longer perform to their original design specifications; in many cases, forecast dam life was greatly overestimated. This study investigates the useful life of Burdekin Falls Dam (BFD), northeastern Australia and compares the findings with other tropical reservoirs. Using two independent methods it is estimated that between 61 and 65 million m³ of sediment has been deposited in the reservoir over the 24 years of operation through 2011. This sediment volume equates to an average of 0.15% of capacity lost per year since construction was completed. If current sediment loads/climate regimes persist, reservoir capacity will be reduced by 50% after 345 years. However, the useful life of the BFD reduces to just 276 years when drawdown data are considered; these data show reservoir use would be affected once 40% of storage was filled with sediment, with a 60% drawdown return period of 1 in 15 years. When compared to similar large tropical to sub-tropical reservoirs, the BFD has a slightly longer reservoir useful life than dams in India and a much longer half-life than for both similar-sized and larger dams in China, Brazil, and Iran. Properties of the BFD that promote a longer useful life include a lower trap efficiency, relatively low annual sediment load delivered to the reservoir, limited sediment deposition behind the dam wall (and uniform distribution of deposited sediment), and the export of highly turbid annual floodwaters before settling and deposition of any remaining sediment within the reservoir.     

An individual-level network model for a hypothetical outbreak of Japanese encephalitis in the USA

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in birds and pigs. To examine the possible epidemiology of JE in the United States, we use an individual-level network model that explicitly considers the feral pig population and implicitly considers mosquitoes and birds in specific areas of Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina. To model the virus transmission among feral pigs within a small geographic area (<60 sq mi areas), two network topologies are considered: Fully connected and Erdos–Renyi networks. Long-distance connections (interstate) are created with limited probability and based on fall and spring bird migration patterns. Patterns of simulated outbreaks support the use of the Erdos–Renyi network because maximum incidence occurs during the fall migration period which is similar to the peak incidence of the closely related West Nile virus, another virus in the Japanese encephalitis group (Flaviviridae) that is transmitted by both birds and mosquitoes. Simulation analysis suggested two important mitigation strategies: for low mosquito vectorial capacity, insecticidal spraying of infected areas reduces transmission and limits the outbreak to a single geographic area. Alternatively, in high mosquito vectorial capacity areas, birds rather than mosquitoes need to be removed/controlled.     

Assessing the footprint and volume of oil deposited in deep-sea sediments following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

The lateral and vertical extents of Macondo oil in deep-sea sediments resulting from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill were determined using chemical forensics and geostatistical kriging of data from 2397 sediment samples from 875 cores collected in 2010/2011 and 2014. The total mass of Macondo-derived hopane on the seafloor in 2010/2011 was conservatively estimated between 2.00 and 2.26 metric tons, derived from 219,000 to 247,000 barrels of oil; or 6.9 to 7.7% of the 3.19 million barrels spilled. Macondo-derived hopane was deposited over 1030 to 1910 km² of the seafloor, mostly (> 97%) in surface (0–1 cm) and near-surface (1–3 cm) sediments, which is consistent with short-term oil deposition. Although Macondo oil was still present in surface sediments in 2014, the total mass of Macondo-derived hopane was significantly lower (~ 80 to 90%) than in 2010/2011, affirming an acute impact from the spill and not long-term deposition from natural seeps.     

Uncertainty in quantitative analyses of topographic change: error propagation and the role of thresholding

Topographic surveys inevitably contain error, introducing uncertainty into estimates of volumetric or mean change based on the differencing of repeated surveys. In the geomorphic community, uncertainty has often been framed as a problem of separating out real change from apparent change due purely to error, and addressed by removing measured change considered indistinguishable from random noise from analyses (thresholding). Thresholding is important when quantifying gross changes (i.e. total erosion or total deposition), which are systematically biased by random errors in stable parts of a landscape. However, net change estimates are not substantially influenced by those same random errors, and the use of thresholds results in inherently biased, and potentially misleading, estimates of net change and uncertainty. More generally, thresholding is unrelated to the important process of propagating uncertainty in order to place uncertainty bounds around final estimates. Error propagation methods for uncorrelated, correlated, and systematic errors are presented. Those equations demonstrate that uncertainties in modern net change analyses, as well as in gross change analyses using reasonable thresholds, are likely to be dominated by low-magnitude but highly correlated or systematic errors, even after careful attempts to reduce those errors. In contrast, random errors with little to no correlation largely cancel to negligible levels when averaged or summed. Propagated uncertainty is then typically insensitive to the precision of individual measurements, and is instead defined by the relative mean error (accuracy) over the area of interest. Given that real-world mean elevation changes in many landscape settings are often similar in magnitude to potential mean errors in repeat topographic analyses, reducing highly correlated or systematic errors will be central to obtaining accurate change estimates, while placing uncertainty bounds around those results provides essential context for their interpretation. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Assessing potential environmental influences on killer whale (Orcinus orca) distribution patterns in the Bremer Canyon,south-west Australia

ABSTRACT

Submarine canyons play an important role in the regional distribution, abundance and dispersal of marine biota and are increasingly being recognised as geomorphic features of high conservation significance along Australia’s continental margin. Certain canyons have been described as foraging ‘hotspots’ attributable to the high abundance of apex cetacean species aggregating in these areas. Anecdotal evidence of large seasonal aggregations of killer whales in the Bremer Canyon, south-west Australia, has attracted significant research attention in the last decade. To identify important environmental drivers influencing aggregation patterns, a predictive spatial habitat model using the Maxent model was developed based on presence-only whale sighting data. In addition, remotely sensed sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a concentrations were assessed to investigate the spatio-temporal variation in sea surface conditions. Habitat preference was predicted in areas between canyon heads, with the most influential predictor variables being depth and distance from the continental shelf break. Analysis of remote-sensing data highlighted low localised variability in surface waters and illustrated the seasonal trends of the Leeuwin Current. This study demonstrates the influence of bathymetry and submarine geomorphology on enhanced cetacean abundance and highlights the need for recognition of this potential foraging area in marine reserve planning.     

Residential adjustment and gentrification in Los Angeles, 2000–2015: theoretical arguments and empirical evidence

Knowledge-intensive economic resurgence and social restratification are evidently reshaping the intra-urban space of Los Angeles .In particular, the expansion of white-collar employment is inducing marked readjustments in the geography of housing for these workers, and is promoting significant gentrification of inner-city neighborhoods. Existing accounts of gentrification in the United States are briefly adjudged in relation to (a) the recent historical record of urban change and (b) the theory of land redevelopment. A cartographic and statistical analysis of white-collar residential change in Los Angeles County is then undertaken. The analysis points to the evolving spatial structure of pertinent job opportunities together with related land redevelopment dynamics as the dominant factors underlying recent shifts in white-collar residential activity in the County. Further investigation suggests that gentrification trends in Los Angeles represent a special and problematical case of this broad process of white-collar residential change. .     

Anthropogenic increases of catchment nitrogen and phosphorus loads in New Zealand

Spatial regression models were used to predict yields (kg?ha^?1?yr^?1) of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) discharged from catchments throughout New Zealand under natural and current conditions. The models were derived using loads (kg?yr^?1) of TN, NO₃-N, TP and DRP calculated for 592 river water quality monitoring sites. Anthropogenic increases in yields above natural levels were associated with the proportions of catchments occupied by the intensive agricultural land cover and were unevenly distributed across regions. Anthropogenic increases in national loads of TN, NO₃-N, TP and DRP exported to the ocean were 74%, 159%, 48% and 18%, respectively. Increases in loads exported to the ocean varied considerably at smaller scales, with catchments having significant load increases between 4- and 26-fold for N and 6- to 9-fold for P. Predictions of yields and loads reported here have utility in the development of strategies to manage nutrients.     

Compositional variability on the surface of 1 Ceres revealed through GRaND measurements of high‐energy gamma rays

High‐energy gamma rays (HEGRs) from Ceres’s surface were measured using Dawn's Gamma Ray and Neutron Detector (GRaND). Models of cosmic‐ray‐initiated gamma ray production predict that the HEGR flux will inversely vary with single‐layer hydrogen concentrations for Ceres‐like compositions. The measured data confirm this prediction. The hydrogen‐induced variations in HEGR rates were decoupled from the measurements by detrending the HEGR data with Ceres single‐layer hydrogen concentrations determined by GRaND neutron measurements. Models indicate that hydrogen‐detrended HEGR counting rates correlate with water‐free average atomic mass, which is denoted as <A>*. HEGR variations across Ceres’s surface are consistent with <A>* variations of ±0.5 atomic mass units. Chemical variations in the CM and CI chondrites, our closest analogs to Ceres’s surface, suggest that <A>* variations on Ceres are primarily driven by variations in the concentration of Fe, although other elements such as Mg and S could contribute. Dawn observations have shown that Ceres’s interior structure and surface composition have been modified by some combination of physical (i.e., ice‐rock fractionation) and/or chemical (i.e., alteration) processes that has led to variations in bulk surface chemistry. Locations of the highest inferred <A>* values, and thus possibly the highest Fe and least altered materials, tend to be younger, less cratered surfaces that are broadly associated with the impact ejecta of Ceres’s largest craters.