Suitable gravity interpolation technique for large data gaps in Africa

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica - The gravity database for the IAG African Geoid Project contains significantly large data gaps. These large data gaps affect the interpolation precision of the...     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Solar Microwave Bursts from Electron Populations with a 'Broken’ Energy Spectrum

Usually the gyrosynchrotron emission of microwave bursts from electron populations with a power-law (PL) energy distribution has been considered under the assumption that the spectral index of the distribution is constant over a wide range of energies. Meanwhile, there is strong evidence, in particular from hard X-ray and -ray, but also from cm/mm wavelength radio observations, that in many solar flare events the spectrum of the emitting electrons is characterized by a significant hardening at energies above 100–500 keV. We present some examples of calculated microwave burst spectra at cm/mm wavelengths taking into account the above evidence. It is shown that a break in the energy spectrum of the PL electrons can indeed result in a spectral hardening sometimes observed in microwave bursts at frequencies above 10–30 GHz.     

Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.     

Source parameters for the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> = 6.6, 03 February 2002, Çay Earthquake (Turkey) and aftershocks from GPS,Southwestern Turkey

The 03 February 2002 Çay Earthquake (M_w ～6.7) occurred on the fault segment between Eber and Ak?ehir Lakes followed by a large aftershock (M_w ～5.6) near the western end of the fault and two sequential aftershocks. We computed the coseismic surface displacements from static GPS measurements to determine the fault geometry parameters and uniform slip components. The coseismic displacements were obtained through combining the regional pre-earthquake and post-earthquake GPS data. Fault geometry and slips were acquired through the inversion of GPS data modeling the events as elastic dislocations in a half-space and assuming all four events took place on the same fault plane. Results suggest that one-segment fault of ～33 km length and dipping ～43° northward suffices to model the dislocation, assuming uniform slip distribution with 0.51 m dip slip, 0.26 m left-lateral slip extending to a depth down to ～11.5 km which is consistent with seismological evidence. The results also verify the normal faulting in the eastern flank of Isparta Angle which has long been assumed as a thrusting structure. While the available data cannot identify the four individual events on the same day, an attempted distributed slip model differentiates dip slip and left-lateral slips near the hypocenter with maximum values of ～1 and 0.6 m, respectively.     

Sea level variability at Antalya and Mente? tide gauges in Turkey: atmospheric, steric and land motion contributions

Sea level trends and interannual variability at Antalya and Menteş tide gauges are investigated during the 1985–2001 period, quantifying the roles of atmospheric, steric and local land motion contributions. Tide gauge sea level measurements, temperature/salinity climatologies and GPS data are used in the analyses and the results are compared with the output of a barotropic model forced by atmospheric pressure and wind. The overall sea level trends at two tide gauges collocated with GPS are in the range of 5.5 to 7.9 mm/yr during the study period, but showing different behaviour in the sub-periods 1985–1993 and 1993–2001 due to variations in the contributing factors both in space and time. After the removal of the atmospheric forcing and steric contribution from sea level records, the resulting trends vary between 1.9 to 4.5 mm/yr in Antalya and −1.2 to −11.6 mm/yr in Menteş depending on the period considered. Vertical land movement estimated from GPS data seems to explain the high positive residual trend in Antalya during the whole period. On the other hand, the source of the highly negative sea level trend of about −14 mm/yr in Menteş during 1985–1993 could not be resolved with the available datasets. Interannual variability of wind and atmospheric pressure appear to dominate the sea level at both tide gauges during the study period. Atmospheric and steric contributions together account for ∼50% of the total sea level variance at interannual time scales. Mass induced sea level variations which were not considered in this study may help to close the sea level trend budgets as well as to better explain the interannual sea level variance.     

Controls on sediment evacuation from glacially modified and unmodified catchments in the eastern Sierra Nevada,California

The degree of glacial modification in small catchments along the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, controls the timing and pattern of sediment flux to the adjacent fans. There is a close relationship between the depth of fan‐head incision and the pattern and degree of Late Pleistocene catchment erosion by valley glaciers; catchments with significant glacial activity are associated with deeply incised fan heads, whereas fans emerging from glacially unmodified catchments are unincised. We suggest that the depth of fan‐head incision is controlled by the potential for sediment storage during relatively dry ice‐free periods, which in turn is related to the downstream length of the glacially modified valley and creation of accommodation through valley floor slope lowering and glacial valley overdeepening and widening. Significant storage in glacially modified basins during ice‐free periods leads to sediment supply‐limited conditions at the fan head and causes deep incision. In contrast, a lack of sediment trapping allows quasi‐continuous sediment supply to the fan and prevents incision of the fan head. Sediment evacuation rates should thus show large variations in glacially modified basins, with major peaks during glacial and lows during interglacial or ice‐free periods, respectively. In contrast, sediment removal from glacially unmodified catchments in this type of setting should be free of this effect, and will be dominated instead by short‐term variations, modulated for example by changes in vegetation cover or storm frequency. This distinction may help improve our understanding of long‐term sediment yields as a measure of erosional efficiency. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Age and intensity of thermal events by fission track analysis: The Ries impact crater

A thermal event reduces the number of previously registered fission tracks in a mineral dependent upon the track retention properties of the individual mineral. Apatite, sphene and zircon have retention properties over a wide range of temperatures (from 100° to 550°C); apatite data reveal information at lowest temperatures while sphene and zircon data are useful for higher temperatures.Thermal events within this temperature range of 100°C to about 550°C are suitable for study with this technique. The age of the event is determined from samples in which the fission tracks are completely erased, while minerals containing partially removed (erased) tracks provide information on the temperatures occurring during the thermal event.As a test case, the analysis of the temperatures developed by the meteorite impact which produced the Ries crater at 14.7 m.y. ago is presented.     

柴北缘鱼卡地区中侏罗统石门沟组含煤层段沉积有机相分析

柴达木盆地北缘鱼卡地区中侏罗统石门沟组含煤段中发育有油页岩、煤、碳质泥岩和泥岩等富有机质细粒沉积.为了研究其沉积有机相的类型及煤和油页岩形成的控制因素,本文通过岩心观察、工业分析结合有机地球化学测试分析等方法将含煤段细粒沉积物划分为了类型A(三角洲平原沉积环境)、B(三角洲前缘-浅湖沉积环境)、C1(湖沼非油页岩亚相)及C2(湖沼油页岩亚相)四种类型,其中类型C1沉积物中发育煤,类型C2中发育油页岩,且煤较油页岩具有更高的含油率、水分、挥发分以及发热量值.有机质类型特征方面,沉积有机相类型A、B及C1沉积物有机质类型均为Ⅱ2-Ⅲ型、有机质来源均以陆源和混合来源两种有机质来源为主,而类型C2中主要为Ⅱ2型,以混合有机质来源为主;类型A及C2其沉积物有机质均处于未成熟阶段,而类型B和C1中有机质均处于未成熟-低成熟阶段;有机质保存条件方面,类型A沉积物主要形成于缺氧的淡水环境,类型B主要形成于贫氧-缺氧的淡水-半咸水环境,类型C1形成于贫氧-缺氧的淡水-半咸水环境,而类型C2则主要形成于缺氧的淡水-半咸水环境.其中类型B较类型A,类型C2较类型C1,其沉积物均形成于更为还原且盐度更高的水体环境中.石门沟组含煤段是煤和油页岩的形成层位,稳定的沉积环境、丰富的湖泊有机质来源、良好的保存条件及较少的陆源碎屑的稀释共同促进了类型C2中油页岩的形成,而丰富的陆源植物供给及良好的保存条件则促进了类型C1中煤层的形成.