Natural hazards,disaster management and simulation: a bibliometric analysis of keyword searches

Natural Hazards - Disasters affect millions of people annually, causing large numbers of fatalities, detrimental economic impact and the displacement of communities. Policy-makers, researchers and...     

A long-term nearshore wave hindcast for Ireland: Atlantic and Irish Sea coasts (1979–2012)

The Northeast Atlantic possesses some of the highest wave energy levels in the world. The recent years have witnessed a renewed interest in harnessing this vast energy potential. Due to the complicated geomorphology of the Irish coast, there can be a significant variation in both the wave and wind climate. Long-term hindcasts with high spatial resolution, properly calibrated against available measurements, provide vital information for future deployments of ocean renewable energy installations. These can aid in the selection of adequate locations for potential deployment and for the planning and design of those marine operations. A 34-year (from 1979 to 2012), high-resolution wave hindcast was performed for Ireland including both the Atlantic and Irish Sea coasts, with a particular focus on the wave energy resource. The wave climate was estimated using the third-generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III®; version 4.11, the unstructured grid formulation. The wave model was forced with directional wave spectral data and 10-m winds from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis, which is available from 1979 to the present. The model was validated against available observed satellite altimeter and buoy data, particularly in the nearshore, and was found to be excellent. A strong spatial and seasonal variability was found for both significant wave heights, and the wave energy flux, particularly on the north and west coasts. A strong correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection pattern and wave heights, wave periods, and peak direction in winter and also, to a lesser extent, in spring was identified.     

Vesiculation of high fountaining Hawaiian eruptions: episodes 15 and 16 of 1959 Kīlauea Iki

The 1959 summit eruption of Kīlauea volcano produced the highest recorded Hawaiian fountain in Hawai‘i. Quantitative analysis of closely spaced samples from the final two high-fountaining episodes of the eruption result in a fine-scale textural study of pyroclasts and provide a record of postfragmentation processes. As clast vesicularity increases, the vesicle number density decreases and vesicle morphology shifts from small and round to larger and more irregular. The shift in microtexture corresponds to greater degrees of postfragmentation expansion of clasts with higher vesicularity. We suggest the range of clast morphologies in the deposit is related to thermal zonation within a Hawaiian fountain where the highest vesicularity clasts traveled in the center and lowest traveled along the margins. Vesicle number densities are greatest in the highest fountaining episode and therefore scale with intensity of activity. Major element chemical analyses and fasciculate crystal textures indicate microlite-rich zones within individual clasts are portions of recycled lava lake material that were incorporated into newly vesiculating primary melt.     

New metrics for managing and sustaining the ocean's bounty

Policies are arising around the world, most recently in the United States, that mandate the implementation of marine spatial planning as a practical pathway towards ecosystem-based management. In the new United States ocean policy, and several other cases around the globe, ecosystem services are at the core of marine spatial planning, but there is little guidance on how ecosystem services should be measured, making it hard to implement this new approach. A new framework is shown here for practical, rigorous ecosystem service measurement that highlights contributions from both natural and social systems. The novel three-step framework addresses traditional shortcomings of an ecosystem services approach by giving managers and scientists the tools to assess and track: (1) the condition of the ecosystem (supply metrics), (2) the amount of ocean resources actually used or enjoyed by people (service metrics), and (3) people's preference for that level of service (value metrics). This framework will allow real world progress on marine spatial planning to happen quickly, and with a greater chance for success.     

The science of European marine reserves: Status,efficacy, and future needs

The ecologically and socio-economically important marine ecosystems of Europe are facing severe threats from a variety of human impacts. To mitigate and potentially reverse some of these impacts, the European Union (EU) has mandated the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) in order to achieve Good Environmental Status (GES) in EU waters by 2020. The primary initiative for achieving GES is the implementation of coherent networks of marine protected areas (MPAs). Marine reserves are an important type of MPA in which no extraction is allowed, but their usefulness depends upon a number of ecological, management, and political factors. This paper provides a synthesis of the ecological effects of existing European marine reserves and the factors (social and ecological) underlying their effectiveness. Results show that existing European marine reserves foster significant positive increases in key biological variables (density, biomass, body size, and species richness) compared with areas receiving less protection, a pattern mirrored by marine reserves around the globe. For marine reserves to achieve their ecological and social goals, however, they must be designed, managed, and enforced properly. In addition, identifying whether protected areas are ecologically connected as a network, as well as where new MPAs should be established according to the MSFD, requires information on the connectivity of populations across large areas. The adoption of the MSFD demonstrates willingness to achieve the long-term protection of Europe's marine ecosystems, but whether the political will (local, regional, and continent wide) is strong enough to see its mandates through remains to be seen. Although the MSFD does not explicitly require marine reserves, an important step towards the protection of Europe's marine ecosystems is the establishment of marine reserves within wider-use MPAs as connected networks across large spatial scales.     

The effect of spontaneous gas expansion and mobilization on the aqueous-phase concentrations above a dense non-aqueous phase liquid pool

The spontaneous expansion and mobilization of discontinuous gas above dense non-aqueous-phase liquid (DNAPL) pools can affect the aqueous-phase concentrations of the DNAPL constituents above the pool. The results of an intermediate-scale, two-dimensional flow cell experiment showed that the discontinuous gas flow produced by spontaneous expansion, driven by the partitioning of 1,1,1-TCA from the surface of a DNAPL pool, resulted in detectable aqueous-phase concentrations of 1,1,1-TCA well above the pool surface. In comparison to a conventional model for DNAPL pool dissolution in the absence of a discontinuous gas phase, these concentrations were greater than expected, and were present at greater than expected elevations. Additionally, this study showed that the discontinuous gas flow produced transient behavior in the aqueous-phase concentrations, where the elevated concentrations occurred as short-term, pulse-like events. These results suggest that the spontaneous expansion and mobilization of discontinuous gas in DNAPL source zones could lead to the misdiagnosis of source zone architecture using aqueous concentration data, and that the transient nature of the elevated concentrations could further complicate the difficult task of source zone characterization.     

Using GALEX-SDSS-PanSTARRS-HST-Gaia to understand post-AGB evolution

Hot WDs in binary systems with a less evolved star are particularly invaluable astrophysical probes, the unevolved companion enabling better derivation of distance and age than is usually possible for post-AGB objects, and therefore also of their radius and luminosity. But hot white dwarfs (WD) are elusive at all wavelengths except the UV (Bianchi et al. 2011a). From our GALEX UV source catalogs (Bianchi et al. 2011a,b, 2014, 2017) matched to SDSS, we identified thousands of candidate hot WDs including WDs in binary systems consisting of a hot WD and a companion of spectral type from A to M. The identification and preliminary characterization of the stellar parameters is based on the analysis of the photometric SED from far-UV to z-band.We have observed subsamples of the UV-selected WDs with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to better characterize their stellar parameters. We obtained (1) UV spectroscopy with STIS and analyzed the UV spectra together with optical SDSS spectra, and (2) multi-band imaging with WFC3 (\(0.04^{\prime\prime}/\mbox{pixel}\)) to measure angular separation and individual SEDs of the pair’s components in binary systems. In our HST/WFC3 sample of 59 hot-WD binaries with late-type companions, we found that at least a dozen have possibly evolved without exchanging mass. The UV STIS spectroscopy led to the revision of previous results based on optical spectra only, because of the often undetectable or unquantifiable contribution of the hot component to the optical fluxes.     

53Mn and 60Fe in iron meteorites—New data,model calculations

We measured specific activities of the long‐lived cosmogenic radionuclides ⁶⁰Fe in 28 iron meteorites and ⁵³Mn in 41 iron meteorites. Accelerator mass spectrometry was applied at the 14 MV Heavy Ion Accelerator Facility at ANU Canberra for all samples except for two which were measured at the Maier‐Leibnitz Laboratory, Munich. For the large iron meteorite Twannberg (IIG), we measured six samples for ⁵³Mn. This work doubles the number of existing individual ⁶⁰Fe data and quadruples the number of iron meteorites studied for ⁶⁰Fe. We also significantly extended the entire ⁵³Mn database for iron meteorites. The ⁵³Mn data for the iron meteorite Twannberg vary by more than a factor of 30, indicating a significant shielding dependency. In addition, we performed new model calculations for the production of ⁶⁰Fe and ⁵³Mn in iron meteorites. While the new model is based on the same particle spectra as the earlier model, we no longer use experimental cross sections but instead use cross sections that were calculated using the latest version of the nuclear model code INCL. The new model predictions differ substantially from results obtained with the previous model. Predictions for the ⁶⁰Fe activity concentrations are about a factor of 2 higher, for ⁵³Mn, they are ~30% lower, compared to the earlier model, which gives now a better agreement with the experimental data.     

Estimating uncertainties on net erosion from well-log porosity data

Estimating the amount of erosion experienced by a sedimentary basin during its geological history plays a key role in basin modelling. In this paper, we present a novel probabilistic approach to estimate net erosion from porosity–depth data from a single well. Our approach uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which readily allows us to deal with imprecise knowledge of the lithology-dependent compaction parameters in a joint inversion scheme using multiple lithologies. The results using synthetic data highlight the advantages of our approach over conventional techniques for net erosion estimation: (a) uncertainties on compaction parameters can be effectively mapped into a probabilistic solution for net erosion; (b) posterior uncertainties are easy to quantify; (c) the joint inversion scheme can automatically reconcile porosity data from different lithologies. Our results also underscore the critical role of prior assumptions on controlling the retrieved estimates for net erosion. Using real data from a well in the Barents Sea, we simulate three possible scenarios of variable prior assumptions on compaction parameters to demonstrate the general applicability of our approach. Strong prior assumptions on the compaction parameters led to unrealistic estimates of net erosion for the target well, indicating the assumptions are probably inappropriate. Our preferred strategy for this dataset is to include additional data to constrain the normal compaction trend of the sediments. This provides a net erosion estimate for the target well of about 2300 m with a standard deviation of 140 m which is in line with previous studies. Finally, we discuss potential guidelines to deal with real applications in which data from normally compacted sediments are not available. One is to use our algorithm as a hypothesis-testing tool to evaluate the results under a large set of assumed compaction parameters. A second is to infer compaction parameters and net erosion simultaneously from the target well porosity data. Although appealing and successful with synthetic data, this strategy provides results which are strongly dependent on the calibration data and the geological history of the sediments sampled by the target well.