Relative sea‐level changes,glacial isostatic modelling and ice‐sheet reconstructions from the British Isles since the Last Glacial Maximum

While contributing <1 m equivalent eustatic sea‐level rise the British Isles ice sheet produced glacio‐isostatic rebound in northern Britain of similar magnitude to eustatic sea‐level change, or global meltwater influx, over the last 18 000 years. The resulting spatially variable relative sea‐level changes combine with observations from far‐field locations to produce a rigorous test for quantitative models of glacial isostatic adjustment, local ice‐sheet history and global meltwater influx. After a review of the attributes of relative sea‐level observations significant for constraining large‐scale models of the isostatic adjustment process we summarise long records of relative sea‐level change from the British Isles and far‐field locations. We give an overview of different global theoretical models of the isostatic adjustment process before presenting intercomparisons of observed and predicted relative sea levels at sites in the British Isles and far‐field for a range of Earth and ice model parameters in order to demonstrate model sensitivity and the resolving power available from using evidence from the British Isles. For the first time we show a good degree of fit between relative sea‐level observations and predictions that are based upon global Earth and ice model parameters, independently derived from analysis of far‐field data, with a terrain‐corrected model of the British Isles ice sheet that includes extensive glaciation of the North Sea and western continental shelf, that does not assume isostatic equilibrium at the Last Glacial Maximum and keeps to trimline constraints of ice surface elevation. We do not attempt to identify a unique solution for the model lithosphere thickness parameter or the local‐scale detail of the ice model in order to provide a fit for all sites, but argue that the next stage should be to incorporate an ice‐sheet model that is based on quantitative, glaciological model simulations. We hope that this paper will stimulate this debate and help to integrate research in glacial geomorphology, glaciology, sea‐level change, Earth rheology and quantitative modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin,Oregon

Stream temperature is a complex function of energy inputs including solar radiation and latent and sensible heat transfer. In streams where groundwater inputs are significant, energy input through advection can also be an important control on stream temperature. For an individual stream reach, models of stream temperature can take advantage of direct measurement or estimation of these energy inputs for a given river channel environment. Understanding spatial patterns of stream temperature at a landscape scale requires predicting how this environment varies through space, and under different atmospheric conditions. At the landscape scale, air temperature is often used as a surrogate for the dominant controls on stream temperature. In this study we show that, in regions where groundwater inputs are key controls and the degree of groundwater input varies in space, air temperature alone is unlikely to explain within-landscape stream temperature patterns. We illustrate how a geologic template can offer insight into landscape-scale patterns of stream temperature and its predictability from air temperature relationships. We focus on variation in stream temperature within headwater streams within the McKenzie River basin in western Oregon. In this region, as in other areas of the Pacific Northwest, fish sensitivity to summer stream temperatures continues to be a pressing environmental issue. We show that, within the McKenzie, streams which are sourced from deeper groundwater reservoirs versus shallow subsurface flow systems have distinct summer temperature regimes. Groundwater streams are colder, less variable and less sensitive to air temperature variation. We use these results from the western Oregon Cascade hydroclimatic regime to illustrate a conceptual framework for developing regional-scale indicators of stream temperature variation that considers the underlying geologic controls on spatial variation, and the relative roles played by energy and water inputs. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatially discontinuous modern sedimentation in Georgian Bay, Huron Basin, Great Lakes

High-resolution seismic reflection profile data show that the modern sediment cover (over the last 150 years) in Georgian Bay is thin and spatially discontinuous. Sediments rich in ragweed pollen, largely derived from siltation linked to land clearing and European settlement, form a thin, discontinuous veneer on the lakebed. Much of the lakebed consists of exposed sediments deposited during the late glacial or early postglacial. Accumulation rates of modern sediments range from < 0 mm/year (net erosion) to ∼3.2 mm/year, often within a few hundred metres spatially. These rates are much lower than those reported for the main basin of Lake Huron and the other Great Lakes, and are attributed to the low sediment supply. Only a few small rivers flow into Georgian Bay, and most of the basin is surrounded by bedrock of Precambrian gneiss and granite to the east, and Silurian dolostone, limestone and shale to the west. Thick deposits of Pleistocene drift, found on the Georgian Bay shoreline only between Meaford and Port Severn, are the main sediment source for the entire basin at present. Holocene to modern sediments are even absent from some deep basins of Georgian Bay. These findings have implications for the ultimate fate of anthropogenic contaminants in Georgian Bay. While microfossil assemblages in the ragweed-rich sediments record increased eutrophication over the last 150 years, most pollutants generated in the Georgian Bay catchment are not accumulating on the lakebed and are probably exported from the Bay.     

Evidence of space weathering in regolith breccias II: Asteroidal regolith breccias

Abstract– Space weathering products, such as agglutinates and nanophase iron‐bearing rims are easily preserved through lithification in lunar regolith breccias, thus such products, if produced, should be preserved in asteroidal regolith breccias as well. A study of representative regolith breccia meteorites, Fayetteville (H4) and Kapoeta (howardite), was undertaken to search for physical evidence of space weathering on asteroids. Amorphous or npFe⁰‐bearing rims cannot be positively identified in Fayetteville, although possible glass rims were found. Extensive friction melt was discovered in the meteorite that is difficult to differentiate from weathered materials. Several melt products, including spherules and agglutinates, as well as one irradiated rim and one possible npFe⁰‐bearing rim were identified in Kapoeta. The existence of these products suggests that lunar‐like space weathering processes are, or have been, active on asteroids.     

A spatially explicit degree-day model of Rift Valley fever transmission risk in the continental United States

A spatially explicit degree-day model was used to evaluate the risk of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) transmission by mosquitoes to humans and livestock within five target states in the continental United States: California, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, and Texas. A geographic information system was used to model potential virus transmission based on a 12-day moving window assessment of the extrinsic incubation period theorized for RVFV in the United States. Risk of potential virus transmission in each state was spatially evaluated on a 10-km grid using average historical daily temperature data from 1994 to 2003. The highest levels of transmission risk occur in California and Texas, with parts of these states at risk of RVFV transmission for up to 8 months per year. Northern Minnesota, central New York, and most of coastal and high-elevation California are at low to null risk. Risk of impact to the livestock industry is greatest in California, Texas, and Nebraska. A standard global climate model was used to evaluate future risk in the year 2030 in Nebraska, and showed an increase of transmission risk days from approximately 3 to 4 months per year.     

A land-use-based modelling chain to assess the impacts of Natural Water Retention Measures on Europe’s Green Infrastructure

This article details the process of integrating models to answer a specific policy-driven question: ‘What could be the impact of proposed Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRMs) on Europe’s Green Infrastructure (GI)?’ It describes the new Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP), now enabling a high spatial scale (100-m) and large coverage (pan-European), whereby several sector-specific models contribute to assessing the impact of regional-level policy on a given spatial topic of concern. The configuration (land claims and land allocations modules) and calibration (accessibility and biophysical suitability) of the LUMP are explained. Four NWRM scenarios (riparian areas, afforestation, grassland and baseline scenario) are configured to run the simulations. For the reference: year 2006, the spatial representation of GI is based on land-use features of a refined version of the CORINE Land Cover (CLC), and resumed as connected components made of nodes and links.

Mathematical morphological image processing and network graph theory model, available from the free software package GUIDOS (the Joint Research Center of the European Commission), enabled the measurement of the GI connectivity and identified most critical links. Results show that the competition for land claimed by different economic sectors, combined with policy-driven rule-sets for the implementation of different NWRMs, yields very different results for the 2030 land-use projections, and subsequently for the morphology of GI. Three indicators associated with the morphology of GI are computed in order to assess the model outputs for 2030. The indicators are computed to answer the following questions: (1) How is the quantity of GI affected by each of the NWRM, and what proportion of that GI is most valuable? (2) What is the location of the most critical nodes and connectors of GI, and what land-use conversions occur under these? (3) Are the average components getting larger or smaller?

Whereas the grassland measure results in the largest net increase of GI, the afforestation measure results in the overall largest number of hectares of key nodes and links within the network. Land conversions occur under the critical GI nodes and links, with a large increase in agricultural areas, especially for the riparian measure under critical nodes and the grassland measure under critical links. Also predominant is the swapping of land from pasture to forest under critical links with the afforestation measure. The riparian measure most increases the average size of GI components, and all three measures contribute to bridging two large components which were divided in the 2006 land-use map, thus increasing the size of the largest component by more than 50%.     

Downscaling climate-model output in mountainous terrain using local topographic lapse rates for hydrologic modeling of climate-change impacts

One of the challenges in using general circulation model (GCM) output is the need to downscale beyond the model’s coarse spatial grid for use in hydrologic modeling of climate-change impacts. In mountainous terrain, using elevation as a primary control on temperature and precipitation at the local scale provides the potential for topographic variables to be used to adjust climate-model output. Here, local topographic lapse rates (LTLR) were estimated from gridded climate data for the Pacific Northwest of the United States and used to downscale GCM output. Skill scores were calculated for the LTLR-downscaled climate-model output relative to an existing set of model output downscaled using the established statistical downscaling technique of localized constructed analogs (LOCA). The results indicate that the LTLR method performs well in the mountainous study region relative to the LOCA method. LTLR downscaling offers a promising method for downscaling climate-model output in regions in which elevation strongly controls climate, particularly for studying impacts of future climate change on water resources.