Vulnerability and risk: comparing assessment approaches

The concepts vulnerability and risk are of great importance in the fields of climate change and natural hazards. Confusion is asserted in the terminology used by the respective communities, and a large conceptual literature has not solved this problem. This affects the communication within and between the two communities and the comparison of results from vulnerability and risk assessments. This paper argues that the main difference between methods to assess vulnerability and risk in the climate and the disaster communities is not a conceptual one, but rather different terminologies are used. This point is made using a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change that makes the structure of vulnerability and risk assessments explicit. The framework distinguishes three assessment approaches in the field of vulnerability to climate change, which recur—under different labels—in the risk assessment approaches analysed. While within each community, the same terms are ambiguously used to refer to more than one assessment approach, the confusion is enhanced between the two communities by using different labels for very similar approaches. As an application of the results, similarities and differences between two assessment tools are analysed: the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model (DIVA) for the case of vulnerability to climate change and the CATastrophe SIMulation model (CatSim) for risk of natural hazards.     

Mineralogical approaches to sourcing pipes and figurines from the eastern woodlands,U.S.A.

Provenance studies of stone artifacts often rely heavily upon chemical techniques such as neutron activation analysis. However, stone specimens with very similar chemical composition can have different mineralogies (distinctive crystalline structures as well as variations within the same mineral) that are not revealed by multielemental techniques. Because mineralogical techniques are often cheap and usually nondestructive, beginning with mineralogy allows the researcher to gain valuable information and then to be selective about how many samples are submitted for expensive and somewhat destructive chemical analysis, thus conserving both valuable samples and funds. Our University of Illinois team of archaeologists and geologists employs Portable Infrared Mineral Analyzer (PIMA) spectroscopy, X‐ray diffraction (XRD), and Sequential acid dissolution/XRD/Inductively coupled plasma (SAD‐XRD‐ICP) analyses. Two case studies of Hopewellian pipes and Mississippian figurines illustrate this mineralogical approach. The results for both studies identify sources relatively close to the sites where the artifacts were recovered: Sterling, Illinois (rather than Ohio) for the (Hopewell) pipes and Missouri (rather than Arkansas or Oklahoma) for the Cahokia figurines. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Elevated biomass of mesozooplankton and enhanced fecal pellet flux in cyclonic and mode-water eddies in the Sargasso Sea

Accumulating evidence points to the importance of mesoscale eddies in supplying nutrients to surface waters in oligotrophic gyres. However, the nature of the biological response and its evolution over time has yet to be elucidated. Changes in mesozooplankton community composition due to eddy perturbation also could affect biogeochemical cycling. Over the course of two summers we sampled seven eddies in the Sargasso Sea. We focused on and followed a post-phytoplankton bloom cyclonic eddy (C1) in 2004 and a blooming mode-water anticyclonic eddy (A4) in 2005. We collected zooplankton in all eddies using a Multiple Opening and Closing Net Environmental Sampling System (MOCNESS) and quantified biomass (>0.15 mm, in five size fractions) from 0 to 700 m over nine discrete depth intervals. Zooplankton biomass (>0.5 mm) in the upper 150 m was similarly enhanced at night for the periphery of C1 and the center of A4 at 0.514 g m⁻² and 0.533 g m⁻², respectively, compared to outside (0.183 g m⁻² outside C1 and 0.197 g m⁻² outside A4). Despite minimal chlorophyll a enhancement and dominance by picoplankton in C1, zooplankton biomass increased most for the largest size class (>5 mm). Gut fluorescence for euphausiids and large copepods was also elevated on the C1 periphery. In A4, peak biomass occurred at eddy center coincident with peak primary production, but was highly variable (changing by >3-fold) over time, perhaps resulting from the dense, but patchy distribution of diatom chains in this region. Shifts in zooplankton community composition and abundance were reflected in enhancement of fecal pellet production and active transport by diel vertical migration in eddies. Inside C1 the flux of zooplankton fecal pellets at 150 m in June 2004 was 1.5-fold higher than outside the eddy, accounting for 9% of total particulate organic carbon (POC) flux. The flux of fecal pellets (mostly from copepods) increased through the summer in eddy A4, matching concurrent increases in zooplankton <2 mm in length, and accounting for up to 12% of total POC flux. Active carbon transport by vertically migrating zooplankton was 37% higher on the periphery of C1 and 74% higher at the center of A4 compared to the summer mean at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) station. Despite contrasting responses by the phytoplankton community to cyclonic and mode-water eddies, mesozooplankton biomass was similarly enhanced, possibly due to differential physical and biological aggregation mechanisms, and resulted in important zooplankton-mediated changes in mesoscale biogeochemistry.     

The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite: A preserved record of atmospheric entry processes

Fusion crusts form during the atmospheric entry heating of meteorites and preserve a record of the conditions that occurred during deceleration in the atmosphere. The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite closely resembles that of other stony meteorites, and in particular CM2 chondrites, since it is dominated by olivine phenocrysts set in a glassy mesostasis with magnetite, and is highly vesicular. Dehydration cracks are unusually abundant in Winchcombe. Failure of this weak layer is an additional ablation mechanism to produce large numbers of particles during deceleration, consistent with the observation of pulses of plasma in videos of the Winchcombe fireball. Calving events might provide an observable phenomenon related to meteorites that are particularly susceptible to dehydration. Oscillatory zoning is observed within olivine phenocrysts in the fusion crust, in contrast to other meteorites, perhaps owing to temperature fluctuations resulting from calving events. Magnetite monolayers are found in the crust, and have also not been previously reported, and form discontinuous strata. These features grade into magnetite rims formed on the external surface of the crust and suggest the trapping of surface magnetite by collapse of melt. Magnetite monolayers may be a feature of meteorites that undergo significant degassing. Silicate warts with dendritic textures were observed and are suggested to be droplets ablated from another stone in the shower. They, therefore, represent the first evidence for intershower transfer of ablation materials and are consistent with the other evidence in the Winchcombe meteorite for unusually intense gas loss and ablation, despite its low entry velocity.     

A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify.     

Redshift surveys

Recent results and current plans for redshift surveys were the subject of an RAS discussion meeting on 10 October 2003, organized by Ofer Lahav and Jon Loveday. Sarah Bridle and Alan Heavens report.     

Application of participatory principles to investigation of the natural world: An example from Chile

Participatory research in environmental and natural resources-related fields is premised on many of the same notions that underlie participatory processes in decision making. This study examines one instance of participatory research to assess the extent to which the documented benefits of participatory decision-making hold up in the context of research. A survey of Chilean shell-fishers engaged in research with marine biologists assesses the relationships between four variables: fishers’ participation in research, fishers’ opinions of biologists, fishers’ trust in biologists, and fishers’ acquisition of knowledge from biologists. Results illuminate the multidimensionality of these variables and suggest that complex interrelationships between them make the benefits of participatory research more nuanced than those reported for participatory decision-making. For instance, participatory research may provide low benefits when participatory research outcomes differ little from those produced solely by scientists. In addition, high-cost scenarios may result when outcomes of participatory research are inferior to those produced solely by scientists. A third downside may result when participation leads participants to increase their deference to scientific knowledge, thereby defeating the corroborative purpose of their participation. A fourth effect may occur when increased trust by in scientists results from participation, decreasing participants’ perceived need to take part in research.     

Flare-induced signals in polarization measurements during the X2.6 flare on 2005 January 15

Flare-induced signals in polarization measurements which were manifested as apparent polarity reversal in magnetograms have been reported since 1981. We are motivated to further quantify the phenomenon by asking two questions: can we distinguish the flare-induced signals from real magnetic changes during flares, and what we can learn about flare energy release from the flare-induced signals? We select the X2.6 flare that occurred on 2005 January 15, for further study. The flare took place in NOAA active re-gion (AR) 10720 at approximately the central meridian, which makes the interpretation of the vector magnetograms less ambiguous. We have identified that flare-induced signals during this flare appeared in six zones. The zones are located within an average distance of 5 Mm from their weight center to the main magnetic neutral line, have an average size of (0.6±0.4)×1017 cm2, duration of 13±4 min, and flux density change of 181±125 G in the area of reversed polarity. The following new facts have been revealed by this study: (1) the flare-induced signal is also seen in the transverse magnetograms but with smaller magnitude, e.g., about 50 G; (2) the flare-induced signal mainly manifests itself as apparent polarity reversal, but the signal starts and ends as a weakening of flux density; (3) The flare-induced signals appear in phase with the peaks of hard X-ray emission as observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic lmager (RHESSI), and mostly trace the position of RHESSI hard X-ray footpoint sources. (4) in four zones, it takes place cotemporally with real magnetic changes which persist after the flare. Only for the other two zones does the flux density recover to the pre-flare level immediately after the flare.The physical implications of the flare-induced signal are discussed in view of its relevance to the non-thermal electron precipitation and primary energy release in the flare.