Modeling flocculation in a hypertidal estuary

When fine particles are involved, cohesive properties of sediment can result in flocculation and significantly complicate sediment process studies. We combine data from field observations and state-of-the-art modeling to investigate and predict flocculation processes within a hypertidal estuary. The study site is the Welsh Channel located at the entrance of the Dee Estuary in Liverpool Bay. Field data consist of measurements from a fixed site deployment during 12–22 February 2008. Grain size, suspended sediment volume concentration, and current velocity were obtained hourly from moored instruments at 1.5 m above bed. Near-bottom water samples taken every hour from a research vessel are used to convert volume concentrations to mass concentrations for the moored measurements. We use the hydrodynamic model Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) coupled with the turbulence model General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and a sediment module to obtain three-dimensional distributions of suspended particulate matter (SPM). Flocculation is identified by changes in grain size. Small flocs were found during flood and ebb periods—and correlate with strong currents—due to breakup, while coarse flocs were present during slack waters because of aggregation. A fractal number of 2.4 is found for the study site. Turbulent stresses and particle settling velocities are estimated and are found to be related via an exponential function. The result is a simple semiempirical formulation for the fall velocity of the particles solely depending on turbulent stresses. The formula is implemented in the full three-dimensional model to represent changes in particle size due to flocculation processes. Predictions from the model are in agreement with observations for both settling velocity and SPM. The SPM fortnight variability was reproduced by the model and the concentration peaks are almost in phase with those from field data.     

Models for reproducing the damage scenario of the Lorca earthquake

A damage scenario modelling is developed and compared with the damage distribution observed after the 2011 Lorca earthquake. The strong ground motion models considered include five modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) amply used worldwide. Capacity and fragility curves from the Risk-UE project are utilized to model building vulnerability and expected damage. Damage estimates resulting from different combinations of GMPE and capacity/fragility curves are compared with the actual damage scenario, establishing the combination that best explains the observed damage distribution. In addition, some recommendations are proposed, including correction factors in fragility curves in order to reproduce in a better way the observed damage in masonry and reinforce concrete buildings. The lessons learned would contribute to improve the simulation of expected damages due to future earthquakes in Lorca or other regions in Spain with similar characteristics regarding attenuation and vulnerability.     

Local site effect microzonation of Lorca town (SE Spain)

Local site effect assessment based on subsurface ground conditions is often the key to evaluate urban seismic hazard. The site effect evaluation in Lorca town (south-eastern Spain) started with a classification of urban geology through the geological mapping at scale 1:10,000 and the use of geotechnical data and geophysical surveys. The 17 geological formations identified were classified into 5 geological/seismic formations according to their seismic amplification capacity obtained from ambient vibration measurements as well as from simultaneous strong motion records. The shear-wave velocity structure of each geological/seismic formation was evaluated by means of inversion of Rayleigh wave dispersion data obtained from vertical-component array records of ambient noise. Nakamura’s method was applied to determine a predominant period distribution map. The spectral amplification factors were fourfold the values recorded in a reference hard-rock site. Finally, the capability of this study for explaining the damage distribution caused by the May 11th, 2011 Lorca destructive earthquake (Mw \(=\) 5.2) was examined. The methods used in this work are of assistance to evaluate ground amplification phenomena in urban areas of complex geology as Lorca town due to future earthquakes with applicability on urban seismic risk management.     

Slope instabilities triggered by the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Murcia,Spain): comparison to previous hazard assessments and proposition of a new hazard map and probability of failure equation

The Lorca Basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomena of earthquake-induced landslides and its assessment in the frame of different seismic scenarios. However, it has not been until the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquakes when it has been possible to conduct a systematic approach to the problem. In this paper we present an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes which comprises more than 100 cases, mainly rock and soil falls of small size (1–100  \(\hbox {m}^{3}\) ). The distribution of these instabilities is here compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-years return period in the Lorca Basin \((\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.0)\) based on both low- and high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM); and a second one matching the occurrence of the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.2\) 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was performed using the higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacements related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are lower than 2 cm in both the hazard scenarios considered. Additionally, the predicted Newmark displacements were correlated to the inventory of slope instabilities to develop a probability of failure equation. The fit seems to be very good since most of the mapped slope failures are located on the higher probability areas. The probability of slope failure in the Lorca Basin for a seismic event similar to the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}\) 5.2 2011 Lorca earthquake can be considered as very low (0–4 %).     

Tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series in the Southeastern Betic Cordillera,Spain

In this work we analyze the tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series occurred in the Internal Zones of the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain) and surrounding areas, the tectonic region where took place the 11th May 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca earthquake. We revisit and make a synthesis of the seven largest and damaging seismic series occurred from 1984 to 2011. We analyze their seismotectonic setting, and their geological sources under the light of recent advances in the knowledge on active faults, neotectonics, seismotectonics and stress regime, with special attention focused on the Lorca Earthquake. These seismic series are characterized by two types of focal mechanisms, produced mainly by two sets of active faults, NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW small (no larger than 20–30 km) extensional faults with some strike slip component, and E–W to NE–SW large strike slip faults (more than 50 km long) with some compressional component (oblique slip faults). The normal fault earthquakes related to the smaller faults are dominant in the interior of large crustal tectonic blocks that are bounded by the large E–W to NE–SW strike-slip faults. The strike slip earthquakes are associated to the reactivation of segments or intersegment regions of the large E–W to NE–SW faults bounding those crustal tectonic blocks. Most of the seismic series studied in this work can be interpreted as part of the background seismicity that occurs within the crustal blocks that are strained under a transpressional regime driven by the major strike slip shear corridors bounding the blocks. The seismotectonic analysis and the phenomenology of the studied series indicate that it is usual the occurrence of damaging compound earthquakes of M  \(\sim \)  5.0 associated with triggering processes driven by coseismic stress transfer. These processes mainly occur in the seismic series generated by NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW faults. These mechanical interaction processes may induce a higher frequency of occurrence of this kind of earthquakes than considered in traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and it should be taken into account in future seismic hazard assessments.     

Upper Carboniferous retroarc volcanism with submarine and subaerial facies at the western Gondwana margin of Argentina

During Late Carboniferous times a continental magmatic arc developed at the western margin of Gondwana in South America, as several marine sedimentary basins were formed at the same time in the retroarc region. North of 33°S, at Cordón Agua del Jagüel, Precordillera of Mendoza, Argentina, a volcanic sequence crops out which was emplaced in a submarine environment with some subaerial exposures, and it is intercalated in marine sediments of Agua del Jagüel Formation, which fills of one of these retroarc basins. This paper presents, for the first time, a facies analyses together with geochemical and isotopic data of this volcanic suite, suggesting its deposition in an ensialic retroarc marine basin. The volcanic succession comprises debris flows with either sedimentary or volcanic fragments, base surge, resedimented massive and laminated dacitic–andesitic hyaloclastite, pillow lava, basic hyaloclastite and dacitic–andesitic lavas and hyaloclastite facies. Its composition is bimodal, either basaltic or dacitic–andesitic. The geochemistry data indicate a subalkaline, low K calk-alkaline and metaluminous affinity. The geochemistry of the basalts points to an origin of the magmas from a depleted mantle source with some crustal contamination. Conversely, the geochemistry of the dacites–andesites shows an important participation of both crustal components and subduction related fluids. A different magmatic source for the basalts than for the dacites–andesites is also supported by Sr and Nd isotopic initial ratios and Nd model ages. The characteristics of this magmatic suite suggest its emplacement in an extensional setting probably associated with the presence of a steepened subduction zone at this latitude during Upper Carboniferous times.     

IUPA: a tool for the evaluation of the general usefulness of practices for adaptation to climate change and variability

A prototype multi-purpose index is proposed for use in the evaluation of practices for adaptation to climate variability and change. The Index of Usefulness of Practices for Adaptation (IUPA) allows the user to assign weights and scores to a set of user-defined evaluation criteria. Individual criterion scores are aggregated into a final index value. Both the final value and the individual parameter scores provide useful information for improved decision making in the context of climate change. An innovative aspect of IUPA is that guidance is given to the user through the inclusion of recommendations on evaluation criteria and criterion-specific weight factors. These have been defined by a panel of experts from the Latin-American and Caribbean Region (LAC). Application of the index is demonstrated for an existing adaptation practice from the Coquimbo Region, Chile. The IUPA tool is recommended for use in the evaluation of adaptation practices in their design, implementation and post-implementation phase. It is practical for a quick first assessment or when limited financial resources are available, making the tool especially useful for practitioners in the developing world. The index is flexible both from the perspective of its construction and use. Additional expert opinions can easily be included in the future versions of the tool.     

Implications of geomorphological research for recent and prehistoric avalanches and related hazards at Huascaran,Peru

Detailed research of superficial deposits below the northern peak of Huascaran (Cordillera Blanca) provides new information on the limits of a paleo-avalanche originating from this mountain. Geomorphological mapping of the sediments identified glacial deposits, deposits from historical rock-debris avalanches and huge boulders from a paleo-avalanche. Schmidt Hammer rock-hardness tests were used to distinguish between the several generations of rock-debris avalanches, but largely failed to distinguish between the much older moraine and the paleo-avalanche sediments. Thus, only the field geomorphological mapping proved to be reliable for identifying the limits of the paleo-avalanche. The limits identified as granite boulders deposited over volcanic rocks were found to extend 30 m further up the opposite valley slope than previously had been mapped. This larger extent implies a greater volume and/or greater mobility for the prehistoric event.