The evolution of prominences and their relationship to active centers

The radiation field, emergent from an inhomogeneous atmosphere, may differ significantly from that calculated using a mean model for such an atmosphere. In the solar case, horizontal anisotropy of the granulation pattern leads to azimuthal dependence of the emergent intensity, and this appears as a latitude-dependent limb flux which may mimic oblateness. We examine this latitude-dependence for several two and three-dimensional models of the inhomogeneous solar atmosphere, with varying degrees of anisotropy in the granulation pattern. Elongation along an east-west axis of about 7% would yield a signal somewhat imperfectly mimicking an excess oblateness of 4 × 10^–5. Using the Babcock-Leighton model of the general solar magnetic field we show that some stretching of granules, of this order of magnitude, should be expected. However, it may vary with the solar activity cycle, and in any case the result is very sensitive to the parameters adopted. Even if study of granulation observations should exclude elongations as high as 7%, smaller essentially undetectable elongations may exist. We find that 1 % elongation can account for 25–50 % of a signal corresponding to excess oblateness 4 × 10^–5. We conclude that anisotropy of the granulation pattern may influence oblateness determinations; when this is considered together with other effects, much of the claimed oblateness may be eliminated.     

Local music policies within a global music industry: cultural quarters in Manchester and Sheffield

This paper will explore the relationship between the local and the global in the music industry through the lens of place-based cultural policies.The first part of the paper will outline current debates around the complex interaction of the local and the global in culture in general and the popular music industry in particular. Alongside the continuous expansion of globalisation has been a reassertion of ‘place', of ‘locality'. Whilst this has been investigated to some extent at the level of local music scenes it has never been fully addressed in terms of music industry policy as part of an economic development strategy. Yet it is here that the particular values of ‘place' are asserted in the face of some ‘global' music industry with a view to developing (or at least retaining some of the benefits of) a local music industry.Whilst situating itself within these debates about the relationship of local and global musical production and consumption, the paper explores the different strategies of two northern English cities and their attempts to promote culture, and music, within each cities ‘cultural quarter': Sheffield's Cultural Industries Quarter and Manchester's Northern Quarter. The paper analyses the role and appropriateness of local authority policy intervention, the importance of ‘soft' networks within local music scenes and the different ways in which authorities in each example have tried to overcome dichotomies of art and industry, cultural and economy.     

Pre‐Cenomanian vs. Cenozoic folding in the High Atlas revealed by palaeomagnetic data

Palaeomagnetic data, and specifically remagnetizations, are used to constrain the geometric reconstruction at 100 Ma of three anticlines cored by gabbroic intrusions and Triassic shales in the Central High Atlas, Morocco. Previous palaeomagnetic results have revealed that the Mesozoic sediments of this region acquired a pervasive remagnetization at the end of the Early Cretaceous. The restoration of palaeomagnetic vectors to the remagnetization stage (100 Ma) allows us to determine the dip of the beds during this period and, thereby, to reconstruct structures during that time and determine the relative contributions of Mesozoic magmatic/diapiric uplift vs. Cenozoic compression to the present‐day dip. Our results indicate that three major anticlines in the Central High Atlas (Tasraft, Tassent and Tissila) were initiated to different degrees before the Late Cretaceous and were reactivated during Cenozoic compression to acquire their present‐day geometry. We also discuss the origin of these structures.     

Probabilistic radar rainfall nowcasts using empirical and theoretical uncertainty models

Weather radar has a potential to provide accurate short‐term (0–3 h) forecasts of rainfall (i.e. radar nowcasts), which are of great importance in warnings and risk management for hydro‐meteorological events. However, radar nowcasts are affected by large uncertainties, which are not only linked to limitations in the forecast method but also because of errors in the radar rainfall measurement. The probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting approach attempts to quantify these uncertainties by delivering the forecasts in a probabilistic form. This study implements two forms of probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting for a hilly area in the south of Manchester, namely, the theoretically based scheme [ensemble rainfall forecasts (ERF)‐TN] and the empirically based scheme (ERF‐EM), and explores which one exhibits higher predictive skill. The ERF‐TN scheme generates ensemble forecasts of rainfall in which each ensemble member is determined by the stochastic realisation of a theoretical noise component. The so‐called ERF‐EM scheme proposed and applied for the first time in this study, aims to use an empirically based error model to measure and quantify the combined effect of all the error sources in the radar rainfall forecasts. The essence of the error model is formulated into an empirical relation between the radar rainfall forecasts and the corresponding ‘ground truth’ represented by the rainfall field from rain gauges measurements. The ensemble members generated by the two schemes have been compared with the rain gauge rainfall. The hit rate and the false alarm rate statistics have been computed and combined into relative operating characteristic curves. The comparison of the performance scores for the two schemes shows that the ERF‐EM achieves better performance than the ERF‐TN at 1‐h lead time. The predictive skills of both schemes are almost identical when the lead time increases to 2 h. In addition, the relation between uncertainty in the radar rainfall forecasts and lead time is also investigated by computing the dispersion of the generated ensemble members. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?

Twenty-first century climate model projections show an amplification of the annual cycle in tropical precipitation with increased strength in both wet and dry seasons, but uncertainty is large and few studies have examined transition seasons. Here we analyze coupled climate model projections of global land monsoons and show a redistribution of precipitation from spring to summer in northern (North America, West Africa and Southeast Asia) and southern (South America, Southern Africa) regions. The annual cycle changes are global in scale. Two mechanisms, remote (based on tropospheric stability) and local (based on low level and surface moisture), are evaluated through the annual cycle. Increases in tropospheric stability persist from winter into spring and are reinforced by a reduction in surface moisture conditions, suggesting that in spring both remote and local mechanisms act to inhibit convection. This enhanced spring convective barrier leads to reduced early season rainfall; however, once sufficient increases in moisture (by transport) are achieved, decreases in tropospheric stability result in increased precipitation during the late rainy season. Further examination of this mechanism is needed in observations and models, as the projected changes would have substantial implications for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.     

Alter-geopolitics: Other securities are happening

In an age of increasing state (in)security, some are coming together on their own to build alternative nonviolent securities. They are making connections across distance and difference which focus on the safety of bodies (often by actually moving bodies), and ground geopolitics in everyday life. The term anti-geopolitics focuses on resistance to hegemonic geopolitics (material or discursive), rather than this sort of effort to build something new. Feminist geopolitics is a form of anti-geopolitics that not only takes apart but also puts the pieces together in new ways - with broader definitions of security for more bodies in more places. Yet it has not generally looked at that practice as engaged in outside of academia. I propose the term alter-geopolitics for a type of feminist geopolitics as a way to extend both the concepts of anti- and feminist geopolitics. I argue for the term as a reminder to look to grassroots practice, to the ways that groups are doing geopolitics in the streets, in homes, in jungles, and in many other spaces ‘off the page’. Though they may not think of their work as geopolitics, framing it in this way can open fruitful conversations. As academics we have much to learn and offer through collaboratively thinking with such groups about security. I have been doing this with international accompaniers in Colombia and discuss their work, and the peace community of San José that they accompany, as forms of alter-geopolitics.