Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Diel-Cycling Hypoxia in Estuarine Tributaries

The distribution and intensity of hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) in estuaries is increasing worldwide due to cultural eutrophication. This study quantifies the strength of associations between the duration of diel-cycling severe hypoxia (≤2 mg O₂ l⁻¹) in bottom water (∼15 cm above bottom) of a shallow (<2 m) coastal lagoon estuary (Delaware, USA) and abiotic environmental variables (water temperature, insolation, tide, streamflow, and wind) and predicts the duration of severe hypoxia given different combinations of these variables. The intensity and spatial extent and dynamics of diel-cycling severe hypoxia events were defined. Vertical variability in dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration during the daytime was also determined. During the summers of 2001–2005, bottom DO data were collected for periods of weeks to months at multiple sites using automated sondes. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and regression tree analysis (RTA) were used to determine the relative importance of the environmental variables in predicting the number of hours of severe hypoxia per day. Key findings of the study were that severe hypoxia events of minutes to hours in duration occurred frequently in all four tributaries sampled, primarily between 0200 and 1000 hours. Severe hypoxia duration and diel-cycling amplitudes of DO concentration increased in the up-tributary direction. Hierarchically, the duration of severe hypoxia was influenced mostly by the mean daily water temperature, then by preceding days’ total insolation, percentage of morning hours (02:00 to 10:00 a.m.) ebb tide, and daily streamflow. Collectively, the variables examined by the MLR and the RTA approaches accounted for 62% and 65% of the variability in the duration of severe hypoxia, respectively. RTA demonstrated that daily mean water temperature above 26.3°C and previous day’s total insolation below 13.6 kW m⁻² were associated with the longest lasting severe hypoxic events (9.56 h). The environmental variables and combinations of conditions that modulate or augment diel-cycling hypoxia presented in this paper enhance understanding of this widespread and growing phenomenon and provide additional insight regarding the extent to which it can impact food webs in very shallow estuarine waters that often serve as nursery habitat.     

Relation between temperature changes of the mid-upper troposphere over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance in the twentieth century

The δ¹⁸O data obtained from an 18.7 m ice core drilled in Chongce Ice Cap at an elevation of 6,530 m a.s.l. in the West Kunlun Mountains on the northern Tibetan Plateau show a strong correlation with the summer temperature of the middle to upper troposphere over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. Based on this, the δ¹⁸O record can be used as a proxy of the June–September mean temperature of the mid-upper troposphere (MUT) from 1903 to 1992. The time span of the ice core record is much longer than the meteorological data available only after 1948. Using the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), the δ¹⁸O record is decomposed into various frequency components and compared with the solar irradiance variations of the same period. The results show that (1) The June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes is completely decomposed into four IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and an increasing trend. (2) Solar irradiance is decomposed into the Schwabe cycle, the Hale cycle, the Gleissberg cycle, and an increasing trend. (3) The correlation coefficients between the June and September mean temperatures of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance on the longer timescales (at least more than 11-year) show the significant correlations; their phase changes are basically identical in general, and (4) the 11-year Schwabe cycle exists in the June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes during most of the time from 1903 to 1992, and only in the two high-temperature phases (1929–1944 and from 1975 to the present) may global warming disturb this relation. A full understanding of this phenomenon would shed insight into the potential consequence of global warming on the MUT.     

STUDY ON SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION OF URBAN LAND PRICE DISTRIBUTION IN CHANGZHOU CITY OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

1INTRODUCTION The level and periodic changes of land price are interest- ing subjects for the governors, investors, researchers and grass-roots. Currently, the higher land price in China has become the focus among the people, from central go- vernment tocommon citizens,especially in theChang- jiang (Yangtze) River Delta area around Shanghai City. So that studyingthisproblem have both an academic and practicalmeaning. One characteristic ofland is fixed location (the others are high cost…     

基于SilverLight和REST的富网络地理信息系统框架设计

 在WebGIS的快速发展过程中,其架构方法和实现技术的研究一直是人们关注的热点。本文针对传统WebGIS开发复杂度高、交互体验性贫乏、运行效率低等不足,在对RIA/SilverLight和REST技术的研究基础上,以整体结构模块化,开发行为统一化,代码可复用及经验可复用的指导思路下,提出由空间数据服务器(数据访问层DAL)、GIS服务和Web服务服务器(业务逻辑层BLL)及部署有SilverLight插件的浏览器(表现层UI)组成的3层架构式富网络地理信息系统,并阐述了数据层中空间属性数据库的设计和建立步骤以及优化经验,分析了业务逻辑层的构成和运行机制,为提高系统开发效率使用MVVM(Model-View-View Model,模型－视图－视图模型)设计模式,将表现层分为前端用户界面和后台逻辑两部分,并描述了用户熟悉的Office Ribbon设计样式的开发方法,说明了后台逻辑架构组件各自功能及通讯路径。最后,为验证此框架能够有效提高系统开发效率、丰富用户体验和改善系统运行性能表现等优势,利用SilverLight(C#)实现了应用实例——LightGIS。系统开发和运行实验表明,该框架能够很好地达成以下目的:(1)实现优美的用户操作界面和丰富的互操作性体验;(2)提供平滑、流畅的地图服务和高响应性空间分析;(3)具备优秀的系统可扩展潜力和可配置性。     

PLL Tracking Performance in the Presence of Oscillator Phase Noise

The tracking performance of a Phase Lock Loop (PLL) is affected by the influence of several error sources. In addition to thermal noise and dynamic stress error, oscillator phase noise can cause significant phase jitter which degrades the tracking performance. Oscillator phase noise is usually caused by two different effects: Allan deviation phase noise is caused by frequency instabilities of the receiver's reference oscillator and the satellite's frequency standard. It can be termed as system-inherent phase noise and is relevant for both static and dynamic applications. “External” phase noise, however, is caused by vibration and is a major problem for dynamic applications. In the context of this paper, both types of phase noise will be modeled and the resulting integrals will be evaluated for PLLs up to the third order. Besides, phase jitter induced by thermal noise and signal dynamics will also be discussed, thus providing all necessary formulas for analyzing the performance of a phase lock loop in case of different forms of stress. Since the main focus is centered on the effects of oscillator phase noise, the overall PLL performance is graphically illustrated with and without consideration of oscillator phase noise. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

定点潮汐形变观测与GPS大地测量

论述了我国定点潮汐形变观测与GPS在观测周期，物理量，频域，实测精度，监测优势者方面的异同，认为定点潮汐形变观测是测震学与大地测量（含GPS）的必要补充，介绍了我国定点潮汐形变观测技术的发展与台网观测技术，以及它在我国10多次中强震测报中的应用。     

胶东招掖地区滦家河花岗岩锆石U-Pb年代学、岩石地球化学及其地质意义

滦家河花岗岩体是胶东金矿区内的重要岩体,其岩性主要为中粗粒黑云母二长花岗岩。锆石LA—ICP—MS U—Pb年代学研究表明,滦家河花岗岩形成于149±2 Ma,属晚侏罗世。滦家河花岗岩Si O2的含量为64.58%~72.05%,相对较高;A/CNK值为0.98~1.22。微量元素特征显示,滦家河花岗岩富集大离子亲石元素(LILE)Rb、Ba、K,强烈亏损高场强元素(HFSE)Nb、Ta、Ti、P;稀土元素特征显示轻稀土强烈富集,重稀土极度亏损,轻微正铕异常。岩石的Nb/La和Nd/Th比值显示壳源花岗岩的特征,Rb/Sr比值暗示可能有部分幔源物质混入。结合区域地质分析认为,侏罗纪开始,太平洋板块向欧亚大陆的俯冲引发大规模幔源岩浆底侵,导致地壳物质部分熔融形成滦家河花岗岩。     

渗流井合理竖井降深确定

通过采用单位面积河流在单位水头差作用下的渗漏量来表征河流渗漏能力,建立渗流井取水理想模型,分别计算了在不同河流渗漏能力和含水层渗透性能条件下,竖井降深对渗流井出水量的影响.建立渗流井取水非稳定流模型,计算了在前期稳定竖井降深不同条件下,河流断流后渗流井出水量衰减过程及竖井降深发展过程.提出渗流井合理竖井降深应根据河流与地下水是否脱节以及含水层渗透性能,在岸边渗流井中部及一侧各布设一个观测孔,根据观测孔水位进行确定.对于含水层渗透性能较强地区,渗流井竖井降深应使得渗流井范围内地下水位与河流脱节,但高于辐射孔顶面;对于含水层渗透性能较差地区,渗流井竖井降深应使得侧部观测孔水位接近河床底面或刚出现脱节.