Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic characteristics of PM2.5 and PM10 in Delhi,India

This study presents the chemical composition (carbonaceous and nitrogenous components) of aerosols (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) along with stable isotopic composition (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) collected during winter and the summer months of 2015–16 to explore the possible sources of aerosols in megacity Delhi, India. The mean concentrations (mean?±?standard deviation at 1σ) of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were 223?±?69 µg m^?3 and 328?±?65 µg m^?3, respectively during winter season whereas the mean concentrations of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were 147?±?22 µg m^?3 and 236?±?61 µg m^?3, respectively during summer season. The mean value of δ¹³C (range: ??26.4 to ??23.4‰) and δ¹⁵N (range: 3.3 to 14.4‰) of PM_2.5 were ??25.3?±?0.5‰ and 8.9?±?2.1‰, respectively during winter season whereas the mean value of δ¹³C (range: ??26.7 to ??25.3‰) and δ¹⁵N (range: 2.8 to 11.5‰) of PM_2.5 were ??26.1?±?0.4‰ and 6.4?±?2.5‰, respectively during the summer season. Comparison of stable C and N isotopic fingerprints of major identical sources suggested that major portion of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ at Delhi were mainly from fossil fuel combustion (FFC), biomass burning (BB) (C-3 and C-4 type vegitation), secondary aerosols (SAs) and road dust (SD). The correlation analysis of δ¹³C with other C (OC, TC, OC/EC and OC/WSOC) components and δ¹⁵N with other N components (TN, NH₄⁺ and NO₃^?) are also support the source identification of isotopic signatures.

     

An analysis of prediction skill of monthly mean climate variability

In this paper, lead-time and spatial dependence in skill for prediction of monthly mean climate variability is analyzed. The analysis is based on a set of extensive hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The skill characteristics of initialized predictions is also compared with the AMIP simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to quantify the role of initial versus boundary conditions in the prediction of monthly means. The analysis is for prediction of monthly mean SST, precipitation, and 200-hPa height. The results show a rapid decay in skill with lead time for the atmospheric variables in the extratropical latitudes. Further, after a lead-time of approximately 30?C40?days, the skill of monthly mean prediction is essentially a boundary forced problem, with SST anomalies in the tropical central/eastern Pacific playing a dominant role. Because of the larger contribution from the atmospheric internal variability to monthly time-averages (compared to seasonal averages), skill for monthly mean prediction associated with boundary forcing is also lower. The analysis indicates that the prospects of skillful prediction of monthly means may remain a challenging problem, and may be limited by inherent limits in predictability.     

Surface layer turbulence spectra and dissipation rates during low winds in tropics

Spectral characteristics of surface layer turbulence in an urban atmosphere are investigated. The observations used for this purpose represent low wind conditions in the tropics. The normalized power spectral shapes exhibit the usual characteristics in the inertial subrange and obey Monin-Obukhov scaling. However, the low-frequency behaviours do not conform to the previous observed relations. For horizontal components, large energy is contained in the low frequencies in contrast to the vertical component where roll-off to zero frequency is faster.The turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate estimated from the spectra using Kolmogorov's inertial subrange law is found to be isotropic unlike the velocity variances. The expressions for the dimensionless dissipation rate do not seem to work well in low winds in an urban atmosphere. For the data considered, the dissipation rate exhibits a power law relationship with the mean windspeed and the friction velocity.     

The Indian summer monsoon drought of 2002 and its linkage with tropical convective activity over northwest Pacific

The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in 2002, which largely resulted from a major rainfall deficiency in the month of July. While moderate El Nino conditions prevailed during this period, the atmospheric convective activity was anomalously enhanced over northwest and north-central Pacific in the 10–20°N latitude belt; and heavy rainfall occurred over this region in association with a series of northward moving tropical cyclones. Similar out-of-phase rainfall variations over the Indian region and the northwest (NW) Pacific have been observed during other instances of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The dynamical linkage corresponding to this out-of-phase rainfall variability is explored in this study by conducting a set of numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model. The results from the model simulations lend credence to the role of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in forcing the out-of-phase precipitation variability over the NW Pacific and the Indian monsoon region. It is seen that the ENSO induced circulation response reveals an anomalous pattern comprising of alternating highs and lows which extend meridionally from the equatorial region into the sub-tropic and mid-latitude regions of west-central Pacific. This meridional pattern is associated with an anomalous cyclonic circulation over NW Pacific, which is found to favor enhanced tropical cyclonic activity and intensified convection over the region. In turn, the intensified convection over NW Pacific induces subsidence and rainfall deficiency over the Indian landmass through anomalous east-west circulation in the 10–20°N latitude belt. Based on the present findings, it is suggested that the convective activity over NW Pacific is an important component in mediating the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection dynamics.     

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

Geochemistry and geochronology of A-type basement granitoids in the north-central Aravalli Craton:Implications on Paleoproterozoic geodynamics of NW Indian Block

The basement granite gneisses from the north-central Aravalli Craton in NW India were investigated for geochemistry and geochronology.In a peneplain terrain,the granite gneiss outcrops are scanty and samples were collected mainly from two small hills and several ground-level exposures in the Sakhun–Ladera region.Wellfoliated granite gneiss is the dominant lithology that also hosts dark,lenticular enclaves,and is in turn,intruded by mafic dykes.The granite gneiss has silica content ranging from 61.37 wt.% to 68.27 wt.% that marks a slight overlap with the enclaves(54.32 wt.% to 62.17 wt.%).Both groups have a high K_2O/Na_2O(～2 or higher) ratio.Geochemically,the granite gneiss classify as granite–granodiorite,and enclaves as granodiorite-diorite.The In-situ LA-ICP-MS zircon U–Pb geochronology of granite gneiss has yielded a statistically valid 1721 ± 9 Ma age that we interpret as the emplacement age for the granitic protolith.Geochemical characteristics of granite gneiss underline fractional crystallization of an I-type melt as the main process,and continuity of trends in enclaves underlines their mutual genetic link.The genetic association is further verified by a consistency in the trace element characteristics and REE patterns.The Nd-isotope signatures define a single grouping for both granite gneiss and enclaves,with εNd(t) values ranging from-6.38 to-6.61,further substantiating a common source.The geochemical tectonic discrimination schemes consistently point toward an extensional setting and A-type characteristics for granite gneiss and enclaves.These are analogous to the coeval(1.72–1.75 Ga),A-type granitoids from the Khetri and Alwar basin in the North Delhi Fold Belt,implying a much larger areal extent for the Paleoproterozoic anorogenic magmatism in the northern segment of the Aravalli Craton.The Paleoproterozoic age for the presumed ‘Archean' basement in this region offers tacit evidence that the BGC–II is a stratigraphically younger terrane as compared to the Archean age,BGC–I.     

Extreme rainfall events and associated natural hazards in Alaknanda valley, Indian Himalayan region

Introduction The Himalaya is considered to be the youngest mountains on the earth, and is tectonically very active, and hence inherently (geologically) vulnerable to hazards. Extreme rainfall events, landslides, debris flows, torrents and flash floods due…