Assessment of the statistical significance of global changes in the annual river runoff in XXI century due to possible anthropogenic warming of climate

A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible.     

Searches for very high energy gamma rays from blazars with CANGAROO-III telescope in 2005-2009

We have searched for very high energy (VHE) gamma rays from four blazars using the CANGAROO-III imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope. We report the results of the observations of H 2356-309, PKS 2155-304, PKS 0537-441, and 3C 279, performed from 2005 to 2009, applying a new analysis to suppress the effects of the position dependence of Cherenkov images in the field of view. No significant VHE gamma ray emission was detected from any of the four blazars. The GeV gamma-ray spectra of these objects were obtained by analyzing Fermi/LAT archival data. Wide range (radio to VHE gamma-ray bands) spectral energy distributions (SEDs) including CANGAROO-III upper limits, GeV gamma-ray spectra, and archival data, even though they are non-simultaneous, are discussed using a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model in combination with a external Compton (EC) radiation. The HBLs (H 2356-309 and PKS 2155-304) can be explained by a simple SSC model, and PKS 0537-441 and 3C 279 are well modeled by a combination of SSC and EC model. We find a consistency with the blazar sequence in terms of strength of magnetic field and component size.     

Grain-scale variations in trace element composition of fluid-altered zircon,Acasta Gneiss Complex,northwestern Canada

SEM back-scattered electron images of zircon separates from a 2.9 Ga granitic dyke from the Acasta Gneiss Complex, Slave Province, reveal primary igneous oscillatory zoning which is transgressively overprinted by irregular alteration domains. Electron microprobe analyses show that altered zircon domains are depleted in Zr and Si relative to unaltered zircon while retaining a constant Zr/Si ratio. SIMS trace element analyses indicate that LREE are preferentially enriched in the altered domains. Altered zircon contains elevated concentrations of Ba (up to 580 ppm), Ca (up to 2% weight of the element) and common Pb (>50 ppb). The presence of LREE, Ca, Ba and common Pb in the zircons is interpreted to be the result of secondary alteration by an aqueous fluid, and not by primary incorporation during crystallization. We propose that the alteration-related elements are located in amorphous zircon domains.     

On determining the noon polar cap boundary from SuperDARN HF radar backscatter characteristics

Previous work has shown that ionospheric HF radar backscatter in the noon sector can be used to locate the footprint of the magnetospheric cusp particle precipitation. This has enabled the radar data to be used as a proxy for the location of the polar cap boundary, and hence measure the flow of plasma across it to derive the reconnection electric field in the ionosphere. This work used only single radar data sets with a field of view limited to 2 h of local time. In this case study using four of the SuperDARN radars, we examine the boundary determined over 6 h of magnetic local time around the noon sector and its relationship to the convection pattern. The variation with longitude of the latitude of the radar scatter with cusp characteristics shows a bay-like feature. It is shown that this feature is shaped by the variation with longitude of the poleward flow component of the ionospheric plasma and may be understood in terms of cusp ion time-of-flight effects. Using this interpretation, we derive the time-of-flight of the cusp ions and find that it is consistent with approximately 1 keV ions injected from a subsolar reconnection site. A method for deriving a more accurate estimate of the location of the open-closed field line boundary from HF radar data is described.     

Slump debris flows in the Akovolwo Mountains area of Benue State,Nigeria

In September 1979, rain-induced complex landslides occurred in two separate localities along the slopes of the Akovolwo Mountains near Jato-Aka in the Kwande Local Government area of Benue State, Nigeria.The two movements developed on bedrock slopes covered by a veneer of colluvium and (or) residuum no more than 1.5 to 2m deep. Each started as a slump and graduated into a debris flow. The slump, extending downhill a short distance away from the head scarp, had been reconstituted into a debris flow as the initial movement (sliding movement) of the soil mass caused remoulding of the saturated moving mass into viscous debris-laden mud. The resulting mass moved partly along a pre-existing mountain stream channel and partly along a fresh channel it cleared in the savanna forest. At the break of slope, the mass of boulders was dumped and a trail of smaller fragments littered the channels towards the Katsina-Ala River.     

Numerical studies of the transport of solar protons in interplanetary space

Numerical solutions of the Fokker-Planck equation governing the transport of solar protons are obtained using the Crank-Nicholson technique with the diffusion coefficient represented by K_r=K₀r^b where r is radial distance from the Sun and b can take on positive or negative values. As b ranges from +1 to ?3, the time to the observation of peak flux decreases by a factor of 5 for 1 MeV protons when $\text{V}\text{K}{}_0\text{=}\text{3 AU}{}^{\mathrm{b?1}}$ where V is the solar wind speed. The time to peak flux is found to be very insensitive to assumptions concerning the solar and outer scattering boundary conditions and the presence of exponential time decay in the flux does not depend on the existence of an outer boundary. At $\text{V}\text{K}{}_0\text{? 15 AU}{}^{\mathrm{b?1}}$, 1 MeV particles come from the Sun by an almost entirely convective process and suffer large adiabatic deceleration at b?0 but for b=+1, large Fermi acceleration is possible at all reasonable $\text{V}\text{K}{}_0$ values. Implications of this result for the calculation and measurement of particle diffusion coefficients is discussed. At $\text{b?0}$, the pure diffusion approximation to transport overestimates by a factor 2 or more the time to peak flux but as b becomes more negative, the additional effects of convection and energy loss become less important.     

The biogeochemical sulfur cycle in the marine boundary layer over the Northeast Pacific Ocean

The major components of the marine boundary layer biogeochemical sulfur cycle were measured simultaneously onshore and off the coast of Washington State, U.S.A. during May 1987. Seawater dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentrations on the continental shelf were strongly influenced by coastal upwelling. Concentration further offshore were typical of summer values (2.2 nmol/L) at this latitude. Although seawater DMS concentrations were high on the biologically productive continental shelf (2–12 nmol/L), this region had no measurable effect on atmospheric DMS concentrations. Atmospheric DMS concentrations (0.1–12 nmol/m³), however, were extremely dependent upon wind speed and boundary layer height. Although there appeared to be an appreciable input of non-sea-salt sulfate to the marine boundary layer from the free troposphere, the local flux of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere was sufficient to balance the remainder of the sulfur budget.     

Intraplate deformation and 3D rheological structure of the Rhine Rift System and adjacent areas of the northern Alpine foreland

The lithosphere of the Northern Alpine foreland has undergone a polyphase evolution during which interacting stress-induced intraplate deformation and upper mantle thermal perturbations controlled folding of the thermally weakened lithosphere. In this paper we address relationships among deeper lithospheric processes, neotectonics and surface processes in the Northern Alpine foreland with special emphasis on tectonically induced topography. We focus on lithosphere memory and neotectonics, paying special attention to the thermo-mechanical structure of the Rhine Graben System and adjacent areas of the northern Alpine foreland lithosphere. We discuss implications for mechanisms of large-scale intraplate deformation and links with surface processes and topography evolution.     

TEM study of a special grain boundary in a synthetic K-feldspar bicrystal: Manebach Twin

 A monoclinic KAlSi₃O₈ feldspar Manebach twin boundary was synthesized by diffusion bonding and examined using high-resolution transmission electron microscopy. The sharp (001) twin boundary is straight and free of strain. The boundary width is smaller than d₀₀₁. There is no rigid body shift observed at the twin boundary, and the feldspar structure is arranged symmetrically across (001). The twin boundary structure consists of bridged tetrahedral crankshafts, which are characteristic of the feldspar lattice. The grain boundary structure is in good agreement with the geometrical model of Taylor et al. (1934). The grain boundary composition of K_1/2H_1/2AlSi₃O₈ differs from their model. Received: 13 February 2002 / Accepted: 24 December 2002 Acknowledgements We thank M. Rühle, S. Hutt, J. Mayer, A. Strecker and U. Salzberger at MPI, Stuttgart, for their support and valuable advice in preparing TEM sections of bicrystals.