Prediction of depth‐integrated fluxes of suspended sediment in the Amazon River: particle aggregation as a complicating factor

Large rivers have been previously shown to be vertically heterogeneous in terms of suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration, as a result of sorting of suspended solids. Therefore, the spatial distribution of suspended sediments within the river section has to be known to assess the riverine sedimentary flux. Numerous studies have focused on the vertical distribution of SPM in a river channel from a theoretical or experimental perspective, but only a few were conducted so far on very large rivers. Moreover, a technique for the prediction of depth‐integrated suspended sediment fluxes in very large rivers based on sediment transport dynamics has not yet been proposed. We sampled river water along depth following several vertical profiles, at four locations on the Amazon River and its main tributaries and at two distinct water stages. Depending on the vertical profile, a one‐ to fivefold increase in SPM concentration is observed from river channel surface to bottom, which has a significant impact on the ‘depth‐averaged’ SPM concentration. For each cross section, a so‐called Rouse profile quantitatively accounts for the trend of SPM concentration increase with depth, and a representative Rouse number can be measured for each cross section. However, the prediction of this Rouse number would require the knowledge of the settling velocity of particles, which is dependent on the state of aggregation affecting particles within the river. We demonstrate that in the Amazon River, particle aggregation significantly influences the Rouse number and renders its determination impossible from grain‐size distribution data obtained in the lab. However, in each cross section, the Rouse profile obtained from the fit of the data can serve as a basis to model, at first order, the SPM concentration at any position in the river cross section. This approach, combined with acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) water velocity transects, allows us to accurately estimate the depth‐integrated instantaneous sediment flux. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A 13‐year record of erosion on badland sites in the Karoo,South Africa

Land degradation in South Africa has been of concern for more than 100 years with both climate change and inappropriate land management (overgrazing) being proposed as primary drivers. However, there are few quantitative studies of degradation and, in particular, few of erosion by water. Badlands, taken here to be the landform which results from extreme erosion, have been notably neglected. We report on 13 consecutive years of erosion pin measurements of badland erosion on 10 study sites in the Sneeuberg uplands of the eastern Karoo in South Africa. The study sites are on Holocene colluvium which mantles footslopes. They have been subject to overgrazing for at least 100 years, c. 1850–1950. Currently they are lightly grazed by sheep. The area receives about 500 mm rainfall per year. The sites are remote, with only informal, farmer‐operated, daily raingauges nearby. The nearest sub‐daily raingauge is c. 55 km distant. Also we report on an analysis of the erosion pin data which focuses on establishing the origins and context of the badlands, including the relationship between study sites and adjacent valley‐bottom gully systems; compare erosion rates on our study sites with rates determined by erosion pins on other badland sites; and discuss the implications of these erosion rates for landscape development and off‐site impacts. Net erosion rates on the study sites are relatively high compared with global badland rates and range from 3.1 to 8.5 mm yr^‐1 which may be extrapolated to 53 to 145 t ha yr^‐1 (using a measured bulk density of 1.7 g cm^‐3). However, comparisons with badland sites elsewhere are difficult because of different measuring methodologies, lithologies, climate and dominant processes. Erosion rates on the study sites are strongly influenced by rainfall amounts and, in particular, by daily rainfall events which exceed ~10 mm: this is the threshold intensity at which runoff has been observed to commence on badlands. Of significance, but of lesser influence, is weathering, mainly by wetting and drying: this prepares bare surfaces for erosion. However, questions remain regarding the role of site characteristics, and of processes at each site, in determining between‐site differences in erosion rate. Crude extrapolation of current rates of erosion, in conjunction with depths of incision into the badlands, suggests that badland development started around 200 years ago, probably as a response to the introduction of European‐style stock farming which resulted in overgrazing. We assume, but cannot quantify, the additional influence of periods of drought and burning in the erosional history of the area. Intermittent connection of these badlands to valley‐bottom gullies and therefore to small farm dams and ultimately to large water storage reservoirs increases their impact on local water resources. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Component correlations in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation

This paper addresses correlations between multiple components in structure‐specific seismic loss estimation. To date, the consideration of such correlations has been limited by methodological tractability, increased computational demand, and a paucity of data for their computation. The effect of component correlations, which arises in various forms, is however a significant factor affecting the results of structure‐specific seismic loss estimation and therefore it is prudent that adequate consideration be given to their effect. This paper provides the details of a tractable and computationally efficient seismic loss estimation methodology in which correlations can be considered. Methods to determine the necessary correlations are discussed, particularly those that can be used in the absence of sufficient empirical data, for which values are suggested based on the judgement. The effects of various assumptions regarding correlations are illustrated via application to a case‐study office structure. It is observed that certain correlation assumptions can lead to errors in excess of 50% in the lognormal standard deviation in the loss given intensity and loss hazard relationships, while full consideration of partial correlations is 50 times more computationally expensive than other assumptions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical prediction of heavy rain in South Korea

1. Introduction In recent decades, extreme weather events seem to be growing in frequency and risk due to water-related disasters. According to the World Meteorological Or- ganization report (ISDR and WMO, 2004) on World Water Day, 22 March 2004, the economic losses caused by water-related disasters, including floods, droughts and tropical cyclones, are on an increasing trend as follows: the yearly mean in the 1970s was about 131 billion US dollars, 204 billion dollars in the 1980s, and …     

南极拉斯曼丘陵地区大地测量控制网

南极拉斯曼丘陵地区大地测量控制网的建立与施测前后共历经４年方始完成，总控制面积约１７７．６平方公里。本文主要讨论了该网分区布设情况及总体平差的原理与方法，并对成果进行了统计分析。经过整体平差的结果可以满足１：１００００测图的需要。该网也是我国东南极中山站地区的基础大地控制网     

Evaluation of Hydraulic Properties of Aquitards Using Earthquake‐Triggered Groundwater Variation

The hydraulic properties of aquitards are not easily obtained because monitoring wells are usually installed in aquifers for groundwater resources management. Earthquake‐induced crust stress (strain) triggers groundwater level variations over a short period of time in a large area. These groundwater anomalies can be used to investigate aquifer systems. This study uses a poroelastic model to fit the postseismic variations of groundwater level triggered by the Chi‐Chi earthquake to evaluate the hydraulic properties of aquitards in the Jhoushuei River alluvial fan (JRAF), Taiwan. Six of the adopted eight wells with depths of 70 to 130 m showed good agreement with the recovery theory. The mean hydraulic conductivities (K) of the aquifers for the eight wells are 1.62 × 10^?4 to 9.06 × 10^?4 m/s, and the thicknesses are 18.8 to 46.1 m. The thicknesses of the aquitards are 11.3 to 42.0 m. Under the isotropic assumption for K, the estimated values of K for the aquitards are 3.0 × 10^?8 to 2.1 × 10^?6 m/s, corresponding to a silty medium. The results match the values obtained for the geological material of the drilling core and those reported in previous studies. The estimated values were combined with those given in previous studies to determine the distribution of K in the first two aquitards in the JRAF. The distribution patterns of the aquitards reflect the sedimentary environments and fit the geological material. The proposed technique can be used to evaluate the K value of aquitards using inverse methods. The inversion results can be used in hydrogeological analyses, contaminant modeling, and subsidence evaluation.     

Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Glacier development and topographic context

This paper analyses the topographic context of the remaining glaciated areas in the Maladeta Massif (Central Spanish Pyrenees). These ice‐covered surfaces have been incorporated into a geographic information system (GIS) in an attempt at correlating the presence of ice with a range of topographic variables obtained from a digital elevation model. The use of generalized additive models and binary regression tree models enabled us (i) to quantify the spatial variability in the distribution of glaciers attributable to characteristics of the local terrain, (ii) to investigate the interaction between the variables that account for the ice cover distribution and (iii) to map the probability of glacier development. Our results show that although the development of glaciers depends on regional climate conditions, the topographic context is of paramount importance in determining the location, extent, shape and recent evolution of each glacial body. Thus, the joint effect of altitude, exposure to incoming solar radiation, slope and mean curvature is able to explain more than 70 per cent of the observed variance. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Complex multiple cosmogenic nuclide concentration and histories in the arid Rio Lluta catchment,northern Chile

Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) concentrations measured in river sediments can be used to estimate catchment‐wide denudation rates. By investigating multiple TCN the steadiness of sediment generation, transport and depositional processes can be tested. Measurements of ¹⁰Be, ²¹Ne and ²⁶Al from the hyper‐ to semi‐arid Rio Lluta catchment, northern Chile, yield average single denudation rates ranging from 12 to 75 m Myr^–1 throughout the catchment. Paired nuclide analysis reveals complex exposure histories for most of the samples and thus the single nuclide estimates do not exclusively represent catchment‐wide denudation rates. The lower range of single nuclide denudation rates (12–17 m Myr^–1), established with the noble gas ²¹Ne, is in accordance with palaeodenudation rates derived from ²¹Ne/¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al/¹⁰Be ratio analysis. Since this denudation rate range is measured throughout the system, it is suggested that a headwater signal is transported downstream but modulated by a complex admixture of sediment that has been stored and buried at proximal hillslope or terrace deposits, which are released during high discharge events. That is best evidenced by the stable nuclide ²¹Ne, which preserves the nuclide concentration even during storage intervals. The catchment‐wide single ²¹Ne denudation rates and the palaeodenuation rates contrast with previous TCN‐derived erosion rates from bedrock exposures at hillslope interfluves by being at least one order of magnitude higher, especially in the lower river course. These results support earlier studies that identified a coupling of erosional processes in the Western Cordillera contrasting with decoupled processes in the Western Escarpment and in the Coastal Cordillera. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.