Understanding the Past and Present and Predicting the Future: Farmers’ Use of Multiple Nutrient Best Management Practices in the Upper Midwest

Understanding what drives farmers’ voluntary adoption of nutrient and soil best management practices has important consequences for many environmental outcomes including water quality. We build on research revealing the need for simultaneous use of multiple nitrogen best management practices to achieve water quality improvement goals. Using social, economic and attitudinal variables we predict the use of multiple nitrogen best management practices at three time points: current use (2013), past use (before 2013), and likelihood of use on their largest field in the next three years. Our empirical analysis uses structural equation modeling with latent variables and 2014 farmer survey data from three Midwestern US states. Most farmers in our sample used at least one of the six best management practices. Our results reveal that farmers’ attitudes, use of information sources, and conservation program participation affect the number of nitrogen best management practices concurrently in use at multiple time points.     

Spatiotemporal patterns of burned areas,fire drivers,and fire probability across the equatorial Andes

Field-based fire studies in the equatorial Andes indicate that fires are strongly associated with biophysical and anthropogenic variables. However, fire controls and fire regimes at the regional scale remain undocumented. Therefore, this paper describes spatial and temporal burned-area patterns, identifies biophysical and anthropogenic fire drivers, and quantifies fire probability across 6° of latitude and 3° of longitude in the equatorial Andes. The spatial and temporal burned-area analysis was carried out based on 18 years(2001-2018) of the MCD64 A1 MODIS burned-area product. Climate, topography, vegetation, and anthropogenic variables were integrated in a logistic regression model to identify the significance of explanatory variables and determine fire occurrence probability. A total of 5779 fire events were registered during the 18 years of this study, located primarily along the western cordillera of the Andes and spreading from North to South. Eighty-eight percent of these fires took place within two fire hotspots located in the northwestern and southwestern corners of the study area. Ninety-nine percent occurred during the second part of the year, between June and December. The largest density of fires was primarily located on herbaceous vegetation and shrublands. Results show that mean monthly temperature, precipitation and NDVI during the prefire season, the location of land cover classes such as forest and agriculture, distance to roads and urban areas, slope, and aspect were the most important determinants of spatial and temporal fire distribution. The logistic regression model achieved a good accuracy in predicting fire probability(80%). Probability was higher in the southwestern and northern corners of the study area, and lower towards the north in the western and eastern piedmonts of the Andes. This analysis contributes to the understanding of fires in mountains within the tropics. The results here presented have the potential to contribute to fire management and control in the region.     

Climatic regimes and the recruitment rate of anchoveta, Engraulis ringens, off Peru

The recruitment rate of Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens, was studied to test the hypothesis that long-term environmental variation (regime shifts) had a significant impact on density-dependent processes governing the anchovy recruitment during the period 1963–2004. On the basis of previous defined regimes and turning points for the Humboldt Current System, we identified two groups of years for increased recruitment of anchoveta (1963–1971 and 1986–2004), and one unfavorable period (1972–1985). A common intercept and significantly different slopes were found when the recruitment rate was plotted as a function of the spawning stock biomass during those groups of years, suggesting that density-dependent effects on recruitment were affected during different climate regimes. The favorable (unfavorable) regime was characterized by higher (lower) zooplankton volumes, and with a higher frequency of colder (warmer) waters. Dome-shaped relationships between recruitment rate, spawning stock biomass and SST, were detected with a Generalized Additive Model for the favorable regime. Thus, recruitment could be explained by non-linear effects of environmental variables. Ultimately, climatic regimes are affecting the density-dependent effects on recruitment of anchoveta and the mechanisms involved may be associated with changes in the carrying capacity of the spawning habitat of anchoveta off Peru, which in turn are related with the effects of cold and warm regimes.     

Delay coordinates: a sensitive indicator of nonlinear dynamics in single charged particle motion in magnetic reversals

The delay coordinate technique is examined as an indicator of the regime of particle dynamics for the system of single charged particle motion in magnetic reversals. Examples of numerically integrated trajectories in both static (zero electric field) and time dependent (corresponding nonzero induction electric field) simple models for magnetic reversals are considered. In the static case, the dynamics can in principle be directly classified by constructing Poincaré surfaces of section; here we demonstrate that whilst the Poincaré surface contains the relevant information to classify the dynamics, the corresponding delay coordinate plot can provide a far more sensitive indication of the onset of nonregular behaviour. In the case of nonperiodic time dependence considered here Poincaré plots cannot in general be constructed directly. Nevertheless, delay coordinate plots can still reveal details of the phase space portrait of the system, and here are shown to indicate whether segments of stochastic motion exist in a given trajectory. It is anticipated that the delay coordinate plot technique as realized here will be a valuable tool in characterizing the behaviour in large numbers of trajectories that are evolved in time-dependent systems, thereby giving us insight into the evolution of the distribution function as a whole, either in prescribed fields or in self-consistent numerical simulations.     

Dynamic of the freshwater–saltwater interface in a karstic aquifer under extraordinary recharge action: the Merida Yucatan case study

A hydraulic analysis of the interface between freshwater–saltwater behavior was done in the Merida Yucatan zone, two machines that constantly register the groundwater levels were installed, and three electric conductivity logs were taken from wells. When comparing the measured results with the ones obtained using theoretical equations developed to calculate the freshwater–saltwater interface position, it was proved that in some cases these equations can be applied, and in others not. Two effects that rule the behavior of karst aquifers in extraordinary conditions were found.     

Complexity in astroplasmas

Ideas of complexity theory – including self-organized criticality – are being applied to the study of turbulence and astroplasmas in the solar system. An RAS MIST meeting in London brought together researchers from different disciplines to compare established paradigms with more recent ideas. Sandra Chapman , Mervyn Freeman and Sean Oughton report.     

Shellfish as the impetus for embayment management

Concern about declining stocks of municipally managed shellfish species in Orleans, Massachusetts, led to several shellfish enhancement programs. Projects included bottom and raft culture of hatchery-raised seed, hatchery and upweller techniques, transplants of seed and adult shellfish, and other management options. However, deterioration of water quality and habitat prompted the town to initiate a multifaceted program to address the issues causing environmental degradation. A water-quality task force, appointed to determine solutions to the problems, recommended changes in land-use practices. A drainage remediation program was undertaken at five sites, resulting in the reopening of a viable shellfish area for the first time in 12 yr. Issues concerning nutrient enrichment, groundwater flow and depth, flushing characteristics of the embayments, proliferation of private docks and piers in the public tidelands, effect of barrier beach dynamics including erosion control measures, and the number of users and diversity of their activies employed on the waters themselves will be addressed in current municipal planning initiatives.     

Halogen-bearing minerals in syenites and high-grade marbles of Dronning Maud Land,Antarctica: monitors of fluid compositional changes during late-magmatic fluid-rock interaction processes

Meta-sedimentary rocks including marbles and calcsilicates in Central Dronning Maud Land (CDML) in East Antarctica experienced a Pan-African granulite facies metamorphism with peak metamorphic conditions around 830 ± 20 °C at 6.8 ± 0.5 kbar which was accompanied by the post-kinematic intrusion of huge amounts of syenitic (charnockitic) magmas at 4.5 ± 0.7 kbar. The marbles and calcsilicates may represent meta-evaporites as indicated by the occurrence of metamorphic gypsum/anhydrite and Cl-rich scapolite that formed in the presence of saline fluids with X _NaCl in the range 0.15–0.27. The marbles and calcsilicates bear biotite, tremolite and/or hornblende and humite group minerals (clinohumite, chondrodite and humite) which are inferred to have crystallized at about 650 °C and 4.5 kbar. The syenitic intrusives contain late-magmatic biotite and amphibole (formed between 750 and 800 °C) as well as relictic magmatic fayalite, orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene. Two syenite and two calcsilicate samples contain fluorite. Corona textures in the marbles and calcsilicates suggest very low fluid-rock ratios during the formation of the retrograde (650 °C) assemblages. Biotite in all but two syenite samples crystallized at log(f _{H 2 O}/f _HF) ratios of 2.9 ± 0.4, while in the calcsilicates, both biotite and humite group minerals indicate generally higher log(f _{H 2 O}/f _HF) values of up to 5.2. A few samples, though, overlap with the syenite values. Log(f _{H 2 O}/f _HCl) derived from biotite covers the range 0.5–2.6 in all rock types. Within a single sample, the calculated values for both parameters vary typically by 0.1 to 0.8 log units. Water and halogen acid fugacities calculated from biotite-olivine/orthopyroxene-feldspar-quartz equilibria and the above fugacity ratios are 1510–2790 bars for H₂O, 1.3–5.3 bars for HF and 7–600 bars for HCl. The results are interpreted to reflect the reaction of relatively homogeneous magmatic fluids [in terms of log(f _{H 2 O} /f _HF)] derived from the late-magmatic stages of the syenites with both earlier crystallized, still hotter parts of the syenites and with adjacent country rocks during down-temperature fluid flow. Fluorine is successively removed from the fluid and incorporated into F-bearing minerals (close to the syenite into metamorphic fluorite). In the course of this process log(f _{H 2 O} /f _HF) increases significantly. Chlorine preferably partitions into the fluid and hence log(f _{H 2 O} /f _HCl) does not change markedly during fluid-rock interaction. Received: 28 November 1997 / Accepted: 27 April 1998     

Mortality by cause of death in Colombia: a local analysis using spatial econometrics

Journal of Geographical Systems - Colombia is undergoing major changes in mortality patterns. National- and department-level cause-specific analyses have previously been carried out, but very...     

Building a 3D geomodel for water resources management: case study in the Regional Park of the lower courses of Manzanares and Jarama Rivers (Madrid, Spain)

Water resources management of protected sites requires a powerful tool to analyze the process and changes that are occurring in the environment. This paper describes a 3D geomodel design of the Jarama River Detrital Aquifer located in Madrid (Spain). That hydrogeological unit is included in the “Parque Regional de los Cursos Bajos de los Ríos Manzanares y Jarama” (Regional Park of the Lower Courses of Manzanares and Jarama Rivers). The goal of this work is to define a method by which a three-dimensional (3D) model can be created with hydrogeologic geometry real of main aquifer, to accomplish an adequate management of the groundwater resources. All data used in this study were integrated in a geographic database: geological and hydrogeological information, geological map (1:25,000), eleven cross-sections, piezometric maps and a digital elevation model. The constructed 3D model of the Jarama Aquifer shows geometric features and spatial distribution and variations of geologic units. Thus, the 3D model allows the assessment of volumes of each unit, the depth and thickness variations of the main aquifer, and the spatial and temporal variations of water tables. From the 3D model, the most suitable areas (in terms of groundwater protection) for managed recharge and mining works have been identified.