Rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide occurrence at regional scale

This paper concerns a regional scale warning system for landslides that relies on a decisional algorithm based on the comparison between rainfall recordings and statistically defined thresholds. The latter were based on the total amount of rainfall, which was cumulated considering different time intervals: 1-, 2- and 3-day cumulates took into account the critical rainfall influencing shallow movements, whilst a variable time interval cumulate (up to 240 days) was used to consider the triggering of deep-seated landslides in low permeability terrains. A prototypal version of the model was initially set up to define statistical thresholds. Then, thresholds were calibrated using a database of past georegistered and dated landslides. A validation procedure showed that the calibration highly improves the results and therefore the model was integrated in the regional warning system of Emilia Romagna (Italy) for civil protection purposes. The proposed methodology could be easily implemented in other similar regions and countries where a sufficiently organised meteorological network is present.     

A scale‐invariant property of the water retention curve in weakly heterogeneous vadose zones

Abrupt changes of hydraulic properties in a vadose zone are modelled within a stochastic framework, which regards the saturated conductivity and parameters related to the distribution of soil pores as stationary, log‐normally distributed, random space functions. As a consequence, flow variables become random fields, and we aim at deriving an effective Richards equation. To obtain the latter, we adopt a perturbation expansion truncated at the first order (weakly heterogeneous media), which leads to the effective hydraulic conductivity and water retention curves. Overall, the effective properties are scale dependent. However, within the proposed framework, we demonstrate that the inflection point of the laboratory scale retention curve is not affected by the heterogeneity of the vadose zone. Finally, to illustrate the quantitative implications of our results, we consider a monitoring experiment at field scale, and we show how our approach leads to an effective water retention curve, which differs significantly from that which would be obtained without accounting for the above scale‐invariance property.     

Updating EWS rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides

In this paper, the updating of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning systems (EWSs) is presented. Rainfall thresholds are widely used in regional-scale landslide EWSs, but the efficiency of those systems can decrease during the time, so a periodically updating should be required to keep their functionality. The updating of 12 of the 25 thresholds used in the EWS of Tuscany region (central Italy) is presented, and a comparison between performances of new and previous thresholds has been made to highlight the need of their periodical update. The updating has been carried out by collecting ca. 1200 new landslide reports (from 2010 to March 2013) and their respective rainfall data, collected by 332 rain gauges. The comparison has been made by the use of several statistical indexes and showed a marked increasing in the performances of the new thresholds with respect to previous ones.     

Spatial dependence of the hydraulic conductivity in a well‐type configuration at the mesoscale

The spatial distribution of the hydraulic conductivity κ is modelled by a power law, and we present a methodological approach to quantify the exponent (crowding index) of such a law as detected within a well‐type flow configuration. Based upon the outcome of several pumping tests conducted into a caisson (mesoscale), we identify the crowding index as function of the volumetric flow rate. Hence, we develop a simple (although approximated) procedure to assess whether the spatial distribution of κ can be characterized by a power law. We demonstrate that, even at the mesoscale, the conductivity κ can not be regarded as a formation's property (nonlocality), in agreement with the recent developments on the theory of flows into radial configurations.     

A fractal analysis of the water retention curve

The dependence of the soil water content ? upon the matric potential ψ is studied within a fractal approach that regards the water retention curve as a sequence of well defined fractal regimes. Each of such regimes accounts for a given functional dependence ?≡?(ψ), which in turn is characterized by a fractal dimension. The difference between the double fractal (observed into sandy soils) and multifractal (observed into clay soils) regime is explained by recalling that, for a sandy soil, the transition from saturated to dry conditions is driven by a steep reduction of ψ. To the contrary, for a clay (where the change from the highest water contents to the smallest ones is characterized by a large range of the matric potential), the multifractal behaviour is observed. These results are also confirmed by the analysis of experimental data. In particular, we show that the intermediate regime, generally accounting for the fractal multimodality, is due to the sandy nature of the soil at stake, practically immaterial. Finally, we demonstrate that our model can be also regarded as the straightforward generalization of that of Millán and González‐Posada ( 2005 ).     

Rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia

In Slovenia, rainfall-induced landslides lead to considerable damages, even causing human losses. In order to reduce the impact of this kind of landslide, several researchers analyzed rainfall-induced landslides in this country, but to date, no rainfall thresholds have been developed for a landslide warning system at national scale. In this paper, the definition of rainfall thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Slovenia is presented. The thresholds have been calculated by collecting approximately 900 landslide data and the relative rainfall amounts, which have been collected from 41 rain gauges. To define the thresholds, an existing procedure characterized by a high degree of objectiveness has been used. This approach is based on a software that was developed for a test site with very different characteristics (Tuscany, central Italy). At first, a single national threshold has been defined; subsequently, the country was divided into four zones, on the basis of the major river basins. The effectiveness of the thresholds has been verified by the use of several statistical parameters and it resulted in quite good performances, even if with some uncertainties, probably due to the quality of the available data. Besides the setting of a threshold system, usable for civil protection purposes at national scale, an additional outcome of this work was the possibility of applying, with good results, a methodology defined for another region, therefore testing its degree of exportability in different settings.     

引发意大利托斯卡纳区滑坡的区域降水阈值体系的定义——统计与环境分析(英文)

The aim of this work is the determination of regional-scale rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in the Tuscany Region(Italy).The critical rainfall events related to the occurrence of 593 past landslides were characterized in terms of duration(D) and intensity(I).I and D values were plotted in a log-log diagram and a lower boundary was clearly noticeable:it was interpreted as a threshold representing the rainfall conditions associated to landsliding.That was also confirmed by a comparison with many literature thresholds,but at the same time it was clear that a similar threshold would be affected by a too large approximation to be effectively used for a regional warning system.Therefore,further analyses were performed differentiating the events on the basis of seasonality,magnitude,location,land use and lithology.None of these criteria led to discriminate among all the events different groups to be characterized by a specific and more effective threshold.This outcome could be interpreted as the demonstration that at regional scale the best results are obtained by the simplest ap-proach,in our case an empirical black box model which accounts only for two rainfall pa-rameters(I and D).So a set of thresholds could be conveniently defined using a statistical approach:four thresholds corresponding to four severity levels were defined by means of the prediction interval technique and we developed a prototype warning system based on rainfall recordings or weather forecasts.