Model insight into glacial–interglacial paleodust records

We present a new method of analyzing model results to help identify the sensitivity of the location of different paleodust records to estimate local to regional scale variability of dust and climate variables. We use model simulations of global dust distribution from the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, current, and predicted future. The dust model has been previously shown to match available observational data for the current and last glacial maximum climate. Here, the model is compared to available source provenance data and is shown to agree with these limited observations. Using correlations and slopes across different time periods, the modeled relationships between deposition at specific observational sites and regional deposition and dustiness are shown. In addition, we evaluate the modeled relative slope of these cores to determine the location of paleodust sites that are especially easy to interpret as regional indicators of dustiness. Model predictions suggest that deposition in Antarctic ice cores is usually better than dust concentration to capture regional deposition and dustiness variability over glacial–interglacial time periods, in agreement with ice core interpretations. For Greenland, the model predicts a possible shift from dominantly wet deposition under modern conditions to dominantly dry deposition during glacial climate conditions indicating that deposition may be better suited to capture dustiness variability under LGM conditions in Greenland. The model also identifies specific regions that are not well covered by observations for glacial/interglacial or anthropocene dust variability. In addition, we evaluate the modeled relative slope of the location of these cores to determine regions that would provide ideal localities for pursuing records that would provide easily interpretable paleo-proxy records of regional dustiness.     

Alpine climate during the Holocene: a comparison between records of glaciers,lake sediments and solar activity

The European Alps are very sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. Recent improvements in Alpine glacier length records and climate reconstructions from annually laminated sediments of Alpine Lake Silvaplana give the opportunity to investigate the relationship between these two data sets of Alpine climate. Two different time frames are considered: the last 500–1000 years as well as the last 7400 years. First, we found good agreement between the two different climate archives during the past millennium: mass accumulation rates and biogenic silica concentration are largely in phase with the glacier length changes of Mer de Glace and Unterer Grindelwaldgletscher, and with the records of glacier length of Grosser Aletschgletscher and Gornergletscher. Secondly, the records are compared with temporally highly resolved data of solar activity. The Sun has had a major impact on the Alpine climate variations in the long term, i.e. several centuries to millennia. Solar activity varies with the Hallstatt periodicity of about 2000 years. Hallstatt minima are identified around 500, 2500 and 5000 a. Around these times grand solar minima (such as the Maunder Minimum) occurred in clusters coinciding with colder Alpine climate expressed by glacier advances. During the Hallstatt maxima around 0, 2000 and 4500 a, the Alpine glaciers generally retreated, indicating a warmer climate. This is supported by archaeological findings at Schnidejoch, a transalpine pass in Switzerland that was only accessible when glaciers had retreated. On shorter timescales, however, the influence of the Sun cannot be as easily detected in Alpine climate change, indicating that in addition to solar forcing, volcanic influence and internal climate variations have played an important role. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of pantellerite-trachyte-phonolite volcanoes by fractional crystallization of basanite magma in a continental rift setting,Marie Byrd Land,Antarctica

The Marie Byrd Land province includes 18 large (up to 1,800 km³) central volcanoes distributed across an active volcano-tectonic dome. The typical volcano structure consists of a basal 1,000–5,000 m of basanite surmounted by trachyte and subordinate intermediate rocks, plus phonolite, or pantellerite, or comendite. The volumes of felsic sections are large (~30–700 km³), but these rocks probably make up <10% of volcanic rock in the province. This paper describes pantellerite volcanoes in the Ames and Flood Ranges, which include a large and varied suite of these iron-rich, silica-poor rhyolites. Isotopic and trace element data, maintenance of isotopic equilibrium throughout the basalt-felsic range, and the results of modeling, all exclude significant crustal contamination and point to fractional crystallization as the process that controls magmatic evolution. The most unusual feature of these volcanoes is the apparent need to derive pantellerites from basanite, the long interval of fractionation at the base of the lithosphere and crust, involving kaersutite as the key phase in developing pantellerite, and a plumbing system that permitted coeval eruption of pantellerite and phonolite from the same edifice. Peralkalinity most likely developed in upper crustal reservoirs during the final 4–5% of magmatic history, by fractionating a high proportion of plagioclase under low pH₂O. Mantle plume activity appears to drive doming and volcanism. This, a stationary plate, and continental lithospheric structure seem to provide an optimal environment for the evolution of a diverse, large volume suite of felsic rocks by fractional crystallization.     

Application of evidential reasoning to improve the mapping of regenerating forest stands

This study confirmed the ability of the Dempster–Shafer theory (DST) and the Dezert–Smarandache (Free DSm model) theory to significantly improve the quality of maps of regenerating forest stands in southern Quebec, Canada compared to a classical Maximum Likelihood Algorithm (MLA). The proposed approach uses data fusion methods that allow the integration of remotely sensed imagery with conventional maps of ecophysiographic features. While the MLA provided an overall accuracy of 82.75%, the DST and Free DSm models had overall accuracies of 90.14% and 91.13% respectively. In addition, this study showed that the data fusion methods can model the influence of biophysical parameters (e.g., surface deposits and drainage) on the growth potential of regenerating forest stands. This study illustrates the importance of the mass function allocation for each ancillary data source. We found that a Bayesian belief configuration provided results equivalent to those obtained when representing data uncertainty. This demonstrates the difficulty in modelling uncertainty associated with each ancillary source.     

Evaluation of the regional climate model ALADIN to simulate the climate over North America in the CORDEX framework

In this study, an ensemble of four multi-year climate simulations is performed with the regional climate model ALADIN to evaluate its ability to simulate the climate over North America in the CORDEX framework. The simulations differ in their driving fields (ERA-40 or ERA-Interim) and the nudging technique (with or without large-scale nudging). The validation of the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation with observationally-based gridded data sets shows that ALADIN performs similarly to other regional climate models that are commonly used over North America. Large-scale nudging improves the temporal correlation of the atmospheric circulation between ALADIN and its driving field, and also reduces the warm and dry summer biases in central North America. The differences between the simulations driven with different reanalyses are small and are likely related to the regional climate model’s induced internal variability. In general, the impact of different driving fields on ALADIN is smaller than that of large-scale nudging. The analysis of the multi-year simulations over the prairie and the east taiga indicates that the ALADIN 2-m temperature and precipitation interannual variability is similar or larger than that observed. Finally, a comparison of the simulations with observations for the summer 1993 shows that ALADIN underestimates the flood in central North America mainly due to its systematic dry bias in this region. Overall, the results indicate that ALADIN can produce a valuable contribution to CORDEX over North America.     

Consistent scale-dependency of future increases in hourly extreme precipitation in two convection-permitting climate models

Climate Dynamics - Convection-permitting models (CPMs) have been proven successful in simulating extreme precipitation statistics. However, when such models are used to study climate change,...     

Parent body histories recorded in Rumuruti chondrite sulfides: Implications for the onset of oxidized,sulfur-rich core formation

Models of planetary core formation beginning with melting of Fe,Ni metal and troilite are not readily applicable to oxidized and sulfur-rich chondrites containing only trace quantities of metal. Cores formed in these bodies must be dominated by sulfides. Siderophile trace elements used to model metallic core formation could be used to model oxidized, sulfide-dominated core formation and identify related meteorites if their trace element systematics can be quantified. Insufficient information exists regarding the behavior of these core-forming elements among sulfides during metamorphism prior to anatexis. Major, minor, and trace element concentrations of sulfides are reported in this study for petrologic type 3–6 R chondrite materials. Sulfide-dominated core-forming components in such oxidized chondrites (ƒO₂ ≥ iron-wüstite) follow metamorphic evolutionary pathways that are distinct from reduced, metal-bearing counterparts. Most siderophile trace elements partition into pentlandite at approximately 10× chondritic abundances, but Pt, W, Mo, Ga, and Ge are depleted by 1–2 orders of magnitude relative to siderophile elements with similar volatilities. The distribution of siderophile elements is further altered during hydrothermal alteration as pyrrhotite oxidizes to form magnetite. Oxidized, sulfide-dominated core formation differs from metallic core formation models both physically and geochemically. Incongruent melting of pentlandite at 865°C generates melts capable of migrating along solid silicate grains, which can segregate to form a Ni,S-rich core at lower temperatures compared to reduced differentiated parent bodies and with distinct siderophile interelement proportions.     

An economic approach to adaptation: illustrations from Europe

Policy makers are still struggling to find a rational and effective way to handle adaptation to climate change. This paper discusses a more strategic, economic approach to public adaptation and compares it with adaptation practice in Europe. An economic approach to adaptation involves setting priorities, both spatially (where to adapt) and inter-temporally (when to adapt). The paper reviews what we know about Europe’s geographic adaptation priorities. On inter-temporal priorities, it recommends fast-tracking two types of action: Win-win measures that yield an immediate return, such as water efficiency, and strategic decisions on infrastructure and spatial planning that have long-term consequences for Europe’s vulnerability profile. An economic approach to adaptation involves careful project design to ensure adaptation measures are cost-effective and flexible in the light of climate uncertainty (how to adapt). The final element of an economic approach to adaptation is the division of labour between the state and private actors (who should adapt). The paper argues that the traditional functions of the state—the provision of public goods, creation of an enabling environment and protection of the vulnerable—also apply to adaptation.     

A new approach to the Late Miocene-Early Pliocene forms of the genus Apocricetus. Apocricetus alberti (Rodentia,Mammalia) from Venta del Moro (Cabriel Basin,Spain)

The species of the genus Apocricetus are considered to form the phyletic lineage A. aff. plinii (MN11)–A. plinii–A. alberti–A. barrierei–A. angustidens (MN16). Along this lineage, gradual morphological and biometrical changes occur, but not all the species are represented by rich populations. The assemblage of Apocricetus alberti from Venta del Moro is by far the most abundant collection of this species. This population shows a great morphological variability in some characters like the morphology of the anteroconid and the anterolophulids in m1 and the shape of the anterolophule in M1, with morphotypes that resemble both older and younger populations of Apocricetus. Along the phyletic lineage of Apocricetus, a change in the shape of m3 occurs, from predominantly subtriangular forms in the oldest populations to predominantly subrectangular in the youngest. To quantify this feature we use the posterior width of the molar and the anterior width/posterior width ratio, proposing five morphological categories, from extremely triangular to subrectangular.     

The new accelerograph network for Santa Fe De Bogota, Colombia and implications for microzonation

The new accelerographic network of Santa Fe de Bogotá is composed of 29 three-component stations with sensors at the surface and three additional six-component borehole stations with three sensors at the surface and three at depth (115, 126 and 184 m). In total, 32 stations have been operative in the metropolitan area of Bogotá since 1999. During this period of time, a significant number of weak motion are recorded and used for a preliminary analysis of local site effects. Using the SH-wave response spectra we verify the behavior of the different seismic zones proposed by the previous microzonation study of the city. A comparison between normalized SH-wave response spectra and the normalized design spectra for each zone clearly depicts that parts of the design spectra should be revised, as well as the boundaries between different zones may require some changes. The spectral amplification levels reach up to a factor of 5. The predominant periods obtained by the amplification spectra in different stations in the city, show variability from 0.3 to 3.0 s. A comparison is also made between the predominant periods obtained using H/V spectral ratios of microtremors and those using weak motion. In general, microtremors tend to predict slightly lower values of dominant periods than those calculated by the weak motion spectra. However, there is a general correlation between the two data sets. Using the data recorded by one of the borehole station, an equivalent linear seismic response analysis was conducted. The modeled and recorded response spectra show similarities in period peaks, however, the modeled soil amplification is underestimated for periods less than 0.8 s. Since the available record is weak motion which represents mostly the linear response of the soils, further analysis is required.