Interannual variability of deep convection in the Northwestern Mediterranean simulated with a coupled AORCM

A hindcast experiment of the Mediterranean present-day climate is performed using a fully-coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Regional Climate Model (AORCM) for the Mediterranean basin. The new model, called LMDz-NEMO-Med, is composed of LMDz4-regional as atmospheric component and of NEMOMED8 as oceanic component. This AORCM equilibrates freely, without any flux adjustment, neither in fresh water nor in heat. At its atmospheric lateral boundary conditions, it is driven by ERA-40 data from 1958 to 2001, after a spin-up of 40 years in coupled configuration. The model performance is assessed and compared with available observational datasets. The model skill in reproducing mean state and inter-annual variability of main atmospheric and oceanic surface fields is in line with that of state-of-the-art AORCMs. Considering the ocean behaviour, the inter-annual variations of the basin-scale heat content are in very good agreement with the observations. The model results concerning salt content could not be adequately validated. High inter-annual variability of deep convection in the Gulf of Lion is simulated, with 53 % of convective winters, representative of the present climate state. The role of different factors influencing the deep convection and its inter-annual variability is examined, including dynamic and hydrostatic ocean preconditioning and atmospheric surface forcing. A conceptual framework is outlined and validated in linking the occurrence of deep convection to the efficiency of the integrated surface buoyancy fluxes along the winter season to mix the initially stratified averaged water column down to the convective threshold depth. This simple framework (based only on 2 independent variables) is able to explain 60 % (resp. 69 %) of inter-annual variability of the deep water formation rate (resp. maximum mixed layer depth) for the West Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) formation process.     

From Small-Scale Dynamo to Isotropic MHD Turbulence

We consider the problem of incompressible, forced, nonhelical, homogeneous, isotropic MHD turbulence with no mean magnetic field. This problem is essentially different from the case with externally imposed uniform mean field. There is no scale-by-scale equipartition between magnetic and kinetic energies as would be the case for the Alfvén-wave turbulence. The isotropic MHD turbulence is the end state of the turbulent dynamo which generates folded fields with small-scale direction reversals. We propose that the statistics seen in numerical simulations of isotropic MHD turbulence could be explained as a superposition of these folded fields and Alfvén-like waves that propagate along the folds.     

The Very Early Universe might not have been Radiation-Dominated

The equation of state of the very early Universe and the formula for the radius, are here evaluated. It is shown that the very early classical Universe might not be radiation-dominated, although we do not exclude the existence of the radiation dominated phase for the early, but not the very early Universe. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Diffusion of a multi-component plasma

Diffusion in a weakly ionized plasma composed of negative ions as well as positive ions is examined using appropriate linearized fluid equations. For initial, electrically neutral, density perturbations of the form exp(ikx) the diffusion process is characterized by electrical non-neutrality and by three stages or time scales. For equal positive and negative ion diffusion coefficients these stages are in general (1) equilibration of the electron gas so that pressure gradient and electric forces are balanced (2) ambipolar-like diffusion of all three species, and concluding with (3) free ion diffusion. The details of the process are governed by the product kλ_e (wave number times electron Debye length) and the ambient ratio of negative ion to electron number density. Numerical and analytic results for separate positive and negative diffusion coefficients show added complexity which is briefly described. These results or the more complete numerical solutions find application to the lower D region of the ionosphere.     

Regional-scale back-analysis using TRIGRS: an approach to advance landslide hazard modeling and prediction in sparse data regions

Landslides in Kerala, India, have been shown to be preceded not only by critical rainfall over a short period but also a much longer period of elevated pore pressure. Such rainfall-triggered landslides are difficult to monitor due to a lack of adequate data on the locations of failures and precipitation. Here, a method is presented using Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope stability (TRIGRS) as a tool to model the relationship between critical rainfall and antecedent pore pressure as they relate to slope stability, which can be useful for hazard assessment in sparse data regions. This is demonstrated by parameterizing the model with a combination of regional data sources, remote sensing, and temporal back-analysis based on two known failure events (June 2004 and July 2007). Ranges of possible geotechnical and hydraulic parameters were obtained from various local and regional sources, and soil thickness was modeled as a function of slope angle. Rainfall was estimated using satellite microwave radiometry data. For back-analysis, combinations of cohesion, friction angle, and water table depth were then tested in TRIGRS using trial and error until the predicted and observed failure times coincided for the two failure events. While the spatial prediction accuracy of the model is low and multiple solution sets are expected to exist, the results confirm that information regarding the critical pre-failure conditions and stability changes over time can be derived despite data-poor circumstances. Future studies can be undertaken extending this method to characterize many parameter combinations and incorporate more failure cases to develop probabilistic early-warning thresholds.     

Tile drainage causes flashy streamflow response in Ohio watersheds

Artificial subsurface (tile) drainage is used to increase trafficability and crop yield in much of the Midwest due to soils with naturally poor drainage. Tile drainage has been researched extensively at the field scale, but knowledge gaps remain on how tile drainage influences the streamflow response at the watershed scale. The purpose of this study is to analyse the effect of tile drainage on the streamflow response for 59 Ohio watersheds with varying percentages of tile drainage and explore patterns between the Western Lake Erie Bloom Severity Index to streamflow response in heavily tile-drained watersheds. Daily streamflow was downloaded from 2010 to 2019 and used to calculated mean annual peak daily runoff, mean annual runoff ratio, the percent of observations in which daily runoff exceeded mean annual runoff (T_Qmean), baseflow versus stormflow percentages, and the streamflow recession constant. Heavily-drained watersheds (>40% of watershed area) consistently reported flashier streamflow behaviour compared to watersheds with low percentages of tile drainage (<15% of watershed area) as indicated by significantly lower baseflow percentages, T_Qmean, and streamflow recession constants. The mean baseflow percent for watersheds with high percentages of tile drainage was 20.9% compared to 40.3% for watersheds with low percentages of tile drainage. These results are in contrast to similar research regionally indicating greater baseflow proportions and less flashy hydrographs (higher T_Qmean) for heavily-drained watersheds. Stormflow runoff metrics in heavily-drained watersheds were significantly positively correlated to western Lake Erie algal bloom severity. Given the recent trend in more frequent large rain events and warmer temperatures in the Midwest, increased harmful algal bloom severity will continue to be an ecological and economic problem for the region if management efforts are not addressed at the source. Management practices that reduce the streamflow response time to storm events, such as buffer strips, wetland restoration, or drainage water management, are likely to improve the aquatic health conditions of downstream communities by limiting the transport of nutrients following storm events.     

Large ice‐contact slope movements: glacial buttressing,deformation and erosion

Glaciers and slope movements may act simultaneously to erode and modify glaciated slopes. Undercutting by glaciers can destabilize slopes but the extent to which slope failure may progress prior to subsequent glacier withdrawal has not hitherto been considered. The traditional view has been that the buttressing effect of ice prevents slope movement. The problem with this view is that ice is one‐third the density of rock and flows under low applied stress. Consequently, failed slopes may move into the glacier if they exert a stress in excess of the resistance provided by the glacier. Slope movement rate depends on ice rheology and other factors influencing driving and resisting stresses. Simple viscous equations are used to investigate these variables. The equations predict that small (<125 000 m³) ice‐contact rockslides can deform ice at several mm/year, increasing to several m/year for very large (>10⁸ m³) rockslides. To test these estimates, field evidence is presented of slope movements in glaciated valleys of New Zealand; narrowing or squeezing of glaciers adjacent to unstable rock slopes is demonstrated and considered to be the result of slope movement. For one site, geomorphic mapping and slope movement monitoring data show that movement rates are of similar order of magnitude to those predicted by the viscous equations; closer agreement could be achieved with the application of modelling techniques that can more realistically model the complex slope geometries and stability factors encountered, or by obtaining additional empirical data to calibrate the models. This research implies that, while the concept of glacial debuttressing – the reduction of slope support from withdrawal of glaciers – is valid, complete debuttressing is not a prerequisite for the movement of ice‐contact rock slopes. These slope movements may contribute to the erosional processes of glaciers and the evolution of glaciated slopes in a previously unrecognized way. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of diet on the distribution of carbon isotopes in animals

The influence of diet on the distribution of carbon isotopes in animals was investigated by analyzing animals grown in the laboratory on diets of constant carbon isotopic composition.The isotopic composition of the whole body of an animal reflects the isotopic composition of its diet, but the animal is on average enriched in δ¹³C by about 1‰ relative to the diet. In three of the four cases examined, the ¹³C enrichment of the whole body relative to the diet is balanced by a ¹³C depletion of the respired CO₂. The isotopic relationships between the whole bodies of animals and their diets are similar for different species raised on the same diet and for the same species raised on different diets. However, the δ¹³C values of whole bodies of individuals of a species raised on the same diet may differ by up to 2‰. The relationship between the ¹³C/¹²C ratio of a tissue and the ¹³C/¹²C ratio of the diet depends both on the type of tissue and on the nature of the diet. Many of the isotopic relationships among the major biochemical fractions, namely the lipid, carbohydrate and protein fractions, are qualitatively preserved as diet carbon is incorporated into the animal. However, the difference between the δ¹³C values of a biochemical fraction in an animal and in its diet may be as large as 3‰. The δ¹³C values of the biochemical components collagen, chitin and the insoluble organic fraction of shells, all of which are often preserved in fossil material, are related to the isotopic composition of the diet.These results indicate that it will be possible to perform dietary analysis based on the determination of the ¹³C/¹²C ratio of animal carbon. Analysis of the total animal carbon will in most cases provide a better measure of diet than the analysis of individual tissues, biochemical fractions, or biochemical components. The limits of accuracy of this method will generally restrict its application to situations in which the diet is derived from sources with relatively large differences in their δ¹³C values, such as terrestrial vs aquatic organisms or C₃ vs C₄ plants. The method should be applicable to fossil as well as to living material.     

The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths

Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are better supported by case study evidence. Cases reviewed support the conclusion that neither population nor poverty alone constitute the sole and major underlying causes of land-cover change worldwide. Rather, peoples’ responses to economic opportunities, as mediated by institutional factors, drive land-cover changes. Opportunities and constraints for new land uses are created by local as well as national markets and policies. Global forces become the main determinants of land-use change, as they amplify or attenuate local factors.