Use of a Sodar to Improve the Forecast of Fogs and Low Clouds on Airports

A sodar was deployed at Roissy–Charles de Gaulle airport near Paris, France, in 2008 with the aim of improving the forecast of low visibility conditions there. During the winter of 2008–2009, an experiment was conducted that showed that the sodar can effectively detect and locate the top of fog layers which is signaled by a strong peak of acoustic reflectivity. The peak is generated by turbulence activity in the inversion layer that contrasts sharply with the low reflectivity recorded in the fog layer below. A specific version of the 1D-forecast model deployed at Roissy for low visibility conditions (COBEL-ISBA) was developed in which fogs’ thicknesses are initialized by the sodar measurements rather than the information derived from the down-welling IR fluxes observed on the site. It was tested on data archived during the winters of 2008–2009 and 2009–2010 and compared to the version of the model presently operational. The results show a significant improvement—dissipation times of fogs are better predicted.     

Converted‐wave beam migration with sparse sources or receivers

Gaussian beam depth migration overcomes the single‐wavefront limitation of most implementations of Kirchhoff migration and provides a cost‐effective alternative to full‐wavefield imaging methods such as reverse‐time migration. Common‐offset beam migration was originally derived to exploit symmetries available in marine towed‐streamer acquisition. However, sparse acquisition geometries, such as cross‐spread and ocean bottom, do not easily accommodate requirements for common‐offset, common‐azimuth (or common‐offset‐vector) migration. Seismic data interpolation or regularization can be used to mitigate this problem by forming well‐populated common‐offset‐vector volumes. This procedure is computationally intensive and can, in the case of converted‐wave imaging with sparse receivers, compromise the final image resolution. As an alternative, we introduce a common‐shot (or common‐receiver) beam migration implementation, which allows migration of datasets rich in azimuth, without any regularization pre‐processing required. Using analytic, synthetic, and field data examples, we demonstrate that converted‐wave imaging of ocean‐bottom‐node data benefits from this formulation, particularly in the shallow subsurface where regularization for common‐offset‐vector migration is both necessary and difficult.     

Impacts of post‐glacial rebound on landslide spatial distribution at a regional scale in northern Iceland (Skagafjörður)

In de‐glaciated areas, para‐glaciation (i.e. the conditioning of landscapes by prior glaciation) has often been considered a major predisposing factor in landslide occurrence; its consequences have been particularly well identified at a fine scale (especially on bedrock jointing). Hitherto, the relative impacts of para‐glaciation on hillslope dynamics at a regional scale had nevertheless not been quantified statistically. We examine Skagafjörður area (northern Iceland) where landslides are widespread (at least 108 were mapped in an area of c. 3000 km²). We compare the role of para‐glaciation (debuttressing, influence of post‐glacial rebound) with that of classic factors (topography, lithology, etc.) in landslide occurrence and location, using a spatial analysis based on a chi‐square test. On the one hand, the results highlight that landslides are over‐represented in areas where post‐glacial rebound was at its maximum, with a stronger concentration of landslides in the northern part of the fjord. On the other hand, the distribution of landslides did not show any clear relationship with the pattern of glacial debuttressing. Tschuprow coefficient highlights that the influence of post‐glacial rebound on landslide location is higher than the combined influence of slope gradient, curvature or geological structure. This result is supported by our initial evidence for the timing of landslides in the area: most landslides occurred during the first half of the Holocene, and a period of hillslope instability was initiated when the post‐glacial uplift was at its maximum. Finally, the mechanisms that link post‐glacial rebound and landsliding as well as the geomorphic impacts of landslides, are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Texas environmental flow standards and the hydrology-based environmental flow regime methodology

Abstract

In 2007, the Texas legislature created a program to identify environmental flow standards statewide through the coordinated efforts of scientific and stakeholder groups and rulemaking by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. To aid in this task, a Hydrology-based Environmental Flow Regime (HEFR) method was developed that combines a suite of user-customizable hydrologic statistics with an implementation framework. Following the concepts of the Natural Flow Paradigm, the methodology includes the separation of a long-term hydrograph into key flow components (e.g. subsistence, base, high-flow pulse and overbank) defined by the Texas Instream Flow Program. Seasonal, annual and inter-annual flow component statistics were then coupled with biology, water quality and geomorphology overlays, where available, and with implementation rules applied to example large-scale water supply projects to support development of environmental flow standards for use in water rights permit conditions. The HEFR methodology and resulting flow recommendations are compared to two contemporary in-stream flow studies and adopted environmental flow standards. Subsistence flows were fairly similar. Baseflows were in a similar range, but fewer than three seasonal levels have sometimes been specified in in-stream flow studies. Episodic events are quite different in terms of magnitude, frequency, duration and applicable number.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor M. Acreman

Citation Opdyke, D.R., Oborny, E.L., Vaugh, S.K., and Mayes, K.B., 2014. Texas environmental flow standards and the hydrology-based environmental flow regime methodology. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 820–830.     

Model ALADIN as regional climate model for Central and Eastern Europe

Results obtained with two versions of the Limited Area Model (LAM) ALADIN over differently sized integration domains (large, intermediate and small) in the European area are presented in order to investigate both the general model performance and the influence of domain choice on the quality of obtained results. The aim is also to illustrate the issues related to the strategy of selection of the optimal integration domain. Each of these studies has been performed with two versions of the ALADIN model: the first one is ALADIN-CLIMATE developed at CNRM/Météo-France, the second one is ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ prepared at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI). This leaves us with total of six experiments forced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 reanalysis data. The west Balkan domain covering Bulgaria is used as an evaluation region for investigation of the temporal and spatial properties of simulated precipitation and temperature fields. This region has been selected for its challenging orography making the results obtained here a valuable source for studies leading to further developments in climate modeling. It was found that size of the domain strongly affects the quality of obtained results. We have found that the largest domain reproduces the spatial characteristics of climate (such as bias) very well, but its use results in a poor representation of temporal aspects, which are however captured very well in experiments over both smaller domains. Our findings suggest that there is no optimal choice of domain size, securing the best results for both spatial and temporal evaluation.     

Rock avalanching into a landslide-dammed lake causing multiple dam failure in Las Conchas valley (NW Argentina) — evidence from surface exposure dating and stratigraphic analyses

Generally landslide dams which exist for several hundreds to thousands of years are considered as stable. We show with an example from the Argentine Andes that such dams can exist for several thousands of years but still may fail catastrophically. Multiple rock avalanches impounded two lakes with surface areas of ~8 km² and ~600 km², respectively, in Las Conchas valley, NW Argentina. Surface exposure dating (SED) by ¹⁰Be of the rock-avalanche deposits or landslide scars indicates that these landslides occurred at 15,300±2,000 yr and 13,550±900 yr. The dams were stable during a strong earthquake, as suggested by seismites within related lake sediments and by multiple coeval landslides in this region, which occurred at ~7.5 kyr. However, when a further rock-avalanche fell into the lower, smaller lake at 4,800±500 yr the dam downriver was destroyed, presumably by the resulting tsunami wave. The resulting flood also destroyed an additional rock-fall dam which had formed at ~5,630 yr ¹⁴C cal BP 30 km downriver. The new dam formed by the second rock avalanche was eroded prior to 3,630 yr ¹⁴C cal BP. This dam erosion coincides with an important climatic shift towards more humid conditions in the Central Andes. Our results show that instead of direct effects of strong seismicity on landslide dams, (1) landsliding into a landslide-dammed lake, (2) abrupt hydrological changes, and (3) climate change towards conditions related to enhanced run-off are processes which can produce failures of quasi-stable natural dams.     

Survival of the Earth and the future evolution of the Sun

The question of the survival of the planet Earth as the Sun becomes a red giant and possibly a planetary nebula depends on the maximum extent of the Sun's envelope. This study shows that if the Earth is reached by this envelope, it will be destroyed; but if it is not, it will survive. Present stellar evolution calculations imply that the Earth will be destroyed.