Modelling future lahars controlled by different volcanic eruption scenarios at Cotopaxi (Ecuador) calibrated with the massively destructive 1877 lahar

Lahars are among the most hazardous mass flow processes on earth and have caused up to 23 000 casualties in single events in the recent past. The Cotopaxi volcano, 60 km southeast of Quito, has a well-documented history of massively destructive lahars and is a hotspot for future lahars due to (i) its ~10 km² glacier cap, (ii) its 117–147-year return period of (Sub)-Plinian eruptions, and (iii) the densely populated potential inundation zones (300 000 inhabitants). Previous mechanical lahar models often do not (i) capture the steep initial lahar trajectory, (ii) reproduce multiple flow paths including bifurcation and confluence, and (iii) generate appropriate key parameters like flow speed and pressure at the base as a measure of erosion capacity. Here, we back-calculate the well-documented 1877 lahar using the RAMMS debris flow model with an implemented entrainment algorithm, covering the entire lahar path from the volcano edifice to an extent of ~70 km from the source. To evaluate the sensitivity and to constrain the model input range, we systematically explore input parameter values, especially the Voellmy–Salm friction coefficients μ and ξ. Objective selection of the most likely parameter combinations enables a realistic and robust lahar hazard representation. Detailed historic records for flow height, flow velocity, peak discharge, travel time and inundation limits match best with a very low Coulomb-type friction μ (0.0025–0.005) and a high turbulent friction ξ (1000–1400 m/s²). Finally, we apply the calibrated model to future eruption scenarios (Volcanic Explosivity Index = 2–3, 3–4, >4) at Cotopaxi and accordingly scaled lahars. For the first time, we anticipate a potential volume growth of 50–400% due to lahar erosivity on steep volcano flanks. Here we develop a generic Voellmy–Salm approach across different scales of high-magnitude lahars and show how it can be used to anticipate future syneruptive lahars.     

SPECTRAL SIGNATURE OF COUPLED FLOW IN THE REFREEZING ACTIVE LAYER,NORTHERN ALASKA

Soil temperature records obtained from the active layer above permafrost at a site in northern Alaska during autumn and winter have variance spectra inconsistent with a purely conductive heat-transfer system. Although conductive heat-transfer theory predicts that temperature fluctuations are attenuated with depth, sub-diurnal thermal variance at the 50-cm level, near the base of the active layer, exceeded that at the 10-cm level. Short segments of the temperature record were drawn from three distinct periods of soil-frost conditions: (1) at the maximum vertical development of the active layer in early autumn; (2) during frost penetration and the formation of a zero curtain in early winter; and (3) after freezeback of the active layer. The variance spectra of these time series show systematic seasonal transitions that reflect changing mechanisms of heat transfer. During the first and second periods, heat transfer by internal evaporation and condensation dominates at wavelengths in the diurnal range. The spectral traces are not strongly self-similar and the fractal dimensions indicate extreme space-filling, especially at deeper levels. Once the active layer is frozen, conductive heat transfer dominates, producing a trend toward self-similarity. Both the thermal variance and the fractal dimension decrease with depth in the frozen regime. [Key words: Alaska, active layer, coupled flow, fractal dimension, frozen ground, heat transfer, permafrost, soil freezing, spectral analysis, zero curtain.]     

A method for discovery and analysis of temporal patterns in complex event data

Pattern analysis techniques currently common within geography tend to focus either on characterizing patterns of spatial and/or temporal recurrence of a single event type (e.g., incidence of flu cases) or on comparing sequences of a limited number of event types where relationships between events are already represented in the data (e.g., movement patterns). The availability of large amounts of multivariate spatiotemporal data, however, requires new methods for pattern analysis. Here, we present a technique for finding associations among many different event types where the associations among these varying event types are not explicitly represented in the data or known in advance. This pattern discovery method, known as T-pattern analysis, was first developed within the field of psychology for the purpose of finding patterns in personal interactions. We have adapted and extended the T-pattern method to take the unique characteristics of geographic data into account and implemented it within a geovisualization toolkit for an integrated computational-geovisual environment we call STempo. To demonstrate how T-pattern analysis can be employed in geographic research for discovering patterns in complex spatiotemporal data, we describe a case study featuring events from news reports about Yemen during the Arab Spring of 2011–2012. Using supplementary data from the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone, we briefly summarize and reference a separate validation study, then evaluate the scalability of the T-pattern approach. We conclude with ideas for further extensions of the T-pattern technique to increase its utility for spatiotemporal analysis.     

Episodic dust formation by HD 192641 (WR 137) – II

We present new infrared photometry of the WC7-type Wolf–Rayet star HD 192641 (WR 137) from 1985 to 1999. These data track the cooling of the dust cloud formed in the 1982–84 dust-formation episode from 1985 to 1991, the increase of the infrared flux from 1994.5 to a new dust-formation maximum in 1997 and its subsequent fading. From these and earlier data we derive a period of 4765±50 d (13.05±0.15 yr) for the dust-formation episodes. Between dust-emission episodes, the infrared spectral energy distribution has the form of a power law, λF _λ ∝ λ ^−1.86. The rising branch of the infrared light curve (1994–97) differs in form from that of the episodic dust-maker WR 125. Time-dependent modelling shows that this difference can be attributed to a different time dependence of dust formation in WR 137, which occurred approximately ∝ t ² until maximum, whereas that of WR 125 could be described by a step function, akin to a threshold effect. For an adopted distance of 1.6 kpc, the rate of dust formation was found to be 5.0×10⁻⁸ M_⊙ yr⁻¹ at maximum, accounting for a fraction f _C≈1.5×10⁻³ of the carbon flowing in the stellar wind. The fading branches of the light curves show evidence for secondary 'mini-eruptions' in 1987, 1988 and 1990, behaviour very different from that of the prototypical episodic dust-maker HD 193793 (WR 140), and suggesting the presence in the WR 137 stellar wind of large-scale structures that are crossed by the wind–wind collision region.     

Mode identification in the δ Scuti Star 1 Mon

We present new multicolour photometry and simultaneous high-dispersion spectroscopy for the δ Scuti star 1 Mon. The two main periodicities in the star are still present, but the third known period is not directly detected in the new radial velocities or light variations. However, it is detected in the periodogram of the second moment of the line profile variations. We use the cross-correlation function as an approximation for the line profile variations. By computing theoretical profiles for a given mode and comparing them with phased cross-correlation profiles, we are able to determine a goodness-of-fit criterion and estimate the most probable spherical harmonic degree,     the azimuthal order, m , of the pulsation and also the angle of inclination. We then compare the relative amplitudes and phases of the photometric variations in five wavebands and obtain the best estimates of     for the two visible periodicities. We confirm the earlier determinations that the main periodicity is a radial mode and that the other periodicity is probably         We show that the line profile variations and light variations give consistent results. We point out the importance of a long wavelength range when using the photometric mode identification technique. Finally, we attempt to match the two periods with unstable modes from linear, non-adiabatic calculations. We are able to show that the principal period is well matched by either the fundamental or first overtone radial mode, but could not find a satisfactory fit to the     mode. We discuss implications for mode identification of δ Scuti stars based on what we have learned from this star.     

The colour–magnitude relation for galaxies in the Coma cluster

We present a new photometric catalogue of the Coma galaxy cluster in the Johnson U and V bands. We cover an area of 3360 arcmin² of sky, to a depth of     in a 13-arcsec diameter aperture, and produce magnitudes for ∼1400 extended objects in metric apertures from 8.8- to 26-arcsec diameters. The mean internal rms scatter in the photometry is 0.014 mag in V , and 0.026 mag in U , for     .
We place new limits on the levels of scatter in the colour–magnitude relation (CMR) in the Coma cluster, and investigate how the slope and scatter of the CMR depend on galaxy morphology, luminosity and position within the cluster. As expected, the lowest levels of scatter are found in the elliptical galaxies, while the late-type galaxies have the highest numbers of galaxies bluewards of the CMR. We investigate whether the slope of the CMR is an artefact of colour gradients within galaxies, and show that it persists when the colours are measured within a diameter that scales with galaxy size. Looking at the environmental dependence of the CMR, we find a trend of systematically bluer galaxy colours with increasing projected radius from the centre of the cluster. Surprisingly, this is accompanied by a decreased scatter of the CMR. We investigate whether this gradient could be caused by dust in the cluster potential, however the reddening required would produce too large a scatter in the colours of the central galaxies. The gradient appears to be better reproduced by a gradient in the mean galactic ages with projected radius.     

Shear and vorticity in inflationary Brans–Dicke cosmology with lambda-term

We find a solution for exponential inflation in Brans–Dicke cosmology endowed with a cosmological term, which includes time-varying shear and vorticity. We find that the scalar field and the scale factor increase exponentialy while shear, vorticity, energy density, cosmic pressure and the cosmological term decay exponentialy for negative beta, where beta is defined in the text.