Long-term seasonal rainfall forecasting: efficiency of linear modelling technique

Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91.     

Structure and stratigraphy of Rumbli and Panjar areas of Kashmir and Pakistan with the aid of GIS

The project area lies in the southern part of the Hazara Kashmir syntaxis. The Hazara Kashmir syntaxis is an antiformal structure. The project area includes Rumbli, Namb, Chatrora, Chachan, Panjar, Barathian and Utrinna areas of Rawalpindi and Sudhnoti districts. The southeastern limb of the Hazara Kashmir syntaxis is imbricated along Punjal thrust, Main Boundary thrust and Riasi fault. The Jhelum fault truncates the western limb of Hazara Kashmir syntaxis. The core of syntaxis comprises of Himalayan molasse deposits. These molasse deposits represent the part of cover sequence of Indian plate. These Himalayan molasse deposits include the Early to Middle Miocene Kamlial Formation, Middle to Late Miocene Chinji Formation, Late Miocene Nagri Formation and Late Miocene Dhok Pathan Formation. The area is highly deformed resulting folds and faults. The major folds in the project area are the Panjar anticline, Barathian syncline, Barathian anticline, Rumbli anticline, Chatrora antiformal syncline and Namb syncline. The folds are either northwest-southeast trending or southwestnortheast trending. The folds are asymmetric, open, and gentle and close in nature. The folds are southwest, northeast or southeast vergent. The Jhelum fault truncates the northeast and northwest trending structures. The folds and faults are the result of northeastsouthwest or northwest-southeast Himalayan compression.     

Sequence stratigraphic analysis of Eocene Rock Strata,Offshore Indus,southwest Pakistan

In this study, seismic data from two wells (Pak G2-1 and Indus Marine-1C) and age diagnostic larger benthic foraminifera (LBF) within drill cuttings has been used for the first time to identify depositional sequences within the carbonates in the Offshore Indus Basin, Pakistan. The Offshore Indus is tectonically categorized as a passive continental margin where carbonates occur as shelf carbonates in the near offshore and on volcanic seamounts in deeper waters. Seismic data analysis has indicated the presence of minor faults and carbonate buildups above the igneous basement in the south. Patterns of the seismic reflections enabled definition of three seismic facies units identified as: Unit 1 basement, represented by chaotic, moderate amplitude reflection configuration; while parallel bedding and the drape of overlying strata is typical character of Unit 2, carbonate mound facies. The younger Miocene channels represent Unit 3. The diagnosis of Alveolina vredenburgi/cucumiformis biozone confirmed the Ilerdian (55–52 Ma) stage constituting a second order cycle of deposition for the Eocene carbonates (identified as Unit 2). The carbonate succession has been mainly attributed to an early highstand system tract (HST). The environmental conditions remained favorable leading to the development of keep-up carbonates similar to pinnacle buildups as a result of aggradation during late transgressive system tract and an early HST. The carbonate sequence in the south (Pak G2-1) is thicker and fossiliferous representing inner to middle shelf depths based on fauna compared to the Indus Marine-1C in the north, which is devoid of fossils. Three biozones (SBZ 5, SBZ 6 and SBZ 8) were identified based on the occurrence of LBF. The base of the SBZ 5 zone marks the larger foraminifera turnover and the Paleocene–Eocene (P–E) boundary. The LBF encountered in this study coincides with earlier findings for the P–E boundary. Our findings indicate that the entire Ilerdian stage ranges from 55.5 to 52 Ma that was the episode of warmer water conditions on the carbonate shelves leading to the diversification of K-strategist larger foraminifera. The larger foraminiferal assemblage encountered in this study confirms the findings. The possible indication of stratigraphic-combination traps, revealed as reflection terminations, make carbonate mounds in the south a potential exploration target.     

Effect of aluminum and chromium on the germination and growth of two Vigna species

The study deals with the effect of metal toxicity (aluminum, chromium and combination of both the metals) on seed germination, root length, shoot length, seedling length and dry biomass of Vigna radiata and V. sinensis. Chromium adversely affected the seedling by significantly reducing the growth whereas aluminum did not show such effect in both the species. Percentage of germination was good in both the species at different concentration of treatment (aluminum, chromium and combined treatment). Shoot length was also not much affected in V. sinensis as it was greatly inhibited in V. radiata. Both the species showed the purpling of stem. Dry biomass of V. radiata showed positive effect than V. sinensis. However, dry biomass decreased to a lesser extent when treated with aluminum, chromium and combined treatment as compared to control.     

Geochemical,isotopic and hydrological mass balance approaches to constrain the lake water–groundwater interaction in Dal Lake,Kashmir Valley

It is important to have qualitative as well as quantitative understanding of the hydraulic exchange between lake and groundwater for effective water resource management. Dal, a famous urban fresh water lake, plays a fundamental role in social, cultural and economic dynamics of the Kashmir Valley. In this paper geochemical, isotopic and hydrological mass balance approaches are used to constrain the lake water–groundwater interaction of Dal Lake and to identify the sources of lake water. Water samples of precipitation (n = 27), lake water (n = 18) and groundwater (n = 32) were collected across the lake and its catchment for the analysis of δ¹⁸O and δ²H. A total of 444 lake water samples and 440 groundwater samples (springs, tube wells and dug wells) were collected for the analysis of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, HCO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2?, Cl^?, NO₃ ^?, Na⁺ and K⁺. Water table and lake water level were monitored at 40 observation locations in the catchment. Water table map including pH and EC values corroborate and verify the gaining nature of the Dal Lake. Stable isotopes of lake water in Boddal and Gagribal basins showed more deviation from the global meteoric water line than Hazratbal and Nigeen basins, indicating the evaporation of lake water. The isotopic and geochemical mass balance suggested that groundwater contributes a significant proportion (23–40%) to Dal Lake. The estimated average groundwater contribution to Dal Lake ranged from 31.2 × 10³ to 674 × 10³ m³ day^?1 with an average of 276 × 10³ m³ day^?1. The study will be useful to delineate the possible sources of nutrients and pollutants entering the lake and for the management of lake water resources for sustainable development.     

Forest cover change assessment in conflict-affected areas of northwest Pakistan: the case of swat and shangla districts

This study examines the spatial and temporal forest cover changes in Swat and Shangla districts to understand the deforestation pattern in context of the recent security conflict in these districts. We used multi-resolution satellite images to assess the long term deforestation from 2001 to 2009 and also to identify episodic forest cutting areas appeared during the conflict period of Oct. 2007 - Oct. 2008. There are only 58 ha of deforestation identified during the conflict period while 1268 ha of gross annual deforestation were assessed during last eight years. Most of the deforestation patches persist around the administrative boundaries at sub-district levels (tehsils) which can be attributed to ambiguity in unclear jurisdiction between the forest official. The results highlight that the forest cutting appeared in Swat and Shangla during the conflict period is not as significant when compared with the long term deforestation pattern in the area. On the one side the results of the study are supportive to the picture that emerges from international studies which report high rate of deforestation in the country and on the other side it negates any relation between the security situation and the increasing deforestation in the north western Pakistan. The study concludes that deforestation assessments require verification by independent sources of data, such as satellite imagery to improve our understanding of deforestation processes.     

Current-driven Alfvén waves in dusty magnetospheric plasmas

It is shown that the sheared flow of electrons and ions in the presence of heavy stationary dust gives rise to unstable Alfvén waves. The coupling of newly studied low frequency electrostatic current-driven mode with the electromagnetic Alfvén and drift waves is investigated. The instability conditions and the growth rates of both inertial and kinetic Alfvén waves are estimated. The theoretical model is applied to the night side boundary regions of Jupiter’s magnetosphere which contain positive dust. The growth rates increase with increase in sheared flow speed. In the nonlinear regime, both inertial and kinetic Alfvén waves form dipolar vortices whose speed and amplitude depend upon the magnitude of the zero-order current.     

Chemical Characteristics of Stream Draining fromDudu Glacier: An Alpine Meltwater Stream inGanga Headwater, Garhwal Himalaya

I-DtjcrONAlpine environment enjoys a distinct set of physicochemical conditions asl compared to other aqueous systems. Thehydrochemical characteristics of meltwater draining from thisenvironment are different from the other aqueous ecosystemsdue to their mountainous nature and extreme cold climatic conditions. The high concentration of various chemical constitu.ents in meltwater shows the intensive chemical weathering inthe basin. The rapid physical weathering due tO grinding actionof the gl…     

Analysis and farmers’ perception of climate change in the Kashmir Valley,India

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Analysis of climatic variables is important for the detection and attribution of climate change trends and has received considerable attention from researchers...     

Bias correction method of high-resolution satellite-based precipitation product for Peninsular Malaysia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Satellite-based precipitation (SBP) is emerging as a reliable source for high-resolution rainfall estimates over the globe. However, uncertainty in SBP is...