East African food security as influenced by future climate change and land use change at local to regional scales

Climate change impacts food production systems, particularly in locations with large, vulnerable populations. Elevated greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as land cover/land use change (LCLUC), can influence regional climate dynamics. Biophysical factors such as topography, soil type, and seasonal rainfall can strongly affect crop yields. We used a regional climate model derived from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to compare the effects of projected future GHG and future LCLUC on spatial variability of crop yields in East Africa. Crop yields were estimated with a process-based simulation model. The results suggest that: (1) GHG-influenced and LCLUC-influenced yield changes are highly heterogeneous across this region; (2) LCLUC effects are significant drivers of yield change; and (3) high spatial variability in yield is indicated for several key agricultural sub-regions of East Africa. Food production risk when considered at the household scale is largely dependent on the occurrence of extremes, so mean yield in some cases may be an incomplete predictor of risk. The broad range of projected crop yields reflects enormous variability in key parameters that underlie regional food security; hence, donor institutions’ strategies and investments might benefit from considering the spatial distribution around mean impacts for a given region. Ultimately, global assessments of food security risk would benefit from including regional and local assessments of climate impacts on food production. This may be less of a consideration in other regions. This study supports the concept that LCLUC is a first-order factor in assessing food production risk.     

Variation in Solvent-Extractable Lipids and n-Alkane Compound-Specific Carbon Isotopic Compositions with Depth in a Southern China Karst Area Soil

Because literatures about the lipid compositions of modern soils in karst areas are scarce,we have studied the soil horizons overlying the Heshang(和尚) Cave that has provided paleoclimate records from speleothem lipid contents.Our analysis reveals a series of n-alkanes,free fatty acids,n-alkanols and n-alkan-2-ones distribution and relative abundance changing with the depth,and in which the ratios of the lower molecular weight to higher molecular weight n-alkanes,free fatty acids,n-alkanols and n-alkan-2-one...     

The behaviour of Li and Mg isotopes during primary phase dissolution and secondary mineral formation in basalt

This study presents lithium (Li) and magnesium (Mg) isotope data from experiments designed to assess the effects of dissolution of primary phases and the formation of secondary minerals during the weathering of basalt. Basalt glass and olivine dissolution experiments were performed in mixed through-flow reactors under controlled equilibrium conditions, at low pH (2-4) in order to keep solutions undersaturated (i.e. far-from equilibrium) and inhibit the formation of secondary minerals. Combined dissolution-precipitation experiments were performed at high pH (10 and 11) increasing the saturation state of the solutions (moving the system closer to equilibrium) and thereby promoting the formation of secondary minerals.At conditions far from equilibrium saturation state modelling and solution stoichiometry suggest that little secondary mineral formation has occurred. This is supported by the similarity of the dissolution rates of basalt glass and olivine obtained here compared to those of previous experiments. The δ⁷Li isotope composition of the experimental solution is indistinguishable from that of the initial basalt glass or olivine indicating that little fractionation has occurred. In contrast, the same experimental solutions have light Mg isotope compositions relative to the primary phases, and the solution becomes progressively lighter with time. In the absence of any evidence for secondary mineral formation the most likely explanation for these light Mg isotope compositions is that there has been preferential loss of light Mg during primary phase dissolution.For the experiments undertaken at close to equilibrium conditions the results of saturation state modelling and changes in solution chemistry suggest that secondary mineral formation has occurred. X-ray diffraction (XRD) measurements of the reacted mineral products from these experiments confirm that the principal secondary phase that has formed is chrysotile. Lithium isotope ratios of the experimental fluid become increasingly heavy with time, consistent with previous experimental work and natural data indicating that ⁶Li is preferentially incorporated into secondary minerals, leaving the solution enriched in ⁷Li. The behaviour of Mg isotopes is different from that anticipated or observed in natural systems. Similar to the far from equilibrium experiments initially light Mg is lost during olivine dissolution, but with time the δ²⁶Mg value of the solution becomes increasingly heavy. This suggests either preferential loss of light, and then heavy Mg from olivine, or that the secondary phase preferentially incorporates light Mg from solution. Assuming that the secondary phase is chrysotile, a Mg-silicate, the sense of Mg fractionation is opposite to that previously associated with silicate soils and implies that the fractionation of Mg isotopes during silicate precipitation may be mineral specific. If secondary silicates do preferentially remove light Mg from solution then this could be a possible mechanism for the relatively heavy δ²⁶Mg value of seawater. This study highlights the utility of experimental studies to quantify the effects of natural weathering reactions on the Li and Mg geochemical cycles.     

Rock falls in the Mont Blanc Massif in 2007 and 2008

Due to a lack of systematic observations, the intensity and volume of rock falls and rock avalanches in high mountain areas are still poorly known. Nevertheless, these phenomena could have burly consequences. To document present rock falls, a network of observers (guides, mountaineers, and hut wardens) was initiated in the Mont Blanc Massif in 2005 and became fully operational in 2007. This article presents data on the 66 rock falls (100 m³?≤?V?≤?50,000 m³) documented in 2007 (n?=?41) and 2008 (n?=?25). Most of the starting zones are located in warm permafrost areas, which are most sensitive to warming, and only four rock falls are clearly out of permafrost area. Different elements support permafrost degradation as one of the main triggering factors of present rock falls in high mountain areas.     

A probabilistic calibration of climate sensitivity and terrestrial carbon change in GENIE-1

In order to investigate Last Glacial Maximum and future climate, we “precalibrate” the intermediate complexity model GENIE-1 by applying a rejection sampling approach to deterministic emulations of the model. We develop ~1,000 parameter sets which reproduce the main features of modern climate, but not precise observations. This allows a wide range of large-scale feedback response strengths which generally encompass the range of GCM behaviour. We build a deterministic emulator of climate sensitivity and quantify the contributions of atmospheric (±0.93°C, 1σ) vegetation (±0.32°C), ocean (±0.24°C) and sea–ice (±0.14°C) parameterisations to the total uncertainty. We then perform an LGM-constrained Bayesian calibration, incorporating data-driven priors and formally accounting for structural error. We estimate climate sensitivity as likely (66% confidence) to lie in the range 2.6–4.4°C, with a peak probability at 3.6°C. We estimate LGM cooling likely to lie in the range 5.3–7.5°C, with a peak probability at 6.2°C. In addition to estimates of global temperature change, we apply our ensembles to derive LGM and 2xCO₂ probability distributions for land carbon storage, Atlantic overturning and sea–ice coverage. Notably, under 2xCO₂ we calculate a probability of 37% that equilibrium terrestrial carbon storage is reduced from modern values, so the land sink has become a net source of atmospheric CO₂.     

Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data

This study evaluates new multi-scale, multi-indicator methods for assessing the vulnerability of crop production to drought at a national and regional scale. It does this by identifying differences across and within ten regions of Ghana, a country that faces many climate and crop production challenges typical of sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, we illustrate how a quantitative national and regional study is a critical first step in assessing differences in the drought sensitivity of food production systems and show how such an assessment enables the formulation of more targeted district and community level research that can explore the drivers of vulnerability and change on a local-scale. Finally, we propose methodological steps that can improve drought sensitivity and vulnerability assessments in dynamic dryland farming systems where there are multiple drivers of change and thresholds of risk that vary in both space and time. Results show that the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana has discernible geographical and socioeconomic patterns, with the Northern, Upper West and Upper East regions being most vulnerable. Partly, this is because these regions have the lowest adaptive capacity due to low socioeconomic development and have economies based on rain-fed agriculture. Within these regions we find considerable differences between districts that can be explained only partly by socioeconomic variables with further community and household-scale research required to explain the causes of differences in vulnerability status. Our results highlight that national and regional scale multi-indicator vulnerability assessments are a vital (and often ignored) first step in assessing vulnerability across a large area. These inputs can guide both local-level research and also demonstrate the need for region-specific policies to reduce vulnerability and to enhance drought preparedness within dryland farming communities.     

<Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar dating of the eruptive history of Mount Erebus,Antarctica: summit flows,tephra, and caldera collapse

Eruptive activity has occurred in the summit region of Mount Erebus over the last 95 ky, and has included numerous lava flows and small explosive eruptions, at least one plinian eruption, and at least one and probably two caldera-forming events. Furnace and laser step-heating ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages have been determined for 16 summit lava flows and three englacial tephra layers erupted from Mount Erebus. The summit region is composed of at least one or possibly two superimposed calderas that have been filled by post-caldera lava flows ranging in age from 17 ± 8 to 1 ± 5 ka. Dated pre-caldera summit flows display two age populations at 95 ± 9 to 76 ± 4 ka and 27 ± 3 to 21 ± 4 ka of samples with tephriphonolite and phonolite compositions, respectively. A caldera-collapse event occurred between 25 and 11 ka. An older caldera-collapse event is likely to have occurred between 80 and 24 ka. Two englacial tephra layers from the flanks of Mount Erebus have been dated at 71 ± 5 and 15 ± 4 ka. These layers stratigraphically bracket 14 undated tephra layers, and predate 19 undated tephra layers, indicating that small-scale explosive activity has occurred throughout the late Pleistocene and Holocene eruptive history of Mount Erebus. A distal, englacial plinian-fall tephra sample has an age of 39 ± 6 ka and may have been associated with the older of the two caldera-collapse events. A shift in magma composition from tephriphonolite to phonolite occurred at around 36 ka.Editorial responsibility: Julie Donnelly-Nolan     

Alkali exchange equilibria between a silicate melt and coexisting magmatic volatile phase: an experimental study at 800°C and 100 MPa

Many experimental studies have been performed to evaluate the composition of coexisting silicate melts and magmatic volatile phases (MVP). However, few studies have attempted to define the relationship between melt chemistry and the acidity of a chloride-bearing fluid. Here we report data on melt composition as a function of the HCl concentration of coexisting brines. We performed 35 experimental runs with a NaCl-KCl-HCl-H₂O brine (70 wt% NaCl [equivalent])-silicate melt (starting composition of Qtz_0.38Ab_0.33Or_0.29, anhydrous) assemblage at 800°C and 100 MPa. We determined an apparent equilibrium constant

     

Promoting indigenous entrepreneurship through small-scale contract farming: The poultry sector in Sarawak, Malaysia

Studies have consistently shown that in the relatively unregulated environments of the global economic periphery contract farming has led to highly regressive socioeconomic outcomes. Contract farming is not inherently regressive for the small farm sector however. In the state of Sarawak, Malaysia, contract farming is used as part of an affirmative action programme that trains indigenous smallholders in commercial poultry production. The public sector quasi-market constructed by state purchasers and subsidiary suppliers is one that recognizes the smallholders' limited access to collateral and technical skills and their need to supplement rather than totally replace the incomes already derived from diverse agricultural and off-farm sources. The state-administered contract scheme is part of a broader national goal to eradicate poverty, raise rural incomes and ultimately, develop indigenous entrepreneurship. In the shorter and medium term, as the paper shows, the small-scale public contract scheme, which itself operates within the protected domestic poultry sector in Sarawak, is more likely to support disadvantaged 'bumiputra minorities' than produce a pool of competitive entrepreneurs.