Application of GAINS model for assessing selected air pollutants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan,Pakistan

Pakistan is a developing country existing geographically at a pivoted location between two of the world’s largest pollution emitting countries (China and India) which adds to the severity of environmental issues faced by the country. These concerns include air pollution, climate change, and extreme weather situations prevailing in Pakistan. This increasing air pollution is deteriorating the health, threatening the food security and adding up its share to the already existing global warming. The initial step in devising a wide ranging, multifaceted, economically feasible, and sustainable solution to deal with the severity of this issue is the quantification of the air pollution and greenhouse gas emission in Pakistan. The GAINS model is one of the most comprehensive tools, dealing with the air pollutants and greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol. This study has utilized this model to analyze the source-based anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants (NH₃ and SO₂), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and greenhouse gases (CH₄ and CO₂), their impacts and abatement cost, for the duration of 1990–2030, in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan regions of Pakistan. An overall increasing trend was observed during 1990–2030 for (a) air pollutants: NH₃ (223.52–568.87kT/Y); SO₂ (50.52–332.95kT/Y), (b) VOCs (121.76–246.81kT/Y), and (c) greenhouse gases: CO₂ (7.83–62.45MT/Y) and CH₄ (1120-2314kT/Y). The emission inventories created for all greenhouse gases together estimated the increase of 42.37 to 138.57 MTCO₂eq. for greenhouse gases over the time duration of 1990–2030.     

Evaluation of sediment contamination in the Red Sea coastal area combining multiple pollution indices and multivariate statistical techniques

In the recent years,the Red Sea coast of Yemen has been severely affected by intensive anthropogenic activities.The current study constitutes a thorough inquiry to evaluate the extent of heavy metals pollution in Yemen's Red Sea coast sediment and identifies the possible sources of pollution.The concentrations of five metals(copper(Cu),zinc(Zn),cadmium(Cd),lead(Pb),and nickel(Ni))collected from nine sites along the Red Sea coast of Yemen were assessed using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer(ASS).Sediment quality indices,such as the sediment quality guidelines(SQGs),potential ecological risk(RI),contamination factor(CF),pollution load index(PLI),geoaccumulation index(Igeo),and modified degree of contamination(mCd)were computed.In addition,multivariate statistical techniques(principal component analysis(PCA),hierarchical cluster analysis,and Pearson's correlation analysis)were applied to identify the potential sources of metals.The mean concentrations of Cu,Zn,Cd,Pb,and Ni were 51.3,61.9,4.02,9.9,and 33.4 mg/kg dry wt,respectively.The spatial distribution revealed that the metals concentrations were high at the middle zone and low southward of Hodeida city.According to the SQGs,the adverse biological effects of metals were occasionally associated with Cu and Cd,frequently associated with Ni,and not expected to occur with Zn and Pb.The RI indicated that the sediment of the studied sites pose low(RI<50)to considerable(100≤RI<200)ecological risk.The mean effect range-median quotient(M-ERM-Q)indicated that the combination of the studied metals had the toxicity probability of 21%at all studied sites.Igeo and CF indicated that the metals concentrations were in the descending order of:Zn>Ni>Pb>Cd>Cu,whereas the PLI and mCd indicated that Ras Isa(Site 5)and Urj village(Site 6)were the most polluted sites.PCA,cluster analysis,and correlation analysis found that Cd,Pb,and Ni mostly originated from anthropogenic sources while Cu and Zn were mainly derived from natural sources.Thus,it is evident that the intensive anthropogenic activities had negative influence on metals accumulation in the sediment of the Red Sea coast of Yemen leading to detrimental effects to the whole ecosystem.These comprehensive findings provide valuable information and data for future monitoring studies regarding heavy metals pollution and sediment quality at the Red Sea coast of Yemen.     

Analysis of recharge conceptualization in inverse groundwater modelling

ABSTRACT

This study presents a systematic illustration quantifying how misleading the calibration results of a groundwater simulation model can be when recharge rates are considered as the model parameters to be estimated by inverse modelling. Three approaches to recharge estimation are compared: autocalibration (Model 1), the empirical return coefficient method (Model 2), and distributed hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT (Model 3). The methodology was applied in the Dehloran Plain, western Iran, using the MODFLOW modular flow simulator and the PEST method for autocalibration. The results indicate that, although Model 1 performed the best in simulating water levels at observation wells in the calibration stage, it did not perform satisfactorily in real future scenarios. Model 3, with SWAT-based recharge rates, performed better than the other models in the validation stage. By not evaluating the model performance solely on calibration results, we demonstrate the relative significance of using more accurate recharge estimates when calibrating groundwater simulation models.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR M. Besbes     

Age and composition of Antarctic sub-glacial bedrock reflected by detrital zircons,erratics, and recycled microfossils in the Ellsworth Land–Antarctic Peninsula–Weddell Sea–Dronning Maud Land sector (240°E–0°–015°E)

The age and composition of the 14 × 10⁶ km² of Antarctica's surface obscured by ice is unknown except for some dated detrital minerals and erratics. In remedy, we present four new analyses (U–Pb age, T_DM^C, εHf, and rock type) of detrital zircons from Neogene turbidites as proxies of Antarctic bedrock, and review published proxies: detrital hornblendes analysed for Ar–Ar age and bulk Sm–Nd isotopes; Pb isotope compositions of detrital K-feldspars; erratics and dropstones that reflect age and composition; and recycled microfossils that reflect age and facies. This work deals with the 240°E–0°–015°E sector, and complements Veevers and Saeed's (2011) analysis of the 70°E–240°E sector. Each sample is located in its ice-drainage basin for backtracking to the potential provenance. Gaps in age between sample and upslope exposure are specifically attributable to the provenance. The major provenance of detritus west of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is West Antarctica, and of detritus east of the AP East Antarctica. We confirm that the Central Antarctic provenance about a core of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains (GSM) and the Vostok Subglacial Highlands (VSH) contains a basement that includes igneous (mafic granitoids) and metamorphic rocks with peak U–Pb ages of 0.65–0.50, 1.20–0.9, 2.1–1.9, 2.8–2.6, and 3.35–3.30 Ga, T_DM^C of 3.6–1.3 Ga, and mainly negative εHf. The potential provenance of zircons of 650–500 Ma age with T_DM^C ages of 1.55 Ga, and of zircons of 1200–900 Ma age with positive εHf lies beneath the ice in East Antarctica south and southeast of Dronning Maud Land within the Antarctic part of the East African–Antarctic Orogen. Zircons with the additional ages of 1.7–1.4 Ga, 2.1–1.9 Ga, and 3.35–3.00 Ga have a potential provenance in the GSM.     

Ascribing soil erosion types for sediment yield using composite fingerprinting technique

Abstract

Soil erosion and eroded sediment are serious threats to sound land management. However, less attention has been given to quantifying the importance of different soil erosion features based on appropriate control measures that could be designated. Accordingly, this research was planned to quantify the contribution of potential sediment sources, i.e. sheet, rill and gully erosion, in Idelo watershed in Zanjan Province, Iran, using composite fingerprinting. Toward this aim, 16 geochemical and organic tracers were detected in sediment sources and sediment deposited at the outlet. The results of applying the composite fingerprinting technique, with a relative error of 16%, showed that sheet, rill and gully sources contributed 56%, 44% and 0%, respectively, to sediment yield. It was also apparent from the results that the composite fingerprinting approach could be successfully utilized to assess the provenance of sediment deposited at the main outlet of the study watershed by soil erosion type.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Proposed algorithm for optimization of directional additional exploratory drill holes and computer coding

Block model estimated based on the drill hole information gathered during exploration stage is not appropriate for short- and medium-term mine planning. Additional information prior to mining is required for various purposes, that the source of this information is drill holes. In most situations, reducing the overall uncertainty on the estimation is the major objective of additional drilling and collecting samples from them. The topic of selecting the optimum location for additional exploratory drill holes has been of interest to mining engineers and geostatisticians in the second half of last century, but all of them are not able to optimize directional drill holes because they are based on the 2D space and do not consider the 3D extension of drill holes and block model. This study introduces a methodology to optimize the dip and location of additional exploratory drill holes based on the defined objective function with considering 3D extension of ore body and drill holes. Direct search simulated annealing used that is efficient and robust method for solving the nonlinear unconstrained global optimization problems. This method is very useful in the case that drilling the drill holes with different dips has been obligated due to topography condition and ore body situation. A case study in gold resource illustrates the method.     

Tidal simulation revisited

Ocean Dynamics - Accurate representation of tides is a pre-requisite for simulating many complex coastal processes. This study examines several most important factors for rigorous validation of...     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Thailand

A set of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Thailand has been derived using procedures developed for the latest US National Seismic Hazard Maps. In contrast to earlier hazard maps for this region, which are mostly computed using seismic source zone delineations, the presented maps are based on the combination of smoothed gridded seismicity, crustal-fault, and subduction source models. Thailand’s composite earthquake catalogue is revisited and expanded, covering a study area limited by 0°–30°N Latitude and 88°–110°E Longitude and the instrumental period from 1912 to 2007. The long-term slip rates and estimates of earthquake size from paleoseismological studies are incorporated through a crustal fault source model. Furthermore, the subduction source model is used to model the megathrust Sunda subduction zones, with variable characteristics along the strike of the faults. Epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration by the logic tree framework incorporating basic quantities, such as different source modelling, maximum cut-off magnitudes and ground motion prediction equations. The ground motion hazard map is presented over a 10 km grid in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2, 1.0, and 2.0 undamped natural periods and a 5% critical damping ratio for 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The presented maps give expected ground motions that are based on more extensive data sources than applied in the development of previous maps. The main findings are that northern and western Thailand are subjected to the highest hazard. The largest contributors to short- and long-period ground motion hazard in the Bangkok region are from the nearby active faults and Sunda subduction zones, respectively.     

The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes

The interannual variation of precipitation in the southern part of Iran and its link with the large-scale climate modes are examined using monthly data from 183 meteorological stations during 1974–2005. The majority of precipitation occurs during the rainy season from October to May. The interannual variation in fall and early winter during the first part of the rainy season shows apparently a significant positive correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a partial correlation analysis used to extract the respective influence of IOD and ENSO shows a significant positive correlation only with the IOD and not with ENSO. The southeasterly moisture flux anomaly over the Arabian Sea turns anti-cyclonically and transport more moisture to the southern part of Iran from the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf during the positive IOD. On the other hand, the moisture flux has northerly anomaly over Iran during the negative IOD, which results in reduced moisture supply from the south. During the latter part of the rainy season in late winter and spring, the interannual variation of precipitation is more strongly influenced by modes of variability over the Mediterranean Sea. The induced large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly controls moisture supply from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.     

The plurality effect of topographical irregularities on site seismic response

Topography can have significant effects on seismic ground response during an earthquake because topographic irregularities cause considerable differences between the seismic waves emitted by the source and the waves reaching the ground surface. When a seismic motion happens in a topographically irregular area, seismic waves are trapped and reflected between the topographic features. Therefore, the interaction between topographies can amplify seismic ground response. In order to reveal how interaction between topographies influences seismic response, several numerical finite element studies have been performed by using the ABAQUS program. The results show that topographic features a greater distance between the seismic source and the site would cause greater seismic motion amplification and is perceptible for the hills far away from the source and the ridges. Also, site acceleration response is impacted by surrounding topography further than site velocity and displacement response.