Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped‐storage operation and climate change

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped‐storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one‐dimensional and a two‐dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21^st century was projected to shorten the ice‐covered period by ~2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by ~13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by ~13% for current climate and could further be reduced from ~45% to ~10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one‐dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two‐dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.     

Options to overcome the barriers to pricing European agricultural emissions

Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account.     

Escaping the climate policy uncertainty trap: options contracts for REDD+

Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO₂ could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.

Key policy insights

• Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.

• This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.

• There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.

• Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.

     

Behavior of arsenic and antimony in the surface freshwater reaches of a highly turbid estuary, the Gironde Estuary, France

This study reports on the behavior of two redox-sensitive elements, As and Sb, along the turbidity gradient in the freshwater reaches of the turbid Gironde Estuary. During a 17-month survey, surface water and suspended particulate matter (SPM) were sampled monthly at six sites representing both fluvial branches of the Gironde Estuary. Additionally, two longitudinal high resolution profiles were sampled along the fluvial estuary of the Garonne Branch during two contrasted seasons, i.e. with and without the presence of the maximum turbidity zone (MTZ). Seasonal variability and spatial distribution of dissolved (<0.2 μm; <0.02 μm) and particulate As, Sb and Fe were measured and combined with SPM data to understand metalloid behavior in the estuarine freshwater turbidity gradient.At the two main fluvial entries of the Gironde Estuary, dissolved As and Sb concentrations showed strong (by a factor of 2–4) seasonal variations, that were only partly controlled by discharge-related dilution. Seasonal addition of dissolved As and Sb was attributed to the degradation of particulate As and Sb carrier phases in bottom sediment and/or in the adjacent aquifers, rather than release from SPM. In the surface freshwater reaches of the Gironde Estuary, Sb behaved conservatively under all hydrological conditions. In contrast, As was strongly reactive in the presence of the MTZ, with opposite behaviors in the two fluvial branches of the estuary: in the Garonne Branch As was removed from the dissolved phase, whereas in the Dordogne Branch As was added. Redistribution of As between the dissolved and the particulate phases along the turbidity gradient in estuarine freshwater only affected the <0.02 μm fraction, as the 0.02–0.2 μm fraction remained constant (300 ng L⁻¹ in September 2005). Accordingly, As removal seemed to be decoupled from concomitant “colloidal” (0.02–0.2 μm) Fe flocculation in the turbidity gradient. The contrasting behavior of dissolved As in the fluvial estuaries of the Garonne and Dordogne Branches was attributed to sorption processes during equilibration of river-borne dissolved As with estuarine SPM forming the MTZ. This equilibrium, described by a distinct distribution coefficient K_d(As)  11,000 L kg⁻¹ in the MTZ, resulted in either As release (desorption; Dordogne Branch) or removal (adsorption; Garonne Branch) in the respective fluvial estuaries. A mixing experiment under controlled laboratory conditions tended to support that equilibration between the dissolved phase and MTZ particles may induce both As release and removal in the estuarine freshwater reaches, with As distribution evolving towards a distinct K_d value for increasing SPM concentrations. The long-term survey allowed estimating annual (2004) dissolved fluxes of As and, for the first time Sb, at the main fluvial entries of the Gironde Estuary at 30.7 t a⁻¹ and 3.2 t a⁻¹ (Garonne River) and at 8.0 t a⁻¹ and 2.3 t a⁻¹ (Dordogne River), respectively.     

High temperature gas–solid reactions in calc–silicate Cu–Au skarn formation; Ertsberg,Papua Province,Indonesia

The 2.7–3 Ma Ertsberg East Skarn System (Indonesia), adjacent to the giant Grasberg Porphyry Copper deposit, is part of the world’s largest system of Cu–Au skarn deposits. Published fluid inclusion and stable isotope data show that it formed through the flux of magma-derived fluid through contact metamorphosed carbonate rock sequences at temperatures well above 600° C and pressures of less than 50 MPa. Under these conditions, the fluid has very low density and the properties of a gas. Combining a range of micro-analytical techniques, high-resolution QEMSCAN mineral mapping and computer-assisted X-ray micro-tomography, an array of coupled gas–solid reactions may be identified that controlled reactive mass transfer through the ~ 1 km³ hydrothermal skarn system. Vacancy-driven mineral chemisorption reactions are identified as a new type of reactive transport process for high-temperature skarn alteration. These gas–solid reactions are maintained by the interaction of unsatisfied bonds on mineral surfaces and dipolar gas-phase reactants such as SO₂ and HCl that are continuously supplied through open fractures and intergranular diffusion. Principal reactions are (a) incongruent dissolution of almandine-grossular to andradite and anorthite (an alteration mineral not previously recognized at Ertsberg), and (b) sulfation of anorthite to anhydrite. These sulfation reactions also generate reduced sulfur with consequent co-deposition of metal sulfides. Diopside undergoes similar reactions with deposition of Fe-enriched pyroxene in crypto-veins and vein selvedges. The loss of calcium from contact metamorphic garnet to form vein anhydrite necessarily results in Fe-enrichment of wallrock, and does not require Fe-addition from a vein fluid as is commonly assumed.     

Review on dating methods: Numerical dating in the quaternary geology of High Asia

Over the past few years, OSL and TCN datings of glacial material from High Asia have come into fashion. To this day, however, these techniques do not permit safe calibration. The intensity of the cosmic ray flux is being modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields and their secular fluctuations in the past. So far, these variations cannot be converted into the respective local TCN production rates for High Asia. We have reason to believe that the ages that are being calculated despite these uncertainties are generally overestimated. This assessment is supported by conventional radiocarbon dates and above all by the glacial chronology developed independently on the basis of the Quaternary geological method. The strongly emerging evidence for a much more extensive LGM glaciation of High Asia is, however, either being ignored or rejected by many authors, solely on the basis of the above-mentioned uncalibrated datings. This self-conceit based on the “dating fallacy”, as we call it, should be avoided since it goes decidedly against the standards of the scientific method established in Quaternary geology and makes a fundamental scientific discussion impossible.     

Using subsurface metazoan fauna to indicate groundwater–surface water interactions in the Nakdong River floodplain, South Korea

Hydrological interactions between surface water and groundwater (GW) can be described using hydrochemical and biological methods. Surface water–groundwater interactions and their effects on groundwater invertebrate communities were studied in the Nakdong River floodplain in South Korea. Furthermore, the GW-Fauna-Index, a promising new index for assessing the strength of surface-water influence on groundwater, was tested. The influence of surface water on groundwater decreased with increasing depth and distance from the river. While hydrochemistry prevailingly reflected the origin of the waters in the study area (i.e. whether alluvial or from adjacent rock), faunal communities seemed to display an affinity to surface-water intrusion. Fauna reacted quickly to changes in hydrology, and temporal changes in faunal community structure were significantly linked to the hydrological situation in the floodplain. The metazoan faunal community and the GW-Fauna-Index allow a distinction between surface and subsurface waters with varying degrees of exchange. The results indicate that hydrological conditions are reflected by faunal assemblages on a high spatiotemporal resolution, and that surface-water intrusion can be estimated using the GW-Fauna-Index.     

Global change and the biogeochemistry of the North Sea: the possible role of phytoplankton and phytoplankton grazing

Phytoplankton plays a dominant role in shelf biogeochemistry by producing the major part of organic matter. Part of the organic matter will reach the sediment where diagenetic processes like denitrification, apatite formation or burial will remove nutrients from the biogeochemical cycle. In this article current knowledge on the decadal plankton variability in the North Sea is summarized and possible implications of these changes for the biogeochemistry of the North Sea are discussed. Most of the observed interdecadal dynamics seem to be linked to large-scale oceanographic and atmospheric processes. Prominent changes in the North Sea ecosystem have taken place around 1979 and 1988. In general, the phytoplankton color (CPRS indicator of phytoplankton biomass) reached minimum values during the end of the 1970s and has increased especially since the mid 1980s. Changes with a similar timing have been identified in many time series from the North Sea through the entire ecosystem and are sometimes referred to as regime shifts. It is suggested that the impact of global change on the local biogeochemistry is largely driven by the phyto- and zooplankton dynamics during spring and early summer. At that time the extent of zooplankton–phytoplankton interaction either allows that a large part of the new production is settling to the sediment, or that a significant part of the new production including the fixed nutrients is kept within the pelagic system. The origin of the extent of the phytoplankton–zooplankton interaction in spring is probably set in the previous autumn and winter. In coastal areas, both large-scale atmospheric and oceanographic changes as well as anthropogenic factors influence the long-term dynamics. Due to eutrophication, local primary production nowadays still is up to five times higher than during pre-industrial conditions, despite a decreasing trend. Recently, introduced species have strengthened the filter feeder component of coastal ecosystems. Especially in shallow coastal seas like the Wadden Sea, this will enhance particle retention, shift organic matter degradation to the benthic compartment and enhance nutrient removal from the biogeochemical cycle by denitrification or apatite formation.     

Intrusion versus inversion—a 3D density model of the southern rim of the Northwest German Basin

An unsolved problem of regional importance for both the evolution and structure of the Northwest German Basin is the existence or non-existence of the so-called Bramsche Massif. Explaining the nature of this massif and the cause of a related strong, positive Bouguer anomaly (Bramsche Anomaly) is critical. In the study described here, we tested an existing “intrusion model” against a newer “inversion model” in the southern Northwest German Basin. In the intrusion model, the strongly-positive Bouguer anomaly represents the gravity effect of an intrusion at depths between 6 and 10 km. More recent interpretations invoke tectonic inversion rather than intrusion to explain increased burial and the low level of hydrocarbon maturity found in boreholes. We tested these different interpretations by constructing 3D forward density models to 15 km depth. The intrusion model was updated and adjusted to incorporate recent data and we also modelled pre-Zechstein structures using different scenarios. The final model has a very good fit between measured and modelled gravity fields. Based on currently available seismic and structural models, as well as borehole density measurements, we show that the positive Bouguer anomaly cannot be modeled without a high-density, intrusive-like body at depth. However, further in-sight into the crustal structures of the Bramsche region requires more detailed investigations. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.