Temporal features in thunder days in the United States

1901–80 data for the contiguous U.S. show that secular variability of thunder days was very much less than that of precipitation or of frequency of extra tropical cyclones. Overall, there may have been a slight decline, but more evident was an increase to the thirties followed by a falling off, broken only by a peak in the seventies. These up-and-down movements were evident in most months of the year and regions of the U.S. The general decrease, however, was clear only in the South East and replaced by an increase in the Upper Great Lakes region. Secular variation in thunder day frequency was slightly correlated positively with that of extra tropical cyclone frequency and negatively with sea level pressure. The analysis also confirmed well known seasonal and regional patterns of thunder activity.     

Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.     

Effects of summer precipitation on urban transportation

Potential shifts in summer precipitation due to an enhanced greenhouse effect indicate the possibility of more rain days and heavier rains in the Midwest, and this study assessed the effects of such changes on transportation in Chicago using a 3-year period of data. Traffic accidents in the metropolitan area doubled on rainy days, with 30% more accidents in more densely populated urban areas than in suburban-rural areas. During rain events accident severity (number of injuries) was 55% higher in suburban and rural areas where less dense but higher speed traffic flows exist than in the city, however. Rain days during dry months produced more accidents and injuries than during normal or wet months. Three times as many accidents occurred during heavy rain periods (> 12.8 mm) as during nonrain conditions. Rain had a negligible influence on weekday traffic volume on busy highways but there was a 9% decrease in traffic volume on rainy weekends. A 3–5% decrease in ridership of public transportation occurred on rainy days, with most decreases during midday. Nationally, 27% of all fatality-producing aircraft accidents occurred during rainy weather conditions, as did 57% of the 30-min flight delays at Chicago's O'Hare Airport. Results suggest that given continued transportation use patterns extend into the future, a future climate with more summer rain days, somewhat higher rain rates, and more storms would mean more total vehicular accidents, more total injuries in vehicular accidents, decreased ridership on public transportation systems, and more aircraft accidents and delays. A drier climate would likely experience fewer moderate to heavy rain events but results show that rain events during drier conditions produced a greater frequency of accidents and injuries per event than during wetter conditions.     

Temporal and spatial distributions of wind storm damages in the United States

High wind caused catastrophes, storms causing property losses >$1 million, during 1952–2006 averaged 3.1 events per year in the U.S. The average loss per event was $90 million, and the annual average loss was $354 million. High wind catastrophes were most frequent in the Northeast, Central, and West Coast areas. Storm losses on the West Coast were the nation’s highest, averaging $115 million per event. High wind losses are the nation’s only form of severe weather that maximizes on the West Coast. High wind catastrophes were most frequent in winter, and were infrequent in the late spring and early fall seasons. Loss areas were frequently confined to one state. Losses in the western U.S. and nationally have increased during the 1952–2006 period, both with statistically significant upward trends.     

Stable Isotope Ratios: Hurricane Olivia

The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions of rains from HurricaneOlivia (1994) in the eastern Pacific were measured. The rains werecollected on 24 and 25 September during airplane flights conducted at anelevation of 3 km. Hurricane Olivia peaked in intensity to a category-4storm between the two dates. Isotope ratios of rains from HurricaneOlivia were markedly lower ( ¹⁸O = –13.9to –28.8) than that of rain collected from a thunderstormat an elevation of 2.3 km outside the influence of Olivia (¹⁸O = –3.8). A distinct decrease in isotoperatios from the first day to the next ( ¹⁸O =–18.4 to –21.9) in Hurricane Olivia wasattributed to decreased updraft velocities and outflow aloft. Thisshifted the isotopic water mass balance so that fewer hydrometeors werelifted and more ice descended to flight level. A decrease in the averagedeuterium excess from the first day to the next (d = 15.5 to 7.1)was attributed to an increase in the relative humidity of the watervapor `source' area. We hypothesize that the `source' region for therain was in the boundary layer near the storm center and that becausethe hurricane was at peak intensity prior to the second day the relative humidity was higher.     

A temporal model for landslide risk based on historical precipitation

Of the recognized nonsteady-state factors that influence slope stability, probably most critical in many field situations is the character of precipitation and infiltration activity. A groundwater response model used in conjunction with precipitation records can provide a historical catalog of estimated maximum groundwater levels in a particular study area. An extreme-value statistical analysis of this catalog is linked with geotechnical slope stability analyses to provide a landslide hazard model for estimating the probability of slope failure within a given time. This modeling approach can provide meaningful input to risk assessments for landslide mitigation programs and to decision analyses and cost-benefit studies important for land-use planning and resource management.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.     

Nickel-copper mineralization at Talnotry,Newton Stewart,Scotland

Summary Nickel-copper mineralization occurs near the base of a diorite intrusion close to its contact with hornfelsed Ordovician and Silurian shales and greywackes. The principal ore minerals are nickeline, gersdorffite, pyrrhotine, pentlandite and chalcopyrite with minor amounts of molybdenite, tellurobismutite, gold, sphalerite and argentopentlandite. Pyrite, marcasite, violarite and goethite also occur but are interpreted as later alteration products. Much of the pyrrhotine-rich mineralization at the base of the intrusion is in the form of blebs and interstitial aggregates with amphiboles, plagioclase feldspar, biotite, chlorite and quartz. Chalcopyrite-rich and nickeline-gersdorffite-rich mineralization occurs above this and immediately below unmineralized diorite in the form of patches, lenticular masses and stringers along joints and fractures.Whole rock and ore analyses and electron microprobe data on the silicates, sulphides and sulpharsenides are presented.The unmineralized diorite has low SiO₂ and high MgO contents compared to typical diorites and relatively high Cr, Ni and Ti trace element values. In the mineralized diorite, platinum-group elements occur in very low concentrations in the pyrrhotineand chalcopyrite-rich assemblages but Pt, Pd and Au show significant enrichment in the nickeline-gersdorffite-rich mineralization.A magmatic origin for the mineralization is proposed rather than formation by hydrothermal solutions or metasomatism.

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Die nickel-kupfer vererzung von Talnotry, Newton Stewart, Schottland

Zusammenfassung Die Nickel-Kupfer Vererzung befindet sich im Kontaktbereich einer Dioritintrusion mit hornfelsdurchdrungenen silurischen und ordovizischen Grauwacken. Die am häufigsten auftretenden Erzmineralien sind Nickelin, Gersdorffit, Pyrrhotin, Pentlandit, und Chalcopyrit mit kleineren Mengen von Molybdenit, Tellurwismuth, Gold, Sphalerit und Argentopentlandit. Weiters treten als spätere Umwandlungsprodukte Pyrit, Markasit, Violarit und Goethit auf. Ein großer Teil der Pyrrhotin-reichen Vererzung am Fuße des eingedrungenen Diorits bildet fleckige, lückenfüllende Aggregate zwischen den Silikatphasen (Amphibol, Plagioklas, Biotit, Chlorit, Quarz). Die Chalcopyrit- und Nickelin-Gersdorffit-reiche Vererzung tritt zwischen dem unvererzten Diorit im Hangenden und der Pyrrhotin-reichen Vererzung im Liegenden als linsige, lappenartige Konzentration und entlang von Fugen und Brücken auf.Vollgesteins-Analysen sowie ausgewählte Erzanalysen und Mikrosondenergebnisse der Silikate, Sulfide und Sulfarsenide liegen vor.Im Unterschied zu den typischen Dioriten zeigt der unvererzte Diorit einen niedrigen SiO₂ und hohen MgO Gehalt und relativ hohe Cr, Ni und Ti Spurenelementwerte. Die Platingruppenelemente sind in den Pyrrhotin- und Chalcopyrit-reichen Vererzungen nur schwach vertreten, jedoch sind Pt, Pd und An in der Gersdorffit-reichen Vererzung stark angereichert.Ein magmatischer Ursprung dieser Vererzung, im Gegensatz zu einer metasomatischen Entstehung oder Bildung aus hydrothermalen Lösungen wird vermutet.

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With 3 Figures     

A statistical method to evaluate homogeneity of structural populations

For any specific rock unit in a discontinuous rock mass, the determination of structural domain boundaries is important because geologic and hydrologic properties vary from one domain to another. A domain can be considered as a structural population characterized by a distinct pattern of structure orientations (i.e., fracture, bedding, or foliation orientations).Boundaries are usually determined by comparing samples of structural data, each of which consists of a Schmidt plot that commonly displays at least 150 poles to fractures. When fracture orientations appear dispersed and random on the plots, visual comparisons are not sufficient to determine whether the samples were obtained from the same structural domain. An appropriate x ² test has been adapted to this situation and is capable of evaluating the homogeneity of structural populations. The method uses a contingency table analysis based on the frequencies of fracture poles that occur in corresponding patches on the Schmidt plots being compared.