Impact of additional surface observation network on short range weather forecast during summer monsoon 2008 over Indian subcontinent

The three dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (3D-Var) is employed in the recently developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Assimilation experiments have been conducted to assess the impact of Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) surface observations (temperature and moisture) on the short range forecast over the Indian region. In this study, two experiments, CNT (without AWS observations) and EXP (with AWS observations) were made for 24-h forecast starting daily at 0000 UTC during July 2008. The impact of assimilation of AWS surface observations were assessed in comparison to the CNT experiment. The spatial distribution of the improvement parameter for temperature, relative humidity and wind speed from one month assimilation experiments demonstrated that for 24-h forecast, AWS observations provide valuable information. Assimilation of AWS observed temperature and relative humidity improved the analysis as well as 24-h forecast. The rainfall prediction has been improved due to the assimilation of AWS data, with the largest improvement seen over the Western Ghat and eastern India.     

Impulse response of a linear diffusion analogy model as a flood frequency probability density function

Abstract

The impulse response of a linear convective-diffusion analogy (LD) model used for flow routing in open channels is proposed as a probability distribution for flood frequency analysis. The flood frequency model has two parameters, which are derived using the methods of moments and maximum likelihood. Also derived are errors in quantiles for these parameter estimation methods. The distribution shows that the two methods are equivalent in terms of producing mean values—the important property in case of unknown true distribution function. The flood frequency model is tested using annual peak discharges for the gauging sections of 39 Polish rivers where the average value of the ratio of the coefficient of skewness to the coefficient of variation equals about 2.52, a value closer to the ratio of the LD model than to the gamma or the lognormal model. The likelihood ratio indicates the preference of the LD over the lognormal for 27 out of 39 cases. It is found that the proposed flood frequency model represents flood frequency characteristics well (measured by the moment ratio) when the LD flood routing model is likely to be the best of all linear flow routing models.     

Overland flow on a diverging surface / Ecoulement superficiel sur une surface divergente

ABSTRACT

Many basins in nature diverge or possess diverging elements. This study formulates a diverging flow model utilizing kinematic wave theory. The kinematic equations are solved using a first order explicit finite difference scheme. The model is tested using data on a number of laboratory basins reported in the literature. A comparison of this model with the plane model shows that they yield different concentration times and hydrographs that differ in shape, depending upon the degree of divergence.     

ACCURACY OF KINEMATIC WAVE AND DIFFUSION WAVE APPROXIMATIONS FOR TIME-INDEPENDENT FLOW WITH MOMENTUM EXCHANGE INCLUDED

Errors in the kinematic wave and diffusion wave approximation for time-independent (or steady-state) cases of channel flow with momentum exchange included were derived for three types of boundary conditions: zero flow at the upstream end, and critical flow depth and zero depth gradient at the downstream end. The diffusion wave approximation was found to be in excellent agreement with the dynamic wave approximation, with errors of less than 1% for KF²₀≥7·5 and up to 12% for KF²₀≤0·75 for the upstream boundary condition of zero discharge and finite depth, where K is the kinematic wave number and F₀ is the Froude number. The kinematic wave approximation was reasonably accurate except at the channel boundaries and for small values of KF²₀ (≤1). The accuracy of these approximations was significantly influenced by the downstream boundary condition both in terms of the error magnitude and the segment of the channel reach for which these approximations would be applicable. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

BIPOLE-DIPOLE FIELD DIFFERENCE—A NEW RESISTIVITY SOUNDING TECHNIQUE*

The method of field differences using two parallel bipole sources is described. The system possesses much greater resolving power and investigating depth than the conventional Schlumberger configuration. Of the two variations, the longitudinal field difference has about two and half times greater depth of investigation than the transverse one. Practical advantage of the present technique over the Schlumberger system in reducing the ambiguity in interpretation due to equivalent layered structures is demonstrated on a theoretical example.     

ON THE DYNAMICAL ASPECTS OF THE MONSOON BOUNDARY LAYER

Characteristic variations in the three forces, viz., pressure gradientforce, Coriolis force and frictional force, in the monsoon boundary layerhave been explored with the help of a one-dimensional model. The windobservations carried out at an inland station during MONTBLEX-90 have beenutilised for this purpose. Variations were observed in the three forcesduring active and break monsoon periods. The height at which the Coriolis andpressure gradient forces showed balance ranged from 360–700 m and500–600 m during break and active periods respectively.