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2007年汛期AREM模式降水预报效果检验分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
过对2007年6~8月AREM模式降水预报做不同时效、不同区域的TS评分对比,比较AREM与T213、JAPAN三个模式降水预报TS评分,并对AREM模式2007年汛期主要降水过程预报效果进行检验分析,从而获得AREM模式2007年汛期降水预报效果和特点,结果表明:(1)从AREM模式不同时效降水预报TS评分对比可知,对长江中下游区域,AREM模式12~36 h预报效果好于0~24 h预报,24~48 h效果相对较差,对华南、华北、东北、西南东部区域的降水,AREM模式预报效果均随时效延长而减弱。(2)由AREM模式对不同区域降水预报TS评分的对比可知,AREM模式(各预报时效)对长江中下游地区各量级降水预报的TS评分均高于全国范围的TS评分,西南东部(各预报时效)小雨(以上)量级TS评分均为各区域最高,但中雨以上各量级TS评分均低于全国范围,其他区域无稳定的预报特性。(3)从AREM、T213、JAPAN对长江中下游地区12~36 h降水预报TS评分对比可知,三个模式小雨(以上)量级降水的TS评分基本相当,对该区域暴雨、大暴雨强降水中心的预报,AREM好于T213,JAPAN相对较差,随量级增加AREM预报优势表现更为明显。(4)对2007年汛期6次个例分析可知,AREM模式对长江中下游尤其是江淮流域的大范围强降水过程预报效果较好,对暴雨、大暴雨中心的预报较T213和JAPAN有明显的优势,但对小范围、局地强降水过程的预报效果不够理想。 相似文献
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BAKHT Shahzad SUN Fengyue WANG Linlin XU Chenghan YE Lina ZHU Xinran FAN Xingzhu 《世界地质(英文版)》2021,24(2):80-88
The Qinggouzi stibnite deposit is located in Huashan Town, Jilin Province, in the northeastern margin of North China Craton(NCC). It is controlled by fault structures, hosted within structurally controlled felsic dykes, predominantly surrounded by phyllite, schist and quartzite. This study presents the results of fluid inclusions studies, intending to determine the source of the fluid responsible for ore-formation, hence exploring its metallogenesis. The aqueous biphase inclusions are identified in the stibnite-bearing quartz veins of the deposit. Moreover, aqueous biphase inclusions are further classified into(1) biphase liquid-rich inclusions(1 a) and(2) biphase gas-rich inclusions(1 b) depending upon liquid to gas ratio trapped within the fluid inclusions. Homogenization temperatures for(1 a) and(1 b) range between 114.8℃ to 422℃ and 128.3℃ to 267.5℃, respectively. 1 a and 1 b have salinities of 0.18% to 16.14% NaCl_(eqv) and 1.22% to 12.88% NaCl_(eqv), and density range from 0.43 to 1.02 g/cm~3 and 0.81 to 0.98 g/cm~3, respectively. Sulfur isotopic analysis indicates δ~(34)S_(V-CDT) from 4.4×10~(-3) to 6.5×10~(-3), with an average of 5.2×10~(-3), whereas H isotopes values on δD_(V-SMOW) standard are-100.8×10~(-3) and-107.5×10~(-3), while O isotopes data on δ~(18)O_(V-SMOW) standard range between 20.1×10~(-3) and 20.4×10~(-3). Fluid inclusions study, combining with sulfur and H-O isotopic data reveal that the ore-forming fluids originated from deep source and were subsequently contaminated by meteoric water. Hydrostatic pressure calculation shows that the minimum and maximum pressures are 11.65 and 42.33 MPa, and relevant depths of deposit are estimated to be 1.16 and 4.23 km. Finally, we inferred that Qinggouzi stibnite deposit is a medium-low temperature, low salinity hydrothermal deposit, which is formed by deep source and later contaminated by meteoric water, and is classified as epizonal deposit in terms of orogenic series. 相似文献
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Preliminary seismic anisotropy in the upper crust of the south segment of Xiaojiang faults and its tectonic implications
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The Xiaojiang faults,striking north-to-south(NS),and the Honghe faults,striking north-to-west(NW),are first-order block boundaries that intersect to form a concentrated stress zone at an acute angle in the southern part of the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block(SYB).It is also a crucial zone for material escaping from the Tibetan Plateau(TP)due to the collision between the Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate.In December 2017,the Institute of Earthquake Forecasting of the China Earthquake Administration(CEA)deployed a linear temporary seismic broadband array,the Honghe-Xiaojiang temporary Seismic Array(HX Array),across first-order block boundaries in the southern SYB.By using the waveform data of small earthquakes recorded by stations in the HX Array across Xiaojiang faults from 2017 to 2019,and by permanent seismic stations of the China National Earthquake Networks from 2012 to 2019,this paper adopts the systematic analysis method of shear-wave splitting(SWS),SAM method,to obtain preliminary results for seismic anisotropy in the upper crust.The study area can be divided into two subzones according to the spatial distribution of the directions of polarization of the fast shear-wave(PFS)at the stations:the northern zone(zone A,where the HX Array is located)and the southern zone(zone B,to the south of the HX Array).The results show that the directions of the PFS at stations in zone A were highly consistent,dominant in the NE direction,correlated with the in-situ principal compressive stress,and were seemingly unaffected by the Xiaojiang faults.The directions of the PFS as recorded at stations in zone B were more complicated,and were dominant in the NS direction parallel to that of the regional principal compressive stress.This suggests the joint influence of complex tectonics and regional stress in this narrow wedge area.By referring to the azimuthal anisotropy derived from seismic ambient noise in the southeast margin of the TP,the NS direction of the PFS in the middle and lower crust,and its EW direction in the upper mantle,this paper concludes that azimuthal anisotropy in the upper crust differed from that in the lower crust in the south segment of Xiaojiang faults,at least beneath the observation area,and azimuthal anisotropy in the crust was different from that in the upper mantle.The results support the pattern of deformation of ductile flow in the lower crust,and the decoupling between the upper and lower crusts as well as that between the crust and the mantle in the study area.The crustal directions of the PFS appeared to be independent of the Xiaojiang faults,suggesting that the influence of the South China block on the SYB passed through the Xiaojiang faults to the Yimen region.The results of this study indicate that anisotropic studies based on data on the dense temporary seismic array can yield clearer tectonic information,and reveal the complex spatial distribution of stress and deformation in the upper crust of the south segment of Xiaojiang faults. 相似文献
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