Research on the Algorithm CN Applied to Prediction of 23 Strong Earthquakes in China

This paper researches TIP before 23 strong earthquakes occurring in the eastern part and the southern and northern zones of the western part of China and their nearby areas in recent decades.The results show that 18 strong earthquakes occurred within the diagnosed TIP.The TIP precaution occupies about 30% of the total space-time domain which we researched,indicating quite good results of intermediate-term prediction of earthquakes.The algorithm CN can thus be used as an intermediate-term prediction method for strong earthquakes.     

Preliminary Study on the Seismicity Trend of the Shanxi Seismic Belt

In this paper,according to the geological structure and the data on seismicity in the Shanxi seismic belt,the tectonic stress field of this belt is numerically imitated by using the finite element method,and by analyzing synthetically the characteristics of seismogeoiogical structure,seismicity and tectonic stress field,the trend of the coming macroseism in the Shanxi seismic belt can be roughly assessed.The main estimate is as follows.From 1993 to 2015,a strong earthquake with Ms=6.2±0.4 may occur in the Shanxi seismic belt,and there are 3 possible locations for earthquake occurrence,if we arrange according to the order of possibility of earthquake occurrence,the location of a coming earthquake would be(1)the region between Huoxian and Hongdong;(2)the region surrounded by Datong,Huairen,Yingxian and Hunyuan,and(3)the region surrounded by eastern Lingqiu to both ends of the Laiyuan fault.     

The CO2 Discharge in the Boundary Fault Areas of the Sichuan-Yunnan Block and Its Sources

A large number of CO2 springs outcrop along the boundary faults of the Sichuan-Yunnan block and in their neighboring areas.These springs are of a roughly similar distribution as the epicenters of strong earthquakes since 1900.This similarity indicates that the CO2 discharges could be directly related to the modern seismic activity in that area.The evidences of stable carbon and oxygen isotopes indicate that an overwhelming majority of the CO2 released from modern active faults is derived from the deep earth crust.There are 2 main mechanisms of CO2 discharge.Modern active faults are able both to produce directly a lot of CO2 due to thermodynamic metamorphism and to provide passages for the CO2 constituent coming from the lower crust or upper mantle.By continuously monitoring the dynamic changes of CO2 discharges,it would be possible to obtain the information of earthquake precursors that reflect the physical and chemical changes of the earthquake sources.     

Olivine-spinel Phase Boundary Rheology, Strength and Deep Seismicity

In this paper,we discuss (1) whether a significant change in dominant creep mechanism will occur at 400 km discontinuity in some subducting slabs as a result of olivine-spinel phase transition;(2) could the result influence phase boundary strength and deep seismicity? Through this study,we noticed that a transition of creep mechanism from dislocation to diffusion (or superplasticity) could occur at the olivine-spinel phase boundary where temperature effect on phase transition dominates over pressure,which will result in a weakening phase boundary.Triggered by this phase transition weakening,a deep strong earthquake might be generated in the relatively strengthening region above the phase boundary so that the phase boundary is naturally the ceasing boundary of deep seismicity.Contrasting to this,the transition of the creep mechanism from dislocation glide to dislocation climb may be common at the phase boundary where pressure effect on phase transition dominates over temperature.In this case,olivine-spin     

Dynamical Implications of Earthquake Modeling Using Stochastic Cellular Automata

Combining stochastic energy import and deterministic energy loss,this paper does digital modeling for earthquake events by using stochastic cellular automata(CA),and derives energy fractal dimension analysis and multifractal analysis for time sequences of "earthquake" events from this model.The preliminary results show that statistical energy-frequency distribution of many events yields to the classic Gutenberg-Richter relation; different energy initial statuses and propagation rules both influence the output of the model.The b value tightly correlates to model parameters.The complexity of earthquake phenomena essentially may be both stochastic and deterministic.     

Statistical Characteristics of Strong Ground Motion Specified by Response Spectrum and Power Spectral Density Function

The statistical characteristics of strong ground motion specified by response spectrum and power spectral density function are studied using 190 strong-motion records of the Haicheng and Tangshan earthquakes in China and 138 earthquakes in the western United States.The response spectrum is normalized by the peak ground acceleration(i.e.,represented as spectral magnification factor),and the power spectral density function is described by the Kanai-Tajimi spectrum.The statistics and dependence of parameters are evaluated,and correlations between the spectral magnification factor or Kanai-Tajimi spectral parameters and the site condition,epicentral distance,or local magnitude are investigated.The statistical characteristics of spectra China and the U.S.A.are compared.Based on the results obtained the values of the statistics on spectral parameters for earthquake engineering applications in China are suggested.     

Essential Features of Tectonic Movement Revealed by Crustal Vertical Deformations in the Mainland of China

Based on the precise reieveling data of more than 260,000 km carried out from 1950 to 1991 in the Chinese mainland,recent crustal vertical movement is studied.By means of some quantitative indices,such as the pattern of crustal vertical movement,the intensity of differential movement,the maximum gradient and its distribution,etc.,the properties of movements are analyzed on a large scale.The results suggest that all the properties have a profound tectonic background of their own and are closely related to the zoning and seismic activity of active subplates.The driving force for the movement comes mainly from the northward push of the India plate acting on the Eurasia plate.The effects of motions of the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates in the east are much less significant.     

Variation of Uplift Velocit y in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Its Occasion and Consequences

The velocity of uplift in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau has been changed in a remarkable sense by the continental collision.In this paper the buoyancy variation,which occurred in the crustal shortening and thickening process,was used to explain the varied velocities.In the initial stage subcrustal material came from anomalous mantle with high temperature,then the density contrast between crust and mantle was small; in turn both the buoyancy and the surface uplift were gentle.When the thickened crust was squeezed into normal mantle in the later stage,the significant buoyancy would cause a rapid uplift.The variation of buoyancy also affected the stress regime around the plateau.     

Research on Algorithm M8 Applying to TIP Prediction of China's Strong Earthquake Cases in the Past Decades

This paper offers a positive research result of TIP before 16 strong earthquakes in North and Southwest China and their nearby areas since 1979 by using improved algorithm M8.The result showed that 14 of them were determined to occur within the times of increased probability.TIP precaution occupies about 37% of the total space-time domain.That means we have made quite good results of intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes.So the method could be used as one of the useful means of the intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes.     

祁连电磁多参数综合观测和地震预报

本文研究了我国首次进行的电磁多参数综合观测资料。主要结果:1.电磁多参数资料丰富,可利用的信息量大;2.测区周围290km范围内的5.0级以上地震前都出现电磁前兆异常;3.地震前地壳中出现电磁前兆的时间要比空中出现的早6——14倍之多。