Two-dimensional landslide dynamic simulation based on a velocity-weakening friction law

Surprisingly, hypermobility (high velocity and long run-out) is a remarkable feature of large landslides and is still poorly understood. In this paper, a velocity-weakening friction law is incorporated into a depth-averaged landslide model for explaining the higher mobility mechanism of landslides. In order to improve the precision of the calculation, a coupled numerical method based on the finite volume method is proposed to solve the model equations. Finally, several numerical tests are performed to verify the stability of the algorithm and reliability of the model. The comparison between numerical results and experimental data indicates that the presented model can predict the movement of landslide accurately. Considering the effect of velocity-weakening friction law, the presented model can better reflect the hypermobility of landslide than the conventional Mohr–Coulomb friction model. This work shows that the application of a universal velocity-weakening friction law is effective in describing the hypermobility of landslide and predicting the extent of landslides.     

Development of efficiently coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical model to predict hydraulic fracture morphology in heavy oil reservoirs

The aim of the study involves examining the effect of heavy oil viscosity on fracture geometry in detail by establishing a heavy oil fracturing model and conventional fracturing model based on thermal–hydraulic–mechanical (THM) coupled theory, Walther viscosity model, and K–D–R temperature model. We consider viscosity and density within the heavy oil fracturing model as functions of pressure and temperature while that as constants within the conventional fracturing model. A heavy oil production well is set as an example to analyze the differences between the two models to account for the thermo-poro-elastic effect. The results show that temperature exhibits the most significant influence on the heavy oil viscosity while the influence of pressure is the least. In addition, a cooling area with a width of 0–1 m and varied length is generated near the fracture. The heavy oil viscosity increases sharply in this area, thereby indicating an area of viscosity increment. The heavy oil viscosity increases faster and is closer to wellbore, and a high viscosity increment reduces the mobility of the heavy oil and prevents the fracturing fluid from entering into the reservoir. The special viscosity distribution results in significant differences in pore pressure, oil saturation, and changing trends between these two models. In the heavy oil reservoir fracturing model, the thermal effect completely exceeds the influence of pore elasticity, and the values of the fracture length, width, and static pressure exceed those calculated in the conventional fracturing model. Thus, a comparison of the measured values indicates that the results obtained by considering viscosity as a function of temperature and pressure are more accurate. Therefore, the results of this study are expected to provide good guidelines for the design of heavy oil fracturing.     

准噶尔盆地东北部侏罗系砂岩型铀矿成矿环境与找矿方向探讨

文章从蚀源区铀源条件、中新生代构造演化条件、侏罗系沉积建造特征及后生蚀变特征等角度分析了准噶尔盆地东北部砂岩型铀矿的区域成矿条件,认为卡拉麦里山的富铀花岗岩体为该区砂岩型铀成矿提供了丰富的铀源,中侏罗统含煤碎屑岩建造为砂岩型铀成矿提供了良好的容矿空间,侏罗纪以来多期次不整合面的发育为含铀含氧水的渗入改造提供了通道及时间,为大规模层间氧化带的发育提供了物质基础。研究结果显示,卡拉麦里山北坡为最有利的砂岩型铀矿找矿部位,其主要找矿目标层位为中侏罗统头屯河组,找矿类型为层间氧化带型。     

A new multipath mitigation method based on adaptive thresholding wavelet denoising and double reference shift strategy

Multipath disturbance is one of the major error sources in high-accuracy positioning for global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Although various methods based on software and hardware strategies have been developed to mitigate this error, they are still limited by different kinds of factors and the effect is not ideal. After analyzing the existing methods, a new single-difference sidereal filtering method, based on adaptive thresholding wavelet denoising and double reference shift strategy (ATDR), is proposed to mitigate multipath effects for static short-baseline GNSS applications. The key idea of the proposed method is the use of both the adaptive thresholding wavelet denoising to extract an accurate multipath correction model from the reference Day and the double reference shift strategy to mitigate multipath for subsequent Day 2 more accurately and efficiently. By applying the introduced adaptive thresholding method, the average improvement rate of the RMS values of the single-difference residuals can reach about 15.82% compared with the constant thresholding method. Moreover, after applying the proposed ATDR method, the 3D positioning precision is improved by about 37.73% for the single epoch mode with 30 s data sampling rate and about 31.22% for the continuous mode with 1 s high sampling rate compared with the original results. Even compared with the constant thresholding single orbital reference (CTSR) method, the improvement percentage is about 33.94% in single epoch mode and about 25.40% in continuous mode for 3D positioning precision, respectively. In conclusion, the results of the two experiments indicate that the proposed ATDR method performs much better than the CTSR method in mitigating multipath for different sampling rates and different processing modes in the measurement domain for GNSS static short-baseline postprocessing applications.     

人类从哪里来？——（4）人类演化与古地理、古环境和古气候变化

详细介绍了8 Ma以来全球气候变化的规律,研究表明地球上主要发生过3次冷气候事件：第一次冷气候事件大约发生在距今7 Ma,一股强烈的干冷气流刮过欧洲大陆,穿越赤道地区直达非洲大陆,使得原始森林开始萎缩,面积的缩小导致古猿与人类发生演化分异;第二次冷气候事件大约发生在距今4.2 Ma,那时干冷气候持续发展,非洲大陆的原始森林进一步萎缩,并逐渐演化为稀树草原,出现了南方猿人和傍人;第三次冷气候事件大约发生在距今2.3 Ma,全球气候变化波动较大,冷-暖气候交替发育,地球上出现了真正意义上的人（人属）,并逐渐演化成现代人。根据目前的研究,人类的起源和演化与古地理、古环境和古气候变化密切相关,人类演化历史大致可分为7个时期：撒海尔猿人—原初猿人时期、地居猿人时期、南方猿人—傍人时期、能人—鲁道夫人时期、匠人—直立人时期、先驱人—海德堡人时期和智人时期。     

基于省区协调发展的GDP预测模型

基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)构建出一个GDP综合预测模型,并且考虑十九大全面建成小康社会与实现共同富裕的精神与国家关于技术、资本、劳动力等方面的区域平衡发展战略调整模型的参数,计算了2016—2050年中国分省的GDP总量与人均GDP,进一步通过计算省区间人均GDP的基尼系数来分析省区协调发展的水平。研究结果表明,在考虑省区协调发展时,各省区在2016—2050年间的GDP总量与人均GDP的差距逐渐缩小,省区间人均GDP的基尼系数将从2015年的0.219下降到2030年的0.176和2050年的0.137,未来区域间发展不均衡的态势在实现经济稳步增长同时可以得到缓解。     

2018年一次罕见早春飑线大风过程演变和机理分析

2018年3月4—5日,华南、江南等地发生了一次大范围强对流过程,发生时间早,落区范围广,多地伴有雷暴大风、冰雹、短时强降水等剧烈对流天气,尤其飑线在江西境内造成了严重大风灾害。基于大气环流和雷达回波发展演变特征,将该次过程分为初始、发展和减弱三个阶段：初始阶段西风槽前西南急流造成的低压倒槽为强对流提供大尺度触发条件;发展阶段对流活动位于槽前暖区中,飑线在江西造成极端大风;入夜后,冷锋南下,对流进入减弱阶段。环境场及对流参数诊断表明江西中北部低层高温高湿,中层干冷,温度垂直递减率大,有利于产生雷暴大风。南昌探空长时间序列分析表明温湿要素气候态异常,与历史同期比,低层明显偏暖偏湿,中层偏干,有利于极端对流天气发生。综合多源观测资料和雷达资料分析中小尺度特征,本次江西飑线过程特点及成因包括：（1）受引导气流和前向传播共同作用,飑线移动速度快。（2）自动站分析显示飑锋后雷暴高压强,与锋前暖低压作用造成强密度流,有利于产生大范围直线型大风;（3）通过对比飑线弓状回波南北段回波结构差异表明,飑线后侧中层干后向入流促使降水粒子相变,剧烈降温形成的强下沉运动(下击暴流)是导致极端大风的主要原因,后部层云区下沉气流增强雷暴高压加之动量下传作用对雷暴大风有增幅作用。     

2005年云南会泽、文山5.3级地震短临预报及再认识

2005年8月5日、8月13日云南会泽、文山分别发生5．3级地震。震前,前兆各学科出现不同程度的异常变化,异常台项达30多项,并呈现非线性上升趋势。据此,震前对这两次地震做出了短临预报。震后对两次地震的震前异常做了进一步分析研究,认为异常主要分布在距离震中20～180km范围内,集中出现在震前2个月。水温异常对发震地点有一定的指示意义。