Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

     

Seasonal variation of atmospheric dimethylsulfide at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean

Daily measurements of atmospheric concentrations of dimethylsulfide (DMS) were carried out for two years in a marine site at remote area: the Amsterdam Island (37°50S–77°31E) located in the southern Indian Ocean. DMS concentrations were also measured in seawater. A seasonal variation is observed for both DMS in the atmosphere and in the sea-surface. The monthly averages of DMS concentrations in the surface coastal seawater and in the atmosphere ranged, respectively, from 0.3 to 2.0 nmol l^-1 and from 1.4 to 11.3 nmol m^-3 (34 to 274 pptv), with the highest values in summer. The monthly variation of sea-to-air flux of DMS from the southern Indian Ocean ranges from 0.7 to 4.4 mol m^-2 d^-1. A factor of 2.3 is observed between summer and winter with mean DMS fluxes of 3.0 and 1.3 mol m^-2 d^-1, respectively.     

Seismic performance of a 3D full‐scale high‐ductile steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting frame—Part II: Test results and analytical validation

This paper presents the results of a multi‐level pseudo‐dynamic seismic test program that was performed to assess the performance of a full‐scale three‐bay, two‐storey steel–concrete composite moment‐resisting frame built with partially encased composite columns and partial‐strength beam‐to‐column joints. The system was designed to develop a ductile response in the joint components of beam‐to‐column joints including flexural yielding of beam end plates and shear yielding of the column web panel zone. The ground motion producing the damageability limit state interstorey drift caused minor damage while the ultimate limit state ground motion level entailed column web panel yielding, connection yielding and plastic hinging at the column base connections. The earthquake level chosen to approach the collapse limit state induced more damage and was accompanied by further column web panel yielding, connection yielding and inelastic phenomena at column base connections without local buckling. During the final quasi‐static cyclic test with stepwise increasing displacement–amplitudes up to an interstorey drift angle of 4.6%, the behaviour was ductile although cracking of beam‐to‐end‐plate welds was observed. Correlations with numerical simulations taking into account the inelastic cyclic response of beam‐to‐column and column base joints are also presented in the paper together. Inelastic static pushover and time history analysis procedures are used to estimate the structural behaviour and overstrength factors of the structural system under study. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of Natural and Anthropogenic Factors on Soils,Soil Water,and Subsoil Water in Kola Peninsula

The concentrations of mobile compounds of S, Cu, and Ni are determined in podzol soils in the Murmansk region taken at different distances from Severonikel Copper–Nickel Plant and their variations are analyzed. The concentrations are found to have an effect on the distribution of these elements in lysimetric and subsoil waters.     

Observations of the upper frequency cutoffs of the auroral kilometric radiation

Intense auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) is being frequently observed with POLRAD from the Auroral Probe (Interball-2). Observations of the abrupt upper frequency cutoffs (UFCs) in the spectra of AKR are reported. The UFCs can be observed at a frequency range from 300 to 700 kHz, corresponding to AKR generation altitudes from approximately 4800 to 2100 km, and are distributed in magnetic local time (MLT) hours similarly to the AKR events, with a maximum at 1 h MLT. The observed frequency extent of the UFCs is 12 kHz, and is often determined by the instrumental resolution (4 kHz). It is suggested that the UFC may be associated with an abrupt switching on of the generation mechanism, when the electron density becomes sufficiently low inside a plasma depletion at an altitude where the ratio of f_pe/f_ce crosses some threshold value. The steepness of the UFCs can imply a non-linear process of generation. The estimated distance of the e-folding field aligned wave amplification is between 3 and 8 km. The UFCs are sometimes, though very seldom (10%), accompanied by narrow band (less than 4 kHz) ridges of radiation observed at the cutoff frequency. They are smoothly drifting in frequncy for several minutes. The power density of radiation in the ridge can be up to 2 orders of magnitude stronger than in the accompanying wide band emission of AKR. The ridge at UFC can imply either energy concentration at the source bottom, or focusing, if specific conditions for the escape of the radiation are assumed.     

Specific features of ice conditions in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait in the winter season of 2005/06

Peculiarities of the ice situation in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait during the cold winter of 2005/06 are considered using a set of satellite images in the visible range, accumulated at the Southern Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography (in Kerch). The ice conditions of the water area over the last years are examined and compared to the climatic data.     

Local geoid determination combining gravity disturbances and GPS/levelling: a case study in the Lake Nasser area, Aswan, Egypt

 The use of GPS for height control in an area with existing levelling data requires the determination of a local geoid and the bias between the local levelling datum and the one implicitly defined when computing the local geoid. If only scarse gravity data are available, the heights of new data may be collected rapidly by determining the ellipsoidal height by GPS and not using orthometric heights. Hence the geoid determination has to be based on gravity disturbances contingently combined with gravity anomalies. Furthermore, existing GPS/levelling data may also be used in the geoid determination if a suitable general gravity field modelling method (such as least-squares collocation, LSC) is applied. A comparison has been made in the Aswan Dam area between geoids determined using fast Fourier transform (FFT) with gravity disturbances exclusively and LSC using only the gravity disturbances and the disturbances combined with GPS/levelling data. The EGM96 spherical harmonic model was in all cases used in a remove–restore mode. A total of 198 gravity disturbances spaced approximately 3 km apart were used, as well as 35 GPS/levelling points in the vicinity and on the Aswan Dam. No data on the Nasser Lake were available. This gave difficulties when using FFT, which requires the use of gridded data. When using exclusively the gravity disturbances, the agreement between the GPS/levelling data were 0.71 ± 0.17 m for FFT and 0.63 ± 0.15 for LSC. When combining gravity disturbances and GPS/levelling, the LSC error estimate was ±0.10 m. In the latter case two bias parameters had to be introduced to account for a possible levelling datum difference between the levelling on the dam and that on the adjacent roads. Received: 14 August 2000 / Accepted: 28 February 2001     

Hydrostatic-system palsas at Toolik lake,Alaska: Field observations and simulation

Stratigraphic and chemical data from the ice core of an ‘anthropogenic palsa’ at Toolik Lake, Alaska, indicate that the mound formed as a consequence of hydrostatic pressure developed in an isolated hydrologic system within the active layer. Survey data for five palsas over a three-year period suggest that growth was essentially complete at the time of the initial survey; a net decrease of summit elevation is apparent in all five mounds, but complete degradation of the palsas would require several decades at observed rates. Because accurate field measurements of thermal and hydrologic evolution in such features are extremely difficult, simulation of the environmental conditions and events involved in palsa growth is an important supplement to field observation. Both analytic and finite-element models yield results that are in substantial agreement with inferences drawn from observational data.     

Geomorphic effects of rural-to-urban land use conversion on three streams in the Central Redbed Plains of Oklahoma

This research evaluates the impact of rural-to-urban land use conversion on channel morphology and riparian vegetation for three streams in the Central Redbed Plains geomorphic province (central Great Plains ecoregion) of Oklahoma. The Deep Fork Creek watershed is largely urbanized; the Skeleton Creek watershed is largely rural; and the Stillwater Creek watershed is experiencing a rapid transition from rural to urban land cover. Each channel was divided into reaches based on tributary junctions, sinuosity, and slope. Field surveys were conducted at transects in a total of 90 reaches, including measurements of channel units, channel cross-section at bankfull stage, and riparian vegetation. Historical aerial photographs were available for only Stillwater Creek watershed, which were used to document land cover in this watershed, especially changes in the extent of urban areas (impervious cover).The three streams have very low gradients (< 0.001), width-to-depth ratios < 10, and cohesive channel banks, but have incised into red Permian shales and sandstone. The riparian vegetation is dominated by cottonwoods, ash, and elm trees that provide a dense root mat on stream banks where the riparian vegetation is intact. Channels increased in width and depth in the downstream direction as is normally expected, but the substrate materials and channel units remained unchanged. Statistical analyses demonstrated that urbanization did not explain spatial patterns of changes in any variables. These three channels in the central Redbed Plains are responding as flumes during peak flows, funneling runoff and the wash-load sediment downstream in major runoff events without any effect on channel dimensions. Therefore, local geological conditions (similar bedrock, cohesive substrates and similar riparian vegetation) are mitigating the effects of urbanization.     

Spatial Analysis Techniques as Successful Mineral-Potential Mapping Tools for Orogenic Gold Deposits in the Northern Fennoscandian Shield,Finland

Geoscientific Information Systems (GIS) provide tools to quantitatively analyze and integrate spatially referenced information from geological, geophysical, and geochemical surveys for decision-making processes. Excellent coverage of well-documented, precise and good quality data enables testing of variable exploration models in an efficient and cost effective way with GIS tools. Digital geoscientific data from the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) are being used widely as spatial evidence in exploration targeting, that is ranking areas based on their exploration importance. In the last few years, spatial analysis techniques including weights-of-evidence, logistic regression, and fuzzy logic, have been increasingly used in GTK’s mineral exploration and geological mapping projects. Special emphasis has been put into the exploration for gold because of the excellent data coverage within the prospective volcanic belts and because of the increased activity in gold exploration in Finland during recent years. In this paper, we describe some successful case histories of using the weights-of-evidence method for the Au-potential mapping. These projects have shown that, by using spatial modeling techniques, exploration targets can be generated by quantitatively analyzing extensive amounts of data from various sources and to rank these target areas based on their exploration potential.