Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Observational Selection of Comet Discoveries

The distribution of perihelion distances of nearly periodic comets was studied using different assumptions about comet discovery probabilities. It was shown that the concentration of perihelia at small heliocentric distances cannot be explained solely by the influence of visibility conditions.     

Grain boundary diffusion in enstatite

We have investigated grain boundary diffusion rates in enstatite by heating single crystals of quartz packed in powdered San Carlos olivine (Mg_0.90Fe_0.10)₂SiO₄ at controlled oxygen fugacities in the range 10^?5.7 to 10^?8.7?atm and temperatures from 1350° to 1450?°C for times from 5 to 100?h at 1?atm total pressure. Following the experiments, the thickness of the coherent polycrystalline reaction rim of pyroxene that had formed between the quartz and olivine was measured using backscatter scanning imaging in the electron microprobe. Quantitative microprobe analysis indicated that the composition of this reaction phase is (Mg_0.92Fe_0.08)₂Si₂O₆. The rate of growth of the pyroxene increases with increasing temperature, is independent of the oxygen fugacity, and is consistent with a parabolic rate law, indicating that the growth rate is controlled by ionic diffusion through the pyroxene rim. Microstructural observations and platinum marker experiments suggest that the reaction phase is formed at the olivine-pyroxene interface, and is therefore controlled by the diffusion of silicon and oxygen. The parabolic rate constants determined from the experiments were analyzed in terms of the oxide activity gradient across the rim to yield mean effective diffusivities for the rate-limiting ionic species, assuming bulk transport through the pyroxene layer. These effective diffusivities are faster than the lattice diffusivities for the slowest species (silicon) calculated from creep experiments, but slower than measured lattice diffusivities for oxygen in enstatite. Thus, silicon grain boundary diffusion is most likely to be the rate-limiting process in the growth of the pyroxene rims. Also, as oxygen transport through the pyroxene rims must be faster than silicon transport, diffusion of oxygen along the grain boundaries must be faster than through the lattice. The grain boundary diffusivity for silicon in orthopyroxenite is then given by D¯gbSiδ=(3.3±3.0)×10^?9f0.0O₂e^?400±65/RT?m³s^?1, where the activation energy for diffusion is in kJ/mol, and δ is the grain boundary width in m. Calculated growth rates for enstatite under these conditions are significantly slower than predicted by an extrapolation from similar experiments performed at 1000?°C under high pressure (hydrous) conditions by Yund and Tullis (1992), perhaps due to water-enhancement of diffusion in their experiments.     

An experimental study in forming a long synthetic aperture at sea

The testing of a synthetic aperture technique, the ETAM algorithm, is extended and its performance for CW pseudorandom signals and broadband ship noise is examined. The results show the limitations of the technique and are of special interest for operational systems development. In the CW experiments, the transmitted signal was generated with high temporal coherence, and loss of the spatial and temporal coherence of the received signal was introduced only by the medium and the stability of the towed array. In the experiments that included the pseudorandom signal and the ship noise, the temporal coherence of the transmitted signals was deliberately chosen to be poor in order to study the effects and the performance of this algorithm with broadband signals. The related experimental results show that for received signals, which have their segments over the synthesizing period highly cross-correlated, a synthetic aperture array gain was achieved that corresponds to the length of an equivalent fully populated array     

A techno-economic comparison of power systems for autonomousunderwater vehicles

This paper compares lead-acid batteries, sodium-sulfur batteries, solid polymer fuel cells and closed-cycle diesel engines for autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) applications. The service is described in terms of a parametric mission and life cycle. A generic AUV is used as a basis for comparison. Power systems are evaluated by two criteria: (1) submerged endurance capability and (2) life cycle cost. This study determines categories of service for which each power system is preferred. The solid polymer fuel cell can provide greater submerged endurance than other power systems examined. For extremely long duration AUV missions, the fuel cell is the required system, indicating a possible market niche for today's fuel cell technology. Considering cost projections for each power system, the results also show that the SPFC can become cost-competitive with conventional technologies, particularly for services characterized by high levels of utilization     

Multiple-source localization using GPS technology and receivedarrival time structure analysis in an air-deployed system

An efficient and robust method has been developed to locate multiple impulsive sources in an ocean environment. Global position system (GPS) receivers were installed on sonobuoys to obtain their locations within a few meters of accuracy. A sonobuoy field was deployed in a ring-type pattern. Charges were then set off at arbitrary locations within the ring, High-resolution plots were used to obtain direct path and/or first bottom bounce arrivals on each buoy. A model grid of arrival times was constructed, corresponding to the dimensions of the buoy field. A ray model previously developed here at the Applied Research Laboratories at the University of Texas at Austin (ARL:UT) was used to obtain model travel times. The minimum value of the least-square-type error between the real arrival times and the modeled travel times resulted in an unambiguous location of the source, within the limits of the grid spacing chosen. This value was calculated by picking one receiver as the reference and then summing the timing errors of the remaining receivers relative to the reference. Successive iterations with finer grid spacings result in source localization within the accuracy of the buoy locations. The localization routine was extended by allowing permutations of the pulse arrivals on each buoy to account for multiple sources closely separated in time and/or space. An automated correlation technique is presented as an alternative to the leading edge-detection method used here for obtaining relative arrival times. Two proof-of-concept experiments were performed and some results of data obtained at Lake Travis and the Gulf of Mexico are presented     

Parallax distortion by the weak microlensing effect

Parallax measurements allow distances to celestial objects to be determined. Together with measurements of their position on the celestial sphere, they give a full three-dimensional picture of the location of the objects relative to the observer. The distortion of the parallax value of a distant source affected by weak microlensing is considered. This means that the weak microlensing leads to distortion of the distance scale. The gravitational deflection causes a retrograde apparent motion of the image, which is revealed as a negative parallax. It is shown that the distortions may significantly change the parallax values when they amount to several microseconds of arc. In particular, at this level many measured values of parallaxes should be negative.     

Trace-element contents and cathodoluminescence of “trapiche” rubies from Mong Hsu, Myanmar (Burma): geological significance

Summary ?Mong Hsu rubies of the “trapiche” type are sporadically seen in the gem market. However, they have never been described in the field. The study of the nature of solid inclusions, the variation of trace-element contents, as well as the cathodoluminescence behaviour of six “trapiche” rubies permit the conclusion that these rubies crystallised in the same geological environment (marble-type deposit) as the normal rubies from Mong Hsu: (1) Cr and V are the main chromophorous elements in both ruby types; they act, together with Ti, as activators or quenchers for cathodoluminescence; (2) calcite, dolomite, rutile, mica, diaspore, apatite, chlorite, and feldspar are solid inclusions found in both ruby types; (3) the presence of bastn?site in trapiche ruby and fluorite in non-trapiche ruby indicates the circulation of F-bearing fluids during ruby deposition; (4) the distribution of trace-element contents in the crystal is similar for both ruby types. In the Cr₂O₃ vs. Fe₂O₃ and Cr₂O₃ vs. Fe₂O₃/TiO₂ diagrams, the population fields of Mong Hsu “trapiche” and non-“trapiche” rubies overlap. They are distinct from those of rubies and sapphires hosted in basalts from South-east Asia. Received October 30, 2001; revised version accepted March 25, 2002     

Spatial and temporal variations of solar coronal loops

Skylab EUV observations of an active region near the solar limb were analyzed. Both cool (T < 10⁶ K) and hot (T > 10⁶ K) loops were observed in this region. For the hot loops the observed intensity variations were small, typically a few percent over a period of 30 min. The cool loops exhibited stronger variations, sometimes appearing and disappearing in 5 to 10 min. Most of the cool material observed in the loops appeared to be caused by the downward flow of coronal rain and by the upward ejection of chromospheric material in surges. The frequent EUV brightenings observed near the loop footpoints appear to have been produced by both in situ transient energy releases (e.g. subflares) and the infall/impact of coronal rain. The physical conditions in the loops (temperatures, densities, radiative and conducting cooling rates, cooling times) were determined. The mean energy required to balance the radiative and conductive cooling of the hot loops is approximately 3 × 10^–3 erg cm^–3 s^–1. One coronal heating mechanism that can account for the observed behavior of the EUV emission from McMath region 12634 is heating by the dissipation of fast mode MHD waves.