Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection,streamflow forecasting and interannual variability

Abstract

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been linked to climate anomalies throughout the world. This paper presents an overview of global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection and identifies regions where the relationship may be exploited to forecast streamflow several months ahead. The teleconnection is investigated by fitting a first harmonic to 24-month El Niño streamflow composites from 581 catchments worldwide and the potential for forecasting is investigated by calculating the lag correlation between streamflow and two indicators of ENSO. The analyses indicate clear ENSO-streamflow teleconnections in many catchments, some of which are consistent across large geographical regions. Strong and regionally consistent ENSO-streamflow teleconnections are identified in Australia and New Zealand, South and Central America, and weaker signals are identified in some parts of Africa and North America. The results suggest that the ENSO-streamflow relationship and the serial correlation in streamflow can be used to successfully forecast streamflow. The streamflow forecasts can be used to help manage water resources, particularly in systems with high interannual variability in Australia, southern and drier parts of Africa and some areas of North America.     

Seismicity of the northern part of Russian plate and its glaciostatic nature

The comparison of seismological materials with the front boundary of the latest continental glaciation has shown that all revealed really tectonic earthquakes occur exclusively in the occurrence area of a thick cover of this glaciation. The thickness of the glacier at a distance of about 50–100 km from its front could have reached 1 km, and the amplitude of glacioisostatic lowering and subsequent uplifts could have reached 0.3 km. The total amplitude of these movements, which were taking place during 20 thousand years, is comparable with the amplitudes of vertical neotectonic movements, which were taking place during 35–37 million years and on the average were three orders of magnitude more intense than neotectonic movements. With such amplitudes and speeds of vertical glacioisostatic movements, it looks quite plausible that the buried rupture zones could be revived recently (including in Holocene) with block movements of crystalline basement with an amplitude of a few tens of meters. This explains the localization of modern seismicity, which is a hazard to construction, within the occurrence domain of the latest glacial shield.     

Basement structure and sedimentary cover seismostratigraphy in the northern part of the Japan Basin in the region of the Tarasov Rise (Sea of Japan)

The results of continuous seismic profiling thermodynamics performed in the northern part of the Japan Basin in the region of the Tarasov Rise and the data of a micropaleontological examination of the diatom remains encountered in the sediment samples from the rise and continental slope are presented. In the area studied, the topography of the acoustic basement features a vast rise (plateau) buried under the sedimentary cover outlined by the depth contour 5.8 s. The plateau has a relatively smooth top surface crossed by a series of rises of the acoustic basement. The two largest rises are represented by the ridges of the Tarasov Rise. The plateau is separated from the continental slope by a depression in the acoustic basement with a depth up to 6.8 s. From the end of the Middle Miocene up to the beginning of the Paleocene, the region of the plateau represented an area of active volcanism; it coincided in time with the stage of subsidence of the floor of the acoustic basement depression. At the end of the Late Miocene, the ridges of the Tarasov Rise started to sink. In the Pliocene, this process accelerated, and, at the beginning of the Pleistocene, it stopped. In the Middle Miocene-Early Pleistocene time, the portion of the continental slope adjacent to the plateau remained stable and suffered no significant vertical movements.     

Analysis of the intensities and profiles of the spectral line Mg xii 8.42 Å in the solar X-ray spectrum

High resolution profiles of the Mg xii 8.42 Å line in the solar X-ray spectrum were recorded from the Intercosmos 7 satellite. The Mg xii line intensity provides a sensitive indicator of the hot plasma content (T ? 3 × 10⁶ K) in coronal condensations and X-ray flare volumes. The ratio of the line intensity to the intensity of the adjacent continuum has been used to compute approximate thermal models of the emitting regions. For all the investigated coronal condensations the temperature distribution of plasma has been found to be a function monotonically decreasing with temperature. But for some X-ray bursts there occurred a distinct excess of the hot plasma of temperature between 6–10 × 10⁶K. FWHM values of the Mg xii line profiles have been used to estimate ion temperature in the emitting regions.     

Integration of remote sensing data into hydrological models for reservoir management

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present the methodology set up to derive catchment soil moisture from Earth Observation (EO) data using microwave spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images from ERS satellites and to study the improvements brought about by an assimilation of this information into hydrological models. The methodology used to derive EO data is based on the appropriate selection of land cover types for which the radar signal is mainly sensitive to soil moisture variations. Then a hydrological model is chosen, which can take advantage of the new information brought by remote sensing. The assimilation of soil moisture deduced from EO data into hydrological models is based principally on model parameter updating. The main assumption of this method is that the better the model simulates the current hydrological system, the better the following forecast will be. Another methodology used is a sequential one based on Kalman filtering. These methods have been put forward for use in the European AIMWATER project on the Seine catchment upstream of Paris (France) where dams are operated to alleviate floods in the Paris area.     

Diagnostic monitoring of a changing environment: an alternative UK perspective

Adaptive management of the marine environment requires an understanding of the complex interactions within it. Establishing levels of natural variability within and between marine ecosystems is a necessary prerequisite to this process and requires a monitoring programme which takes account of the issues of time, space and scale. In this paper, we argue that an ecosystem approach to managing the marine environment should take direct account of climate change indicators at a regional level if it is to cope with the unprecedented change expected as a result of human impacts on the earth climate system. We discuss the purpose of environmental monitoring and the importance of maintaining long-term time series. Recommendations are made on the use of these data in conjunction with modern extrapolation and integration tools (e.g. ecosystem models, remote sensing) to provide a diagnostic approach to the management of marine ecosystems, based on adaptive indicators and dynamic baselines.     

Lower Miocene sediments of central and western Ciscaucasia

The composition, structure, and geochemical properties of the thickest, relatively deep-water Lower Miocene sediments developed in western Ciscaucasia are considered. Of particular interest are materials from the Kuban superdeep borehole SG-12000 that recovered the uppermost layers of the Maikop Group at 3148–3961 m in the central Indol-Kuban Trough west of Krasnodar. However, the borehole did not penetrate the whole Lower Miocene section of the Maikop Group. Therefore, characteristics of the Maikop Group are supplemented with new materials from several other boreholes drilled in the eastern Kuban region. Thus, the typical (reference) Lower Miocene section of central and western Ciscaucasia has been sufficiently well described.     

Fine structures in solar microwave flares

The pulsed electron acceleration and release from the energy release volume in solar flares implies that there is a possibility of interaction between a group of electrons reflected from the foot of a bipolar flux tube with a newly injected beam. It is shown that interaction can lead to the stoppage of the synchrotron maser instability caused by the loss cone distribution and hence can produce further millisecond fine structures in the solar microwave bursts.     

Observation of temporal and spatial variations in the Fe/O charge composition of the solar particle event of 4 July, 1974

Comprehensive measurements of the temporal variations of the Z 6 charge composition in the 4 July 1974 solar event made with experiments aboard IMP-7 and 8 show that large variations in the charge composition occur in three-hour-averaged intensities. Hourly averaged fluxes show variations as large as factors of 3 to 4 from one hour to the next and 3 hour averages show nearly a factor of 10 peak to minimum over the event. The precision of the measurements are limited by counting statistics of the Fe-group channel. Iron to oxygen variations are established by both rate channel and pulse height analysis techniques. Comparison of measurements from IMP-7 and 8, separated by about 70 R _E shows that, while significant differences in composition and intensity exist for brief periods, the gross compositional variations are reproduced well at both spacecraft. These observations provide particularly stringent conditions for theories of the acceleration, release, and propagation of solar energetic particles.