Snowpack disrupts relationship between young water fraction and isotope amplitude ratio; approximately one fifth of mountain streamflow less than one year old

Previous “fraction of young water” (F_yw) estimates based on relative annual isotopic amplitudes in precipitation (A_p) and streamflow (A_s) produced low F_yw values in mountain catchments, which is contrary to extensive research that reports rapid water transmission in mountains. This study investigated this discrepancy by testing the effect of snow accumulation on the model that underpins the F_yw method. A Monte-Carlo analysis of simulations for 20,000 randomly-generated catchment model configurations used 10 years of precipitation inputs for the Upper Elbow River catchment in the Rocky Mountains (Alberta, Canada) to model discharge with and without snowpack storage of winter precipitation. Neither direct nor modified precipitation input produced a 1:1 relationship between A_s/A_p and F_yw, undermining the applicability of the original F_yw method in mountain watersheds with large seasonal snow accumulation. With snowpack-modified input a given A_s/A_p ratio corresponds to a range of F_yw values, which can still provide semi-quantitative information. In the small (435 km²) Elbow River catchment a F_yw range of 7–23% supports previous findings of rapid transmission in mountain catchments. Further analysis showed that the improved discharge prediction (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.9) correlates with higher F_yw values and demonstrated that the interannual shifts in δ¹⁸O can be used to estimate of new water (<1 year) fraction in winter streamflow, and the estimate of 20% for the Elbow River further supports rapid transmission in mountain catchments.     

Understanding coastal wetland hydrology with a new regional‐scale,process‐based hydrological model

Coastal wetlands represent an ecotone between ocean and terrestrial ecosystems, providing important services, including flood mitigation, fresh water supply, erosion control, carbon sequestration, and wildlife habitat. The environmental setting of a wetland and the hydrological connectivity between a wetland and adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems together determine wetland hydrology. Yet little is known about regional‐scale hydrological interactions among uplands, coastal wetlands, and coastal processes, such as tides, sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion, which together control the dynamics of wetland hydrology. This study presents a new regional‐scale, physically based, distributed wetland hydrological model, PIHM‐Wetland, which integrates the surface and subsurface hydrology with coastal processes and accounts for the influence of wetland inundation on energy budgets and evapotranspiration (ET). The model was validated using in situ hydro‐meteorological measurements and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET data for a forested and herbaceous wetland in North Carolina, USA, which confirmed that the model accurately represents the major wetland hydrological behaviours. Modelling results indicate that topographic gradient is a primary control of groundwater flow direction in adjacent uplands. However, seasonal climate patterns become the dominant control of groundwater flow at lower coastal plain and land–ocean interface. We found that coastal processes largely influence groundwater table (GWT) dynamics in the coastal zone, 300 to 800 m from the coastline in our study area. Among all the coastal processes, tides are the dominant control on GWT variation. Because of inundation, forested and herbaceous wetlands absorb an additional 6% and 10%, respectively, of shortwave radiation annually, resulting in a significant increase in ET. Inundation alters ET partitioning through canopy evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation, the effect of which is stronger in cool seasons than in warm seasons. The PIHM‐Wetland model provides a new tool that improves the understanding of wetland hydrological processes on a regional scale. Insights from this modelling study provide benchmarks for future research on the effects of sea level rise and climate change on coastal wetland functions and services.     

The geology of the Caribbean crust, I: Beata Ridge

Igneous and sedimentary rocks recently dredged and cored from the steep western slope of the Beata Ridge provide important data on the composition, age and details of crustal evolution of the rock-types responsible for recorded compressional wave velocities. The sedimentary rock samples also provide new data concerning the age and depositional environment of overlying sedimentary reflectors.

The deepest (4,100 m) dredge haul contains deeply weathered coarsegrained igneous rocks. Nine other hauls, distributed between 4,000–2,300 m, contain holocrystalline basalts and diabases. The compressional wave velocity of air-dried samples of two holocrystalline basalts and a diabase at atmospheric pressure ranges from 5.0–5.6 km/sec. Sampling in depths less than 2,300 m shows that the crest of the Beata Ridge is capped by Quaternary deposits underlain by consolidated carbonate sediment of at least Middle Eocene age. The faunal assemblages of the Mid-Eocene samples are the product of normal accumulation in a shallow shelf environment.

The dredging results coupled with previously published seismic reflection and refraction data, suggest that the 5.4–5.7 km/sec crust is composed of a layer of basalt and diabase which outcrops below 2,300 m, on a fault-generated escarpment that was produced in the Late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary. The shallow shelf samples of Eocene age indicate that the Beata Ridge was higher in the Early Tertiary and has subsided subsequently to its present depth.     

Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.     

Climatic drivers of tree growth at tree line in Southwest Yukon change over time and vary between landscapes

Growth of trees at their altitudinal and latitudinal range limits is expected to increase as climate warms, but trees often exhibit unexplained spatial and temporal variation in climate-growth responses, particularly in alpine regions. Until this variability is explained, predictions of future tree growth are unlikely to be accurate. We sampled Picea glauca (white spruce) growing at forest and tree line on north and south aspects in two mountain ranges of southwest Yukon to determine how and why ring-width patterns vary between topographic settings, and over time. We used multivariate statistical analysis to characterize variation in ring-width patterns between topographic factors and time periods, and calculated correlations between ring-width indices and climate variables to explain this variation. Ring-width patterns varied more between mountain ranges than elevations or aspects, particularly in recent decades when ring-widths increased in one mountain range but not the other. Growth responses to summer temperature were notably weaker during warmer time periods, but growth was not positively correlated to summer precipitation, suggesting trees may not be suffering from temperature-induced drought stress. Rather, ring-width indices began responding positively to spring snow depth after 1976. We conclude that tree growth is unlikely to increase in synchrony with rising air temperatures across subarctic tree lines in southwest Yukon. Instead, they may decline in areas that are prone to thin snowpacks or rapid spring runoff due to the negative influence warming springs will have on snow depth and, consequently, early growing season soil moisture.     

Harzburgite to lherzolite and back again: metasomatic processes in ultramafic xenoliths from the Wesselton kimberlite, Kimberley, South Africa

Garnets from phlogopite harzburgite xenoliths from the Wesselton kimberlite show zoning from low-Ca harzburgitic cores to rims with lherzolitic Ca-Cr relations. Garnet cores are depleted in Y and HREE, but have sinuous REE patterns enriched in the MREE. Rimwards increase in Ca and decrease in Cr and Mg is accompanied by increases in Zr, Y, Ti and HREE. Secondary replacement rims on some garnets consist of garnet with low Ca and Cr, but high Mg, Ti and HREE. The zoning, and the secondary replacement rims, are attributed to different stages of a metasomatic process that has converted harzburgite to lherzolite, at temperatures near 1000 °C. Modelling of zoning profiles suggests that the process can be divided into three parts: (a) Inwards diffusion of Ca, Zr and Y over periods of 10,000–30,000 years, from a fluid depleted in Ti, Ga and Y; (b) formation of overgrowths high in Ca, Zr, Y and Ti, followed by annealing over periods of several thousand years; (c) formation of secondary reaction rims of low-Ca garnet, on very short timescales prior to eruption. The sinuous REE patterns of the garnet cores are regarded as “primary” features reflecting an ancient metasomatic event superimposed on a depleted protolith. The high Zr/Y, Zr/Ti and Zr/Ca of the fluids corresponding to stage (a) are ascribed to the presence of phlogopite and garnet in the matrix near the fluid source (presumed to be a melt, possibly a kimberlite precursor), leading to the development of concentration fronts in the percolating fluid. The overgrowths of stage (b) appear to coincide with the precipitation of phlogopite in the rock. The low Ca of the fluid responsible for the secondary replacement rims of stage (c) may reflect the late precipitation of clinopyroxene or Ca-carbonate as part of the metasomatic assemblage. These processes have significantly modified the modal, major- and trace-element composition of the mantle volume sampled by the Wesselton kimberlite, within <1 Ma of eruption. Recognition of such effects and their distribution in time and space is essential to understanding of the evolution of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle. Received: 11 February 1998 / Accepted: 24 June 1998     

Reproduction of secondary data in projection pursuit transformation

A challenge when working with multivariate data in a geostatistical context is that the data are rarely Gaussian. Multivariate distributions may include nonlinear features, clustering, long tails, functional boundaries, spikes, and heteroskedasticity. Multivariate transformations account for such features so that they are reproduced in geostatistical models. Projection pursuit as developed for high dimensional data exploration can also be used to transform a multivariate distribution into a multivariate Gaussian distribution with an identity covariance matrix. Its application within a geostatistical modeling context is called the projection pursuit multivariate transform (PPMT). An approach to incorporate exhaustive secondary variables in the PPMT is introduced. With this approach the PPMT can incorporate any number of secondary variables with any number of primary variables. A necessary alteration to the approach to make this numerically practical was the implementation of a continuous probability estimator that relies on Bernstein polynomials for the transformation that takes place in the projections. Stopping criteria were updated to incorporate a bootstrap t test that compares data sampled from a multivariate Gaussian distribution with the data undergoing transformation.     

Effect of seasonal flushing on nutrient export characteristics of an urbanizing,remote, ungauged coastal catchment

Urbanization is a primary driver of nutrient export in coastal catchments; however, estimating the rate of export from urbanizing, remote and ungauged communities with episodic rainfall characteristics has rarely been reported in tropical and subtropical areas. In this study, the coastal catchment of Roebuck Bay near Broome, northwestern Australia, was instrumented to elucidate the effect of seasonal flushing on nutrient export. A cost-effective framework involving temporary gauging and community participation led to a quantitative estimate of surface hydrology and nutrient dynamics from this urbanizing, remote and ungauged catchment. The contribution of nutrient export was larger from the older Broome town site sub-catchments compared to sub-catchments that have been progressively urbanized since 2000. A distinctive seasonal first flush phenomenon, with an initial 30% of runoff volume containing 40–70% of the nutrient load was a key feature. This indicates there are opportunities for storm-water management to minimize impacts through adopting water-sensitive urban design principles.     

Method for estimating available groundwater volume of small coral islands

We present a simple modelling method to estimate the volume of available groundwater in the freshwater lens of atoll islands under steady-state conditions. Model inputs include annual rainfall depth, island width for cross-sections along the length of the island, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and depth to the contact between the upper sand aquifer and the lower limestone aquifer. The methodology is tested for nine islands of varying size in the Maldives and Micronesia. Sensitivity analysis indicates that lens volume on large islands typically is governed by the depth to the discontinuity, whereas lens volume for smaller islands is governed by rainfall rate and hydraulic conductivity. Volume curves, which relate lens volume to lens thickness, are developed for each of the nine islands and for three generic island shapes to allow rapid estimation of lens volume given field-estimated lens thickness. The methods presented in this study can be used for any small atoll island.     

Using Diurnal Temperature Signals to Infer Vertical Groundwater‐Surface Water Exchange

Heat is a powerful tracer to quantify fluid exchange between surface water and groundwater. Temperature time series can be used to estimate pore water fluid flux, and techniques can be employed to extend these estimates to produce detailed plan‐view flux maps. Key advantages of heat tracing include cost‐effective sensors and ease of data collection and interpretation, without the need for expensive and time‐consuming laboratory analyses or induced tracers. While the collection of temperature data in saturated sediments is relatively straightforward, several factors influence the reliability of flux estimates that are based on time series analysis (diurnal signals) of recorded temperatures. Sensor resolution and deployment are particularly important in obtaining robust flux estimates in upwelling conditions. Also, processing temperature time series data involves a sequence of complex steps, including filtering temperature signals, selection of appropriate thermal parameters, and selection of the optimal analytical solution for modeling. This review provides a synthesis of heat tracing using diurnal temperature oscillations, including details on optimal sensor selection and deployment, data processing, model parameterization, and an overview of computing tools available. Recent advances in diurnal temperature methods also provide the opportunity to determine local saturated thermal diffusivity, which can improve the accuracy of fluid flux modeling and sensor spacing, which is related to streambed scour and deposition. These parameters can also be used to determine the reliability of flux estimates from the use of heat as a tracer.