Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.     

Alternative water management options to reduce vulnerability for climate change in the Netherlands

Urbanization, land subsidence and sea level rise will increase vulnerability of the urbanized low-lying areas in the western part of the Netherlands. In this article possibilities are explored to reduce vulnerability of these areas by implementing alternative water management options. Two main water management fields are distinguished, water supply and flood control. A four-component vulnerability framework is presented that includes threshold capacity, coping capacity, recovery capacity, and adaptive capacity. By using the vulnerability framework it is shown that current water supply and flood control strategies in the Netherlands focus on increasing threshold capacity by constructing higher and stronger dikes, improved water storage and delivery infrastructure. A complete vulnerability decreasing strategy requires measures that include all four capacities. Flood damage reduction, backup water supply systems and emergency plans are measures that can contribute to increasing coping capacity. Recovery capacity can be increased by multi-source water supply, insurance, or establishing disaster funds. Adaptive capacity can be developed by starting experiments with new modes of water supply and urbanization. Including all four components of the vulnerability framework enables better understanding of water and climate related vulnerability of urban areas and enables developing more complete water management strategies to reduce vulnerability.     

Excitation of ion waves by charged dust beams in ionospheric aerosol release experiments

Ion waves excited by charged dust beams streaming across or along the geomagnetic field in the ionosphere may be generated by plasma instabilities during aerosol release experiments. The injection speed of the dust and gas is comparable to or larger than the ion thermal speed in the background plasma. The dust grains can get charged by plasma collection from the ambient ionosphere, and can thus act as a charged beam that excites instabilities in the background plasma. The theory is applied to relatively early time scales of the order of in the dust-gas cloud expansion, with wave frequencies that are larger than the ion gyrofrequency, and collisions with neutrals are included.     

The Central-Western Mediterranean: Anomalous igneous activity in an anomalous collisional tectonic setting

The central-western Mediterranean area is a key region for understanding the complex interaction between igneous activity and tectonics. In this review, the specific geochemical character of several ‘subduction-related’ Cenozoic igneous provinces are described with a view to identifying the processes responsible for the modifications of their sources. Different petrogenetic models are reviewed in the light of competing geological and geodynamic scenarios proposed in the literature.Plutonic rocks occur almost exclusively in the Eocene–Oligocene Periadriatic Province of the Alps while relatively minor plutonic bodies (mostly Miocene in age) crop out in N Morocco, S Spain and N Algeria. Igneous activity is otherwise confined to lava flows and dykes accompanied by relatively greater volumes of pyroclastic (often ignimbritic) products. Overall, the igneous activity spanned a wide temporal range, from middle Eocene (such as the Periadriatic Province) to the present (as in the Neapolitan of southern Italy). The magmatic products are mostly SiO₂-oversaturated, showing calcalkaline to high-K calcalcaline affinity, except in some areas (as in peninsular Italy) where potassic to ultrapotassic compositions prevail. The ultrapotassic magmas (which include leucitites to leucite-phonolites) are dominantly SiO₂-undersaturated, although rare, SiO₂-saturated (i.e., leucite-free lamproites) appear over much of this region, examples being in the Betics (southeast Spain), the northwest Alps, northeast Corsica (France), Tuscany (northwest Italy), southeast Tyrrhenian Sea (Cornacya Seamount) and possibly in the Tell region (northeast Algeria).Excepted for the Alpine case, subduction-related igneous activity is strictly linked to the formation of the Mediterranean Sea. This Sea, at least in its central and western sectors, is made up of several young (< 30 Ma) V-shaped back-arc basins plus several dispersed continental fragments, originally in crustal continuity with the European plate (Sardinia, Corsica, Balearic Islands, Kabylies, Calabria, Peloritani Mountains). The bulk of igneous activity in the central-western Mediterranean is believed to have tapped mantle ‘wedge’ regions, metasomatized by pressure-related dehydration of the subducting slabs. The presence of subduction-related igneous rocks with a wide range of chemical composition has been related to the interplay of several factors among which the pre-metasomatic composition of the mantle wedges (i.e., fertile vs. refractory mineralogy), the composition of the subducting plate (i.e., the type and amount of sediment cover and the alteration state of the crust), the variable thermo-baric conditions of magma formation, coupled with variable molar concentrations of CO₂ and H₂O in the fluid phase released by the subducting plates are the most important.Compared to classic collisional settings (e.g., Himalayas), the central-western Mediterranean area shows a range of unusual geological and magmatological features. These include: a) the rapid formation of extensional basins in an overall compressional setting related to Africa-Europe convergence; b) centrifugal wave of both compressive and extensional tectonics starting from a ‘pivotal’ region around the Gulf of Lyon; c) the development of concomitant Cenozoic subduction zones with different subduction and tectonic transport directions; d) subduction ‘inversion’ events (e.g., currently along the Maghrebian coast and in northern Sicily, previously at the southern paleo-European margin); e) a repeated temporal pattern whereby subduction-related magmatic activity gives way to magmas of intraplate geochemical type; f) the late-stage appearance of magmas with collision-related ‘exotic’ (potassic to ultrapotassic) compositions, generally absent from simple subduction settings; g) the relative scarcity of typical calcalkaline magmas along the Italian peninsula; h) the absence of igneous activity where it might well be expected (e.g., above the hanging-wall of the Late Cretaceous–Eocene Adria–Europe subduction system in the Alps); i) voluminous production of subduction-related magmas coeval with extensional tectonic régimes (e.g., during Oligo-Miocene Sardinian Trough formation).To summarize, these salient central-western Mediterranean features, characterizing a late-stage of the classic ‘Wilson Cycle’ offer a ‘template’ for interpreting magmatic compositions in analogous settings elsewhere.     

The Tauern Window (Eastern Alps, Austria): a new tectonic map, with cross-sections and a tectonometamorphic synthesis

We present a tectonic map of the Tauern Window and surrounding units (Eastern Alps, Austria), combined with a series of crustal-scale cross-sections parallel and perpendicular to the Alpine orogen. This compilation, largely based on literature data and completed by own investigations, reveals that the present-day structure of the Tauern Window is primarily characterized by a crustal-scale duplex, the Venediger Duplex (Venediger Nappe system), formed during the Oligocene, and overprinted by doming and lateral extrusion during the Miocene. This severe Miocene overprint was most probably triggered by the indentation of the Southalpine Units east of the Giudicarie Belt, initiating at 23–21 Ma and linked to a lithosphere-scale reorganization of the geometry of mantle slabs. A kinematic reconstruction shows that accretion of European lithosphere and oceanic domains to the Adriatic (Austroalpine) upper plate, accompanied by high-pressure overprint of some of the units of the Tauern Window, has a long history, starting in Turonian time (around 90 Ma) and culminating in Lutetian to Bartonian time (45–37 Ma).     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.     

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Productivity of Corn and Winter Wheat in Their Primary United States Growing Regions

We calculate the impacts of climate effects inferred from three atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) at three levels of climate change severity associated with change in global mean temperature (GMT) of 1.0, 2.5 and 5.0 °C and three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) – 365 (no CO2 fertilization effect), 560 and 750 ppm – on the potential production of dryland winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and corn (Zea mays L.) for the primary (current) U.S. growing regions of each crop. This analysis is a subset of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) which has the goal of integrating the linkages and feedbacks among human activities and resulting greenhouse gas emissions, changes in atmospheric composition and resulting climate change, and impacts on terrestrial systems. A set of representative farms was designed for each of the primary production regions studied and the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) was used to simulate crop response to climate change. The GCMs applied were the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the United Kingdom Meteorological Transient (UKTR) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorological Research Center (BMRC), each regionalized by means of a scenario generator (SCENGEN). The GISS scenarios have the least impact on corn and wheat production, reducing national potential production for corn by 6% and wheat by 7% at a GMT of 2.5 °C and no CO2 fertilization effect; the UKTR scenario had the most severe impact on wheat, reducing production by 18% under the same conditions; BMRC had the greatest negative impact on corn, reducing production by 20%. A GMT increase of 1.0°C marginally decreased corn and wheat production. Increasing GMT had a detrimental impact on both corn and wheat production, with wheat production suffering the greatest losses. Decreases for wheat production at GMT 5.0 and [CO2] = 365 ppm range from 36% for the GISS to 76% for the UKTR scenario. Increases in atmospheric [CO2] had a positive impact on both corn and wheat production. AT GMT 1.0, an increase in [CO2] to 560 ppm resulted in a net increase in corn and wheat production above baseline levels (from 18 to 29% for wheat and 2 to 5% for corn). Increases in [CO2] help to offset yield reductions at higher GMT levels; in most cases, however, these increases are not sufficient to return crop production to baseline levels.     

Hydromagnetic field line resonances and modulation of particle precipitation

Hydromagnetic wave and modulated particle precipitation data are reported from conjugate areas near the particledrift shell L ～ 4. A modulation of electrons precipitating from the magnetosphere is observed in the conjugate regions when the accompanying hydromagnetic wave period is ~ 90 s and the wave polarization is linear. When the wave period changes abruptly to ~ 30 s and the polarizations at the observing stations are no longer linear, the modulation of the precipitating electrons is no longer observed. The change in hydromagnetic wave characteristics does not appear to be related to interplanetary plasma and magnetic field conditions. Rather, it is proposed to arise from a change in the wave generation mechanism from an internal magnetospheric source near the inner edge of the plasmapause (lower frequency) to an externally driven source outside the magnetosphere (higher frequency). This observation of a change in the wave characteristics (frequency and polarization) associated with modulated electron precipitation appears to be related to two previous examples wherein modulated electron precipitation was reported to be closely associated with the existence of a wave resonance region near the observing site.