Spatial comparisons in wetland loss,mitigation, and flood hazards among watersheds in the lower St. Johns River basin,northeastern Florida,USA

Natural Hazards - The objective of this research is to establish a model that characterizes integrated humanitarian operations management in response to flood disasters, during which an optimal...     

Advances in research and forecasting of tropical cyclones from 1963–2013

A review of progress over the past 50 years in observing and forecasting of tropical cyclones is presented. Tremendous progress has been made in track forecasting in the past 20 years with the improvement in numerical model guidance and the use of consensus forecasting, and this has contributed to a number of warning centers now issuing five-day track forecasts that are as accurate as three-day forecasts of a decade ago. Techniques are now available to specify the track forecast uncertainty for assessing the risk of a tropical cyclone. With the advent of five-day forecasts, a focus on improved understanding of formation has led to two field experiments. A recent advance has been in extended-range (5–30 days) forecasts of tropical cyclone events (formations and tracks) in the western North Pacific from the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions. This advance is a contribution to a goal of seamless forecasting from one day to a season for tropical cyclones. Little progress has been made in intensity forecasting, although the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project in the United States and recent field experiments may offer some future advances. Some advances in forecasting tropical cyclone impacts such as storm surge, surface waves, and precipitation have been achieved. Future opportunities for continued advances are possible such that improved warnings can lead to reductions in losses of lives and minimizing damages from tropical cyclones.     

On how thin submarine flows transported large volumes of sand for hundreds of kilometres across a flat basin plain without eroding the sea floor

Submarine gravity currents, especially long run‐out flows that reach the deep ocean, are exceptionally difficult to monitor in action, hence there is a need to reconstruct how these flows behave from their deposits. This study mapped five individual flow deposits (beds) across the Agadir Basin, offshore north‐west Africa. This is the only data set where bed shape, internal distribution of lithofacies, changes in grain size and sea floor gradient, bed volumes, flow thickness and depth of erosion into underlying hemipelagic mud are known for individual beds. Some flows were 30 to 120 m thick. However, flows with the highest fraction of sand were less than 5 to 14 m thick. Sand was most likely to be carried in the lower 5 to 7 m of these flows. Despite being relatively thin, one flow was capable of transporting very large volumes of sediment (ca 200 km³) for large distances across very flat sea floor. These observations show that these relatively thin flows could travel quickly enough on very low gradients (0·02° to 0·05°) to suspend sand several metres to tens of metres above the sea floor, and maintain those speeds for up to 250 km across the basin. Near uniform hemipelagic mud interval thickness between beds, and coccolith assemblages in the mud caps of beds, suggest that the flows did not erode significantly into the underlying sea floor mud. Simple calculations imply that some flows, especially in the proximal part of the basin, were powerful enough to have eroded hemipelagic mud if it was exposed to the flow. This suggests that the flows were depositional from the moment they arrived at a basin plain location, and that deposition shielded the underlying hemipelagic mud from erosion. Reproducing the field observations outlined in this exceptionally detailed field data set is a challenge for future experimental and numerical models.     

Shale swelling/shrinkage and water content change due to imposed suction and due to direct brine contact

Analyses were performed on nine different preserved shales, representing in situ states of 5–15 % water content and 0.13–0.42 void ratio. Under varying total suction (controlled humidity), each shale shows well-defined relationships among suction, volume change, water content and saturation, with the lower-porosity shales undergoing less volume and water content change than the higher-porosity shales. A decrease in in situ porosity is also associated with a much higher native state suction as well as full saturation extending to suction values beyond 40 MPa. Only part of the high suction is due to capillary tension. Under direct brine exposure, the shales almost always swell, even when the brine has an equivalent suction greater than the shale. This is likely due to the reduction in some component of the matric suction. The shale pore water is found to equilibrate with the solute content of the surrounding brine, due to ion diffusion. Much or all of the swelling, and water increase, appears to take place in the clay-bound water and not in the main (free water) pore space. The swelling magnitude is consistent with the amount of water content increase. Swelling usually corresponds to less than one additional water layer being added between the clays. Swelling, and water increase, is very small for the low-porosity shales. Some osmotic effects are observable in all the shales, and cation exchange on the clays also takes place. Swelling is best inhibited with potassium, followed by sodium, followed by calcium, for brines of equal water activity ranging from 0.8 to 0.9.     

Compositional variability on the surface of 4 Vesta revealed through GRaND measurements of high‐energy gamma rays

Measurements of the high‐energy gamma‐ray flux emanating from asteroid 4 Vesta by the Dawn Gamma‐Ray and Neutron Detector (GRaND) have revealed variability in the near‐surface elemental composition of the Vestan surface. These observations are consistent with the presence of large (≥8 × 10⁴ km²) regions with distinct, HED‐like elemental compositions. The results agree broadly with other global measurements, such as the macroscopic neutron absorption cross section and spectral reflectance‐derived mineralogic maps. Two distinct regions with eucrite‐like elemental compositions have been identified, the first located primarily within the Lucaria and Marcia quadrangles and the second within Oppia quadrangle. The former region is collocated with some of the oldest, most heavily cratered terrain on Vesta. The interior of the 500 km diameter Rheasilvia impact basin is found to have a composition that is consistent with diogenite‐like material. Taken together, these observations support the hypothesis that Vesta's original crust was composed of basaltic outflows in the form of eucritic‐like material and that the Rheasilvia‐basin‐forming impact exposed lower‐crustal, diogenite‐like material. These measurements also constrain the maximum amount of mesosiderite‐like material to <10% for each 15 × 15° surface element.     

The ODP color digital imaging system: Color logs of quaternary sediments from the Santa Barbara basin,site 893

Digital color logs of cores from leg 146, holes 893A and 893B, have been taken from images captured during January 1993, within days after the cores were split and described. The images were captured and color analyses performed on the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) color digital imaging system, which was assembled from relatively inexpensive, off‐the‐shelf components. The images were used to calculate sedimentation rates by fitting chronological data from hole 893A to void‐corrected depths determined by eliminating all voids mapped from the images as >1 cm in length measured downcore. Color measurements were made at intervals between 0.22 and 1.0 mm in length, and then Commission Internationale de l'Eclairage (CIE) 1931 chromaticity values were computed. Results plotted within CIE chro‐maticity space lie in close proximity to the Munsell 5Y hue plane, confirming that the instrumental color analysis technique has produced results consistent with those of the human observers who described colors visually. Significant periodicities occurring at 12, 17, 31, and 90 years correlate with sunspot activity cycles, suggesting that color variations may reflect global climatic forcing functions. Linear correlation between color data sets from holes 893A and 893B suggests that as much as 1.2 m of material present at or near the top of hole 893B may not have been recovered from hole 893A, and that there is a 70‐cm depth discrepancy in the opposite direction at 51.5 m below seafloor (mbsf). The article recommends that the 1931 CIE chromaticity system be used routinely for describing colors of geological materials because it readily accommodates the mathematical manipulations required for statistical and time‐series analyses and avoids the subjectivity and other weaknesses inherent in the Munsell Color System.     

Biological assessment of rivers in the Manawatu‐Wanganui region of New Zealand using a predictive macroinvertebrate model

This study presents a river invertebrate and classification system (RIVPACS) type bioassessment methodology for the Manawatu‐Wanganui region of New Zealand. Aquatic macroinvertebrates and related physico‐chemical data were collected at 127 sites, with minimal human impacts (reference sites) in 2000. The reference sites were classified into five groups based on their macroinvertebrate data using TWINSPAN. These biotic groupings were then applied to their corresponding physico‐chemical data and discriminant functions were obtained to assign sites into the biotic groups using the physico‐chemical data. The discriminant functions correctly allocated 72% of the sites to the correct classification group using a jack‐knife validation. The probabilities from the discriminant functions were used to predict macroinvertebrate assemblages and these were compared with observed macroinvertebrate assemblages. The model was then used to assess the health of 29 test sites with known impacts. All test sites were assessed as impacted based on the 10th percentile of the reference data. To evaluate the temporal reliability of the model, data available for 11 sites sampled in 1997 and 2000 were run through the model. The results of this comparison showed little variation in O/E ratios over time and the two sites classed as impacted in 1997 were also classed as impacted in 2000.     

Comparative study of ion cyclotron waves at Mars, Venus and Earth

Ion cyclotron waves are generated in the solar wind when it picks up freshly ionized planetary exospheric ions. These waves grow from the free energy of the highly anisotropic distribution of fresh pickup ions, and are observed in the spacecraft frame with left-handed polarization and a wave frequency near the ion’s gyrofrequency. At Mars and Venus and in the Earth’s polar cusp, the solar wind directly interacts with the planetary exospheres. Ion cyclotron waves with many similar properties are observed in these diverse plasma environments. The ion cyclotron waves at Mars indicate its hydrogen exosphere to be extensive and asymmetric in the direction of the interplanetary electric field. The production of fast neutrals plays an important role in forming an extended exosphere in the shape and size observed. At Venus, the region of exospheric proton cyclotron wave production may be restricted to the magnetosheath. The waves observed in the solar wind at Venus appear to be largely produced by the solar-wind-Venus interaction, with some waves at higher frequencies formed near the Sun and carried outward by the solar wind to Venus. These waves have some similarity to the expected properties of exospherically produced proton pickup waves but are characterized by magnetic connection to the bow shock or by a lack of correlation with local solar wind properties respectively. Any confusion of solar derived waves with exospherically derived ion pickup waves is not an issue at Mars because the solar-produced waves are generally at much higher frequencies than the local pickup waves and the solar waves should be mostly absorbed when convected to Mars distance as the proton cyclotron frequency in the plasma frame approaches the frequency of the solar-produced waves. In the Earth’s polar cusp, the wave properties of ion cyclotron waves are quite variable. Spatial gradients in the magnetic field may cause this variation as the background field changes between the regions in which the fast neutrals are produced and where they are re-ionized and picked up. While these waves were discovered early in the magnetospheric exploration, their generation was not understood until after we had observed similar waves in the exospheres of Mars and Venus.