Terrain-influenced local wind forecasting for the Sasebo typhoon haven: Improved empirical techniques

Although the Sasebo, Japan harbor is usually a “typhoon haven” from tropical cyclone (TC) winds due to terrain-blocking effects, in rare cases damaging winds occur that may be attributed to terrain channeling. An empirical parametric model technique is developed and tested that includes consideration of the TC wind structure, land frictional effects, and terrain influences affecting the maximum wind speeds in the harbor when TCs pass within 200 nautical miles of Sasebo. The terrain influence is represented by two sets of wind direction-dependent acceleration factors. The first set, which is directly from the ratio of the local wind to the adjusted parametric wind for TCs passages during 2003–2010, provides mean values that represent the terrain blocking and channeling effects, but the variability with wind direction may be suspect. The second set derived from a large sample of reanalysis winds not limited to TCs has better variability properties, but is not easily related to just the TC passages. A new nomogram modified to include TC wind structure has higher estimates of Sasebo sustained winds for some TC tracks that may be related to terrain influences, but is limited due to the number of TC structure estimates in the developmental sample. These empirical models have the advantage of ease and low cost for future use in also estimating the combined uncertainty in the local winds in Sasebo harbor due to TCs.     

Mid-holocene climate change in Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana

Lake Bosumtwi is one of the most widely studied palaeoclimate archives in West Africa. Results from numerous AMS ¹⁴C dates of samples from four piston cores from Lake Bosumtwi show that an abrupt sedimentary transition from a mid-Holocene sapropel to calcareous laminated muds occurred at about 3200 cal yr B.P. High-resolution analyses of the nitrogen isotopic composition of organic matter across this transition confirm its abrupt nature, and suggest that the change may signal a step toward increased aridity and intensified surface winds that affected western equatorial Africa from Ghana to the Congo basin. Northern and Eastern Africa experienced a similar abrupt shift toward aridity during the late Holocene, but at about 5000 cal yr B.P., a difference in timing that illustrates the regional nature of climate changes during the Holocene and the importance of feedback mechanisms in regulating Holocene climate variability. Furthermore, an abrupt change at about 3000 cal yr B.P. occurs at several sites adjacent to the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, which may hint at major changes in the surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic and/or Pacific at this time.     

The Fernow Experimental Forest,West Virginia,USA: Insights,datasets, and opportunities

Long-term experimental watershed studies have significantly influenced our global understanding of hydrological processes. The discovery and characterization of how stream water quantity and quality respond to a changing environment (e.g. land-use change, acidic deposition) has only been possible due to the establishment of catchments devoted to long-term study. One such catchment is the Fernow Experimental Forest (FEF) located in the headwaters of the Appalachian Mountains in West Virginia, a region that provides essential freshwater ecosystem services to eastern and mid-western United States communities. Established in 1934, the FEF is among the earliest experimental watershed studies in the Eastern United States that continues to address emergent challenges to forest ecosystems, including climate change and other threats to forest health. This data note describes available data and presents some findings from more than 50 years of hydrologic research at the FEF. During the first few decades, research at the FEF focused on the relationship between forest management and hydrological processes—especially those related to the overall water balance. Later, research included the examination of interactions between hydrology and soil erosion, biogeochemistry, N-saturation, and acid deposition. Hydro-climatologic and water quality datasets from long-term measurements and data from short-duration studies are publicly available to provide new insights and foster collaborations that will continue to advance our understanding of hydrology in forested headwater catchments. As a result of its rich history of research and abundance of long-term data, the FEF is positioned to continue to advance understanding of forest ecosystems in a time of unprecedented change.     

Atmospheric forcing of the southeast Bering Sea Shelf during 1995–99 in the context of a 40-year historical record

The atmospheric forcing of the Bering Sea over its eastern shelf is estimated using the 40-year record of daily data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. This data set includes estimates of the processes responsible for the atmospheric forcing, namely the surface fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat, and longwave and shortwave radiation, and therefore permits quantifying effects that previously could be inferred only from the large-scale nature of the flow. The forcing in 1995–1999 is described in detail using daily time series; historical context for these results is provided with seasonal averages for the years 1959–1999.The analysis for winter concentrates on aspects related to the formation and advection of sea ice. Results indicate that the presence of sea ice is strongly related to the net surface-heat fluxes as well as the cross-shelf component of the wind. The 40-year record lacks any discernible long-term trend in the winter forcing and response. There was a notably cold period in the early to middle 1970s, and a warm period from the late 1970s into the early 1980s, but conditions during the 1990s are similar to those in the late 1950s and 1960s.The analysis for the warm season focuses on the mechanisms responsible for the variability in SST warming. Much of the intraseasonal and interannual variability in this warming can be attributed to variations in the downward shortwave radiation (solar heating). The 40-year record does indicate a long-term trend toward increased solar heating, and reduced surface latent-heat fluxes (evaporative cooling). These changes have led to August SSTs in the 1990s that are roughly 1°C warmer than in the 1960s.     

The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: luminosity dependence of galaxy clustering

We investigate the dependence of the strength of galaxy clustering on intrinsic luminosity using the Anglo-Australian two degree field galaxy redshift survey (2dFGRS). The 2dFGRS is over an order of magnitude larger than previous redshift surveys used to address this issue. We measure the projected two-point correlation function of galaxies in a series of volume-limited samples. The projected correlation function is free from any distortion of the clustering pattern induced by peculiar motions and is well described by a power law in pair separation over the range     . The clustering of     galaxies in real space is well-fitted by a correlation length     and power-law slope     . The clustering amplitude increases slowly with absolute magnitude for galaxies fainter than M *, but rises more strongly at higher luminosities. At low luminosities, our results agree with measurements from the Southern Sky Redshift Survey 2 by Benoist et al. However, we find a weaker dependence of clustering strength on luminosity at the highest luminosities. The correlation function amplitude increases by a factor of 4.0 between     and −22.5, and the most luminous galaxies are 3.0 times more strongly clustered than L * galaxies. The power-law slope of the correlation function shows remarkably little variation for samples spanning a factor of 20 in luminosity. Our measurements are in very good agreement with the predictions of the hierarchical galaxy formation models of Benson et al.     

Advances in understanding the “Perfect Monsoon-influenced Typhoon”: Summary from International Conference on Typhoon Morakot (2009)

Typhoon Morakot (2009) produced 2855 mm of rain and was the deadliest typhoon to impact Taiwan with 619 deaths and 76 missing persons, including a landslide that wiped out an entire village. While Morakot did not exceed the heaviest 24-h rain record, the combination of heavy rain and long duration that led to the record accumulation is attributed to the southwest summer monsoon influence on the typhoon. Thus, a special combination of factors was involved in the Morakot disaster: (i) Strong southwesterly monsoon winds; (ii) Convergence between the typhoon circulation and monsoon flow to form an east-west oriented convective band over the Taiwan Strait that was quasi-stationary and long-lasting; (iii) A typhoon in a specific location relative to the Central Mountain Range and moving slowly; and (iv) Steep topography that provided rapid lifting of the moist air stream. The contributions of each of these four factors in leading to the Morakot disaster are reviewed primarily based on new research presented at the International Conference on Typhoon Morakot (2009). Historical data sets, new Doppler radar observations, and numerical modeling have advanced the understanding of the special conditions of monsoon-influenced typhoons such as Morakot. This research is also leading to modifications of existing and development of new forecasting tools. Gaps in scientific understanding, limits to the predictability, and requirements for advanced forecast guidance tools are described that are challenges to improved warnings of these extreme precipitation and flooding events in monsoon-influenced typhoons.     

Global photometric properties of Asteroid (4) Vesta observed with Dawn Framing Camera

Dawn spacecraft orbited Vesta for more than one year and collected a huge volume of multispectral, high-resolution data in the visible wavelengths with the Framing Camera. We present a detailed disk-integrated and disk-resolved photometric analysis using the Framing Camera images with the Minnaert model and the Hapke model, and report our results about the global photometric properties of Vesta. The photometric properties of Vesta show weak or no dependence on wavelengths, except for the albedo. At 554 nm, the global average geometric albedo of Vesta is 0.38 ± 0.04, and the Bond albedo range is 0.20 ± 0.02. The bolometric Bond albedo is 0.18 ± 0.01. The phase function of Vesta is similar to those of S-type asteroids. Vesta’s surface shows a single-peaked albedo distribution with a full-width-half-max ∼17% relative to the global average. This width is much smaller than the full range of albedos (from ∼0.55× to >2× global average) in localized bright and dark areas of a few tens of km in sizes, and is probably a consequence of significant regolith mixing on the global scale. Rheasilvia basin is ∼10% brighter than the global average. The phase reddening of Vesta measured from Dawn Framing Camera images is comparable or slightly stronger than that of Eros as measured by the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous mission, but weaker than previous measurements based on ground-based observations of Vesta and laboratory measurements of HED meteorites. The photometric behaviors of Vesta are best described by the Hapke model and the Akimov disk-function, when compared with the Minnaert model, Lommel–Seeliger model, and Lommel–Seeliger–Lambertian model. The traditional approach for photometric correction is validated for Vesta for >99% of its surface where reflectance is within ±30% of global average.     

Dawn; the Vesta–HED connection; and the geologic context for eucrites,diogenites, and howardites

The Dawn mission has provided new evidence strengthening the identification of asteroid Vesta as the parent body of the howardite, eucrite, and diogenite (HED) meteorites. The evidence includes Vesta's petrologic complexity, detailed spectroscopic characteristics, unique space weathering, diagnostic geochemical abundances and neutron absorption characteristics, chronology of surface units and impact history, occurrence of exogenous carbonaceous chondritic materials in the regolith, and dimensions of the core, all of which are consistent with HED observations and constraints. Global mapping of the distributions of HED lithologies by Dawn cameras and spectrometers provides the missing geologic context for these meteorites, thereby allowing tests of petrogenetic models and increasing their scientific value.     

New 1982 — 1990 photometry of λ Andromedae and its 11-year cycle

We present photoelectric photometry of λ And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29 different observatories. Then we combine it with all other photometry available to us (previously published, contained in the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0^m.15 and a period of 11.4 ± 0.4 years. Because most of our new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-84 observing season, we analyze that one well-defined light curve with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0^m.04 amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0^m.09 down almost to 0^m.03. The spot rotation periods were 55^d.9 ± 0^d.6 and 520^d.8 ± 1^d.0, respectively.