Exploring the magnitude–frequency distribution: a cellular automata model for landslides

Landslide magnitude–frequency curves allow for the probabilistic characterization of regional landslide hazard. There is evidence that landslides exhibit self-organized criticality including the tendency to follow a power law over part of the magnitude–frequency distribution. Landslide distributions, however, also typically exhibit poor agreement with the power law at smaller sizes in a flattening of the slope known as rollover. Understanding the basis for this difference is critical if we are to accurately predict landslide hazard, risk or landscape denudation over large areas. One possible argument is that the magnitude–frequency distribution is dominated by physiographic controls whereby landslides tend to a larger size, and larger landslides are landscape limited according to a power law. We explore the physiographic argument using first a simple deterministic model and then a cellular automata model for watersheds in coastal British Columbia. The results compare favorably to actual landslide data: modeled landslides bifurcate at local elevation highs, deposit mass preferentially where the local slopes decrease, find routes in confined valley or channel networks, and, when sufficiently large, overwhelm the local topography. The magnitude–frequency distribution of both the actual landslides and the cellular automata model follow a power law for magnitudes higher than 10,000–20,000 m² and show a flattening of the slope for smaller magnitudes. Based on the results of both models, we argue that magnitude–frequency distributions, including both the rollover and the power law components, are a result of actual physiographic limitations related to slope, slope distance, and the distribution of mass within landslides. The cellular automata model uses simple empirically based rules that can be gathered for regions worldwide.     

Distribution of dissolved organic carbon and metal-binding capacity among ultrafilterable fractions isolated from selected surface waters of the southeastern United States

The binding capacities of surface waters for Cd, Cu, and Pb were determined for eight water samples representing four rivers and two swamps from Florida and Georgia in the southeastern United States The binding capacity ranges were CdBC=0 04 to 0 79 μg atm/L, CuBC=1 0 to 5 4 μg atm/L, and PbBC=5 0 to 17 8 μg atm/L Binding capacity values from the southeastern United States are shown to be in good agreement with values reported from the northeastern part of the country and northern Europe The CdBC was due primarily to inorganic ligand binding, while PbBC was predominantly a result of organic matter The CuBC was due to a complex function of both organic and inorganic binding Significant portions of the CuBC and PbBC could be removed from the waters by ultrafiltration of particles between 0·45 μm and 52 Å in diameter Ultrafiltration, even to removing particles > 13 Å diameter, did not affect the CdBC Distributional studies of the dissolved organic carbon in these systems reveal that significant fractions of the DOC are present in the ultrafilterable fraction which contains significant portions of the CuBC and PbBC     

Low-pressure metamorphism and anatexis of Carolina Slate Belt Phyllites in the contact aureole of the Lilesville Pluton,North Carolina,USA

In the contact aureole of the Lilesville granite and comagmatic Pee Dee gabbro, N.C., greenschist-facies phyllites of the Carolina slate belt have been overprinted by a series of metamorphic reactions producing opx-bearing hornfelses and migmatitic gneisses. In the exterior aureole the slate belt assemblage (chl+ms+ep+ab+qz) gives way to the continuous reaction assemblages (chl+bt+cd+ ms+ab±ep+qz), (bt+cd+ms+An_8–29+qz), (bt+cd+ kf+ms+pl+qz), (bt+cd+als±ms+kf+pl+qz), and (bt+cd+ga+kf+pl+qz), from lowest to highest grade. The interior aureole, interpreted as part of the floor of the granite, bears the continuous and discontinuous reaction assemblages (bt+cd+als+kf+pl+qz),(bt+cd+kf+ pl+qz), and, near the gabbro, (bt+cd+ga+opx+kf+ pl+qz). The leucosomes of the migmatitic interior aureole are predominantly trondhjemites with the assemblage (An_35–45+qz±bt±cd±kf). Restites in the migmatitic interior aureole contain the AFM assemblages (bt), (bt + cd), (bt+cd+als), and (bt+cd+ga), plus kf, An_40–50, and qz. Contact metamorphism was isobaric at 4.0–5.1 or 2.0–3.5 kb depending on choice of aluminosilicate triple point; temperatures reached 650° C in the migmatitic interior aureole and approached 750° C near the gabbro; was less than 0.8 in the migmatites, and was lower in the interior aureole and in the high grade exterior aureole. Partial melting in the migmatitic interior aureole took place during dynamothermal metamorphism caused by the magmatic diapir. Incipient melting occurred by the reaction bt+cd+kf+pl+qz+w = liquid. The melt was H₂O-undersaturated and coefficients of the reactants were weighted heavily toward the felsic minerals; the proportion of felsic minerals in the leucosomes was controlled in part by modal abundance of kf, pl, and qz available for melting. The incorporation of K into biotite by subsolidus reactions, coupled with the high thermal stability and low solubility of biotite in a felsic melt, are responsible for the trondhjemitic composition of the early anatectic liquids.Abbreviations als Al₂SiO₅ - ab albite - An_8–29 plagioclase with anorthite contents in the range indicated - bt biotite - cd cordierite - chl chlorite - ep epidote - ga garnet - kf K feldspar - ms muscovite - opx orthopyroxene - pl plagioclase undefined - qz quartz - w water     

Epidote phenocrysts in dacitic dikes,Boulder County,Colorado

Epidote (Ps21%) crystallized early as elongate phenocrysts in Late Cretaceous rhyodacitic dikes in the vicinity of Ward, Boulder County, Colorado. Other unusual phenocryst phases are garnet (Gr17–24%) and muscovite. In a xenolith containing kyanite, corundum, biotite, and plagioclase, magmatic garnet grew as a rim around xenocrystic pyrope-rich (Py37%) garnet. The xenolith was derived from a granulite-facies zone, not represented at the present-day erosion surface which is composed of upper amphibolite-facies cordierite and sillimanite-bearing gneisses. The dike magmas were fed not from an immediately underlying batholith but from a magma chamber at a depth corresponding to a pressure of 8–13 kilobars. Phenocrysts cystallized in the temperature range 800 to 700° C, under H₂O and O₂ activities greater than normal for silicic magmas. This occurrence shows convincingly not only that epidote can be magmatic but that it is a possible early-crystallization phase in silicic magmas.     

High temperature simulation of petroleum formation—III. Effect of organic starting material structure on hydrocarbon formation

In an attempt to evaulate the hypothesis that petroleum formation can be simulated using high temperatures, Green River Shale from Colorado, U.S.A., was subjected to closed-system pyrolysis for 16 hr at temperatures ranging from 300 to 500°C. Variations in the pyrolysis products (gases, volatile liquids, and organics extracts) over this temperature range duplicate the variations observed in many in situ studies of petroleum maturation.The sequence of products formed over this temperature range was used to define five different zones of maturation reactions: (1) a heterobond cracking zone; (2) a labile carbon bond cracking zone; (3) a free radical synthesis zone; (4) a wet gas formation zone; and (5) a dry gas formation zone. This high temperature simulation of maturation can be used to test other factors in petroleum formation such as mineral catalysis.     

Reversible ion-exchange fixation of cesium-137 leading to mobilization from reservoir sediments

The radioactive fission product, ¹³⁷Cs, has been observed to mobilize from bottom sediments of two South Carolina reservoirs during summer thermal stratification and hypolimnetic anoxia. Mobilization is attributed to ion-exchange displacement of ¹³⁷Cs from sediments by cations such as NH⁺₄, Fe⁺² and Mn⁺² released under anaerobic conditions.Three types of ¹³⁷Cs binding sites to sediment clay minerals are identified: 1) surface and planar sites from which ¹³⁷Cs is generally exchangeable by all cations studied (Na⁺, NH⁺₄, H⁺, Cs⁺, Ca⁺², Mg⁺², Fe⁺², and Mn⁺²); 2) wedge sites where ¹³⁷Cs exchange is sterically limited to cations of similar size and charge (NH⁺₄, Cs⁺, K⁺, and perhaps H₃O⁺); 3) interlayer sites from which ¹³⁷Cs is not readily exchanged. More than 15 years after final ¹³⁷Cs inputs, the reservoir sediments we studied showed the following percentage distribution of sites: 2 to 9% surface sites, 6 to 13% wedge sites, and 78 to 85% interlayer sites. In contrast, lake and stream sediments near Oak Ridge, Tennessee receiving ¹³⁷Cs inputs more than 20 years earlier had greater than 99% of their ¹³⁷Cs associated with non-exchangeable interlayer sites. The difference is attributed to the paucity in the South Carolina sediments of weathered micaceous clay minerals with their abundant interlayer sites. Such interlayer deficient clays are dominant in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal plains of the United States and elsewhere. This suggests that ¹³⁷Cs will be physically and chemically more mobile in such areas as well as more biologically available. Mobility will be enhanced in regimes where cation inputs favoring ¹³⁷Cs exchange occur. Subsurface waste disposal sites where anaerobic conditions develop with NH⁺₄ production and Fe⁺² and Mn⁺² release might be such a regime.     

Jupiter's and Saturn's fine-scale magnetic fields

Jupiter's field is strongly dipolar but with relatively large high order moments compared to the Earth's. In situ magnetic field data allow us to interpret most of the Earth-based microwave observations of Jupiter, with the exception of Branson's hot spot. Decametric emissions have a complex rotational pattern which has been stable since 1950; their agreement with the spacecraft magnetic fields is much less satisfactory than that of the microwaves. We conclude that the extrapolation of magnetic fields from the spacecraft to the surface of Jupiter is in error by 40% in the Southern Hemisphere.Saturn's radio emissions show complexities similar to Jupiter's. They are strongly asymmetric about the rotational axis, although Saturn's Field is nearly axisymmetric. Their strong asymmetry suggests strong longitudinal variations in the magnetic field a few thousand kilometers from the cloud tops, in conflict with the field measured aboard Pioneer 11.The magnetic fields within a few thousand kilometers of either Jupiter's or Saturn's cloud tops are probably unknown. It is discouraging that more is not known about the fields after a total of 7 encounters. Perhaps the Galileo probe can test usefully models of the Jupiter field, even if its measurements refer to just one trajectory through the clouds. An arguable case can be made that the giant planets exhibit complexity of magnetic structure similar to the Sun.     

Evaluating rainfall patterns using physics scheme ensembles from a regional atmospheric model

This study evaluated the ability of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) multi-physics ensembles to simulate storm systems known as East Coast Lows (ECLs). ECLs are intense low-pressure systems that develop off the eastern coast of Australia. These systems can cause significant damage to the region. On the other hand, the systems are also beneficial as they generate the majority of high inflow to coastal reservoirs. It is the common interest of both hazard control and water management to correctly capture the ECL features in modeling, in particular, to reproduce the observed spatial rainfall patterns. We simulated eight ECL events using WRF with 36 model configurations, each comprising physics scheme combinations of two planetary boundary layer (pbl), two cumulus (cu), three microphysics (mp), and three radiation (ra) schemes. The performance of each physics scheme combination and the ensembles of multiple physics scheme combinations were evaluated separately. Results show that using the ensemble average gives higher skill than the median performer within the ensemble. More importantly, choosing a composite average of the better performing pbl and cu schemes can substantially improve the representation of high rainfall both spatially and quantitatively.     

Intercomparison of NO,NO2 and HNO3 measurements with photochemical theory

The simultaneous measurements of NO, NO₂ and HNO_A mixing‐ratio profiles carried out on the Stratoprobe balloon flight of 22 July 1974 have been simulated with a time‐dependent model using the measured temperature and ozone profiles. The calculated ratios of NO/NO₂, HNO₃/NO₂ using currently accepted photochemistry are consistent with the measured ratios within the experimental errors of the measurements. The measured NO₂/NO ratio is almost a factor of two smaller than predicted, although the discrepancy is still within the experimental errors. A remarkable proportionality in the NO₂ and O₃ profiles has been noted and is unexplained. A time‐dependent simulation has been employed to convert the measurements into diurnally‐averaged profiles suitable for intercomparison with two‐dimensional stratospheric models and a comparison with constituent profiles from Prinn et al. (1975) is carried out as an example. The NO_V mixing ratio, formed from the sum of the NO, NO₂ and HNO₂ measurements is similar to the NO_V mixing ratio from several one‐ and two‐dimensional models used to predict the effects of SST's on the ozone layer. The odd nitrogen mixing ratio is roughly constant from 20 to 35 km at 11 ppbv.