Repetitive structure in the stellar wind of HD 93843: a normal O-type star

We present the results from a 28-day IUE time-series campaign monitoring the stellar wind of the O5-type giant HD 93843. The principal aim was to study variability in the wind of a star with a normal projected rotation velocity. Systematic changes are identified, amidst continuous line-profile variability, in the absorption troughs of the Si  iv and N  v resonance lines. The patterns observed have characteristic time-scales of several days and are mimicked by fluctuations (of several 100 km s⁻¹) in the blue wings of the saturated C  iv P Cygni profile.   Fourier analysis provides support for the repeatability of wind structures in HD 93843 on a 7.1-d 'period'. Power at this frequency is evident only at intermediate and high velocities (i.e., above ∼0.3 of the terminal velocity). The long modulation time-scale suggests that changes in the star itself probably provide the physical source for triggering the onset of wind structure. Unfortunately the rotational, photometric, pulsational and magnetic properties of HD 93843 are too poorly constrained or known to permit a more detailed interpretation of the 7.1-d wind modulation in terms of potential inhomogeneities at the stellar surface. Nevertheless, our study demonstrates that the incidence of cyclic, possibly regular, stellar-wind variability is not restricted to rapid rotators. Comparisons with other OB stars which have exhibited repetitive wind changes on 'periods' of several days suggest that the time-dependent UV properties of HD 93843 are more akin to those of the O4-type supergiant ζ Puppis.     

High-resolution numerical simulations of Hurricane Isabel (2003) over North Carolina

Two numerical simulations were performed to study the ability of a high-resolution mesoscale model to predict the track and structure of Hurricane Isabel over North Carolina. One simulation (Control) used standard NCEP climatologically-based sea surface temperature (SST) data for the lower boundary condition while another simulation (Experimental) prescribed real-time high-resolution SST data for the lower boundary. Results from this study show that both simulations predict the track of Isabel over North Carolina reasonably well, although the track predicted by the experimental simulation agrees more closely with observations. The experimental simulation more closely agrees with observations of the intensity of Isabel and the amount and spatial distribution of precipitation. These results reinforce the importance of accurate high-resolution SST data on numerical simulations of tropical cyclones.     

Advances in computational morphodynamics using the International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) software

Results from computational morphodynamics modeling of coupled flow–bed–sediment systems are described for 10 applications as a review of recent advances in the field. Each of these applications is drawn from solvers included in the public-domain International River Interface Cooperative (iRIC) software package. For mesoscale river features such as bars, predictions of alternate and higher mode river bars are shown for flows with equilibrium sediment supply and for a single case of oversupplied sediment. For microscale bed features such as bedforms, computational results are shown for the development and evolution of two-dimensional bedforms using a simple closure-based two-dimensional model, for two- and three-dimensional ripples and dunes using a three-dimensional large-eddy simulation flow model coupled to a physics-based particle transport model, and for the development of bed streaks using a three-dimensional unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes solver with a simple sediment-transport treatment. Finally, macroscale or channel evolution treatments are used to examine the temporal development of meandering channels, a failure model for cantilevered banks, the effect of bank vegetation on channel width, the development of channel networks in tidal systems, and the evolution of bedrock channels. In all examples, computational morphodynamics results from iRIC solvers compare well to observations of natural bed morphology. For each of the three scales investigated here, brief suggestions for future work and potential research directions are offered. © 2019 The Authors Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Diurnal variation of precipitation over the Carolina Sandhills region

The Carolina Sandhills are known to have an area of maximum precipitation on its western boundary during the summer mainly due to differences in soil types. Statistical analysis was performed on summer precipitation data from automated weather stations in the Carolinas, along the Sandhills for the years 2001 to 2006. Statistically significant difference was observed between the day and night precipitation amounts. A case study also revealed the diurnal pattern of convective precipitation.     

Monsoon rainfall simulations with the Kuo and Betts-Miller schemes

Summary Two numerical experiments are performed using a nested grid regional model to study the performance of the Kuo and the Betts-Miller cumulus parameterization schemes in simulating the rainfall during an active monsoon period. Results indicate that the monsoon circulation features, such as the Somali jet and monsoon depression are better simulated with the Kuo scheme. With the Kuo scheme, predicted intensity and associated rainfall of the monsoon depression are in good agreement with the observations. Uncertainty in the adjustment parameters in the Betts-Miller scheme appears to have lead to the poor prediction of rainfall. Also, the Betts-Miller scheme showed considerable sensitivity to the convergence in the lower troposphere in the initial conditions over the Arabian Sea, leading to a prediction of a spurious intense tropical cyclone. This cyclone replaced the normal heat-low over the desert region. Rainfall distribution and its maximum along the west coast of India were predicted better with the Kuo scheme. Area-averaged convective heating rates indicated that the cumulus convection is deeper and more intense with the Kuo scheme. Also, area averaged evaporation rates far exceeded the rainfall rates with the Betts-Miller scheme while with the Kuo scheme these rates are in balance after the spinup period. Forecast erros in the zonally averaged specific humidities indicate that the model atmosphere is more humid with the Betts-Miller scheme.With 14 Figures     

Validating quantitative precipitation forecast for the Flood Meteorological Office,Patna region during 2011–2014

In order to issue an accurate warning for flood, a better or appropriate quantitative forecasting of precipitation is required. In view of this, the present study intends to validate the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) issued during southwest monsoon season for six river catchments (basin) under the flood meteorological office, Patna region. The forecast is analysed statistically by computing various skill scores of six different precipitation ranges during the years 2011–2014. The analysis of QPF validation indicates that the multi-model ensemble (MME) based forecasting is more reliable in the precipitation ranges of 1–10 and 11–25 mm. However, the reliability decreases for higher ranges of rainfall and also for the lowest range, i.e., below 1 mm. In order to testify synoptic analogue method based MME forecasting for QPF during an extreme weather event, a case study of tropical cyclone Phailin is performed. It is realized that in case of extreme events like cyclonic storms, the MME forecasting is qualitatively useful for issue of warning for the occurrence of floods, though it may not be reliable for the QPF. However, QPF may be improved using satellite and radar products.     

Quasi-static deformation of a poroelastic half-space with anisotropic permeability by two-dimensional surface loads

An analytical solution is obtained of the fully coupled diffusion–deformation system of equations governing the quasi-static plane strain deformation of a poroelastic half-space with anisotropic permeability and compressible constituents. The stresses and the pore pressure are taken as the basic state variables. Displacements are obtained by integrating the coupled constitutive relations. The problem of surface loads is discussed in detail. Explicit analytical solutions are derived for normal line loading, shear line loading and normal strip loading. The permeability anisotropy is found to have a significant effect on the quasi-static deformation of the half-space. However, in the drained and undrained limits, the anisotropy has no effect. The stresses in the drained and undrained states are independent of the poroelastic parameters. Numerical computation of the pore pressure indicates that ignoring permeability anisotropy may lead to an overestimation of the pore pressure at points vertically below the point of normal loading. Further, anisotropy in permeability may lead to a dilution in the theoretical prediction of the Mandel–Cryer Effect.     

Solar X-Ray Spectral Irradiance Variability

Solar spectral irradiance at X-ray wavelengths show large variations over a period of solar cycle. We use X-ray irradiance data in three narrow spectral regimes deduced from Yohkoh SXT measurements to study coronal irradiance and their possible association with the activity in the lower atmosphere. Time variation of the X-ray irradiance is important in understanding the emergence of magnetic flux and the effects of such variation on the upper atmosphere of the Earth. We note that about 66% of the total (2 – 30 Å) X-ray irradiance arise from 10 to 20 Å spectral range, while 2 – 10 Å contribute only about 3% of the total. The time variation in 2 – 10 and 10 – 20 Å ranges follow each other closely. Further they follow closely the solar indices such as sunspot, F _10.7, and plage indices, although similarity in the variation of 10 – 20 Å is quite apparent. However, the variation in the other spectral band (20 – 30 Å) differ to a large extent except for the solar cycle dependent variation. We infer that in addition to the active regions, the remnants of active regions contribute considerably to the emission in this spectral range.