三体散射长钉（TBSS）在C波段雷达中的应用研究

利用普洱CIND3830-CC天气雷达资料、地面观测资料进行统计分析,研究2004-2013年普洱C波段天气雷达中27次三体散射长钉(TBSS)的统计特征、地面降雹与TBSS的对应关系,并对TBSS在冰雹预警方面的应用进行探讨,结果表明:(1)C波段雷达中,产生TBSS的回波的反射率因子范围为55.0~68.4 dBz,70%的TBSS出现在反射率因子≥60 dBz时。(2)TBSS的维持时间为10~79 min,63%的TBSS维持时间超过20 min。(3)TBSS一般出现在4.0~9.5 km,最低出现在2.6 km,最高出现在11.4 km。(4)TBSS长5.6~22.4 km,宽1.5~14.6 km,TBSS宽度与强回波区径向外侧的60 dBz以上回波的面积成正比,但TBSS的长度与反射率因子核心的强度和宽度无明显对应关系。(5)出现TBSS时,59%的回波出现了降雹,11%的回波出现了强冰雹。(6)出现TBSS且出现降雹的过程中,TBSS预报冰雹的时间提前量为5~100 min,平均为34.5 min。(7)在出现TBSS且出现降雹的过程中,TBSS的宽度与冰雹的大小或降雹密度成正比。此外,分析了出现TBSS但未降雹的原因,找出了TBSS配合垂直液态水含量密度(D_(VIL))和45 dBz伸展高度、TBSS配合回波宽度和45 dBz伸展高度的预报冰雹的方法,在出现TBSS特征的回波中,上述方法的预报准确率分别达89%和94%(临界成功指数为0.89和0.94)。     

Response of evapotranspiration and water availability to the changing climate in Northern Eurasia

We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climate models examined, the US Southwest including California and the southern Great Plains was consistently found to be the most vulnerable. For most of the US, the largest contributions to changes in vulnerability come from changes in supply. However, for some areas of the West changes in vulnerability are caused mainly by changes in demand. These changes in supply and demand result mainly from changes in evapotranspiration rather than from changes in precipitation. Importantly, changes in vulnerability from projected changes in the standard deviations of precipitation and evapotranspiration are of about the same magnitude or larger than those from changes in the corresponding means over most of the US, except in large areas of the Great Plains, in central California and southern and central Texas.     

A Velocity Dealiasing Scheme for C-band Weather Radar Systems简

A dealiasing algorithm for radar radial velocity observed by C-band Doppler radars is presented as an extension of an existing S-band dealiasing algorithm. This has operational significance in that many portable and many commercial broadcast radars, as well as approximately one half of the Chinese weather radar network （CINRAD）, are C-band radars. With a wavelength of about 5 cm, the Nyquist interval of C-band radars is just about one half that of S-band radars （wavelength of about 10 cm） and thus has more velocity folding. The proposed algorithm includes seven modules to remove noisy data, find the starting radials, dealias velocities, and apply least squares error checking in both the radial and azimuth directions. The proposed velocity dealiasing method was applied to one widespread rain case and three strong convective cases from radars operating in China. It was found that, on average, 92.95% of the aliased radial velocity data could be correctly de-aliased by the algorithm, resulting in 96.65% of the data being valid.     

Variations of early autumn rainfall in the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau

The variability of climate in the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) often exhibits unique features. In this study, the authors investigate the variations of early autumn rainfall in the lee side of the TP (LSTP). The rainfall amount and number of rain days in LSTP increase from August to September. The center of heavy and torrential rains during September is located in LSTP as well. These unique features are attributed to later withdrawal of the East Asian summer monsoon in the middle and higher troposphere compared to the lower troposphere and stronger South Asian summer monsoon and thermal forcing of the TP. The September rainfall in LSTP experienced strong interdecadal fluctuation, with overall below normal rainfall from mid-1980s to late 2000s, while there was no apparent long-term trend in the August and October rainfall amount. The above normal September rainfall is associated with an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific, a weaker-than-normal ridge around the Lake Baikal, a stronger-than-normal East Asian jet stream, and warmer air over the southeastern TP. The interdecadal decrease in rainfall in September may be caused by the central equatorial Pacific warming, which induces an anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific. The September anomalous cyclone is stronger and more westward compared to that in August and October, and thus favors the below normal rainfall in LSTP.     

Distinct quasi-biweekly features of the subtropical East Asian monsoon during early and late summers

Using Global Precipitation Climatology Project daily rainfall and ERA interim reanalysis data, we investigate the distinct characteristic of quasi-biweekly variation (QBV: 12–20 days) over East Asia (EA) during early (June 10–July 20) and late (July 21–August 31) summer. The QBV maximum variance is found over the core region of EA (30°–40°N, 110°–130°E), which includes eastern China (lower reaches of the Yellow, Huaihe, and Yangtze rivers) and the Korean Peninsula. At both its peak wet and dry phases, QBV over the core region has a baroclinic structure, but with different spatial distributions, different lower-level prevalent wind anomalies, and different upper-level major circulation anomalies in the two subseasons. Meanwhile, the two subseasons have different propagating tracks prior to reaching the peak phase, and different precursors associated with the local genesis of QBV. Furthermore, during the transition from the peak dry to peak wet phase of QBV, the major monsoon circulations have different behaviors that tropical monsoon trough extends eastward in early summer but retreats westward in late summer and the South Asia high (SAH) and western North Pacific (WNP) subtropical high move toward (away from) each other in early (late) summer. The abrupt change of mean state in mid to late July, which includes the northward migration of westerly jet, SAH and WNP, and the weakening and broken of westerly jet, is considered the root cause of the change in behavior of QBV. Finally, we indicate that the tropical monsoon trough and midlatitude westerly jet are possible sources of QBV over subtropical EA in both subseasons and provide useful guidance for 2–3 week predictions over EA.     

A six hundred-year annual minimum temperature history for the central Tibetan Plateau derived from tree-ring width series

The recent unprecedented warming found in different regions has aroused much attention in the past years. How temperature has really changed on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) remains unknown since very limited high-resolution temperature series can be found over this region, where large areas of snow and ice exist. Herein, we develop two Juniperus tibetica Kom. tree-ring width chronologies from different elevations. We found that the two tree-ring series only share high-frequency variability. Correlation, response function and partial correlation analysis indicate that prior year annual (January–December) minimum temperature is most responsible for the higher belt juniper radial growth, while more or less precipitation signal is contained by the tree-ring width chronology at the lower belt and is thus excluded from further analysis. The tree growth-climate model accounted for 40 % of the total variance in actual temperature during the common period 1957–2010. The detected temperature signal is further robustly verified by other results. Consequently, a six century long annual minimum temperature history was firstly recovered for the Yushu region, central TP. Interestingly, the rapid warming trend during the past five decades is identified as a significant cold phase in the context of the past 600 years. The recovered temperature series reflects low-frequency variability consistent with other temperature reconstructions over the whole TP region. Furthermore, the present recovered temperature series is associated with the Asian monsoon strength on decadal to multidecadal scales over the past 600 years.     

Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia

The northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region (NASM) in China refers to the most northwestern extent of the Asian summer monsoon. Understanding the characteristics and underlying mechanisms of drought variability at long and short time-scales in the NASM region is of great importance, because present and future water shortages are of great concern. Here, we used newly developed and existing tree-ring, historical documentary and instrumental data available for the region to identify spatial and temporal patterns, and possible mechanisms of drought variability, over the past two millennia. We found that drought variations were roughly consistent in the western (the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor) and eastern (the Great Bend of the Yellow River, referred to as GBYR) parts of the NASM on decadal to centennial timescales. We also identified the spatial extent of typical multi-decadal GBYR drought events based on historical dryness/wetness data and the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. It was found that the two periods of drought, in AD 1625–1644 and 1975–1999, exhibited similar patterns: specifically, a wet west and a dry east in the NASM. Spatial characteristics of wetness and dryness were also broadly similar over these two periods, such that when drought occurred in the Karakoram Mountains, western Tianshan Mountains, the Pamirs, Mongolia, most of East Asia, the eastern Himalayas and Southeast Asia, a wet climate dominated in most parts of the Indian subcontinent. We suggest that the warm temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific might have been mainly responsible for the recent 1975–1999 drought. Possible causes of the drought of 1625–1644 were the combined effects of the weakened Asian summer monsoon and an associated southward shift of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes occurred due to a combination of Tibetan Plateau cooling together with more general Northern Hemisphere cooling, rather than being solely due to changes in the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific. Our results provide a benchmark for comparing and validating paleo-simulations from general circulation model of the variability of the Asian summer monsoon at decadal to centennial timescales.     

Impact of land–sea thermal contrast on interdecadal variation in circulation and blocking

The impact of asymmetric thermal forcing associated with land–sea distribution on interdecadal variation in large-scale circulation and blocking was investigated using observations and the coupled model intercomparison project outputs. A land–sea index (LSI) was defined to measure asymmetric zonal thermal forcing; the index changed from a negative to a positive anomaly in the 1980s. In the positive phase of the LSI, the 500 hPa geopotential height decreased in the polar regions and increased in the mid-latitudes. The tropospheric planetary wave activity also became weaker and exerted less easterly forcing on the westerly wind. These circulation changes were favorable for westerly wind acceleration and reduced blocking. In the Atlantic, the duration of blocking decreased by 38 % during the positive LSI phase compared with that during the negative phase; in Europe, the number of blocking persisting for longer than 10 days during the positive LSI phase was only half of the number during the negative phase. The observed surface air temperature anomaly followed a distinctive “cold ocean/warm land” (COWL) pattern, which provided an environment that reduced, or destroyed, the resonance forcing of topography and was unfavorable for the development and persistence of blocking. In turn, the responses of the westerly and blocking could further enhance continental warming, which would strengthen the “cold ocean/warm land” pattern. This positive feedback amplified regional warming in the context of overall global warming.     

基于ICESat-2 ATLAS数据的DEM高程精度评价

为探究ASTER GDEMV3、SRTM1 DEM和AW3D30 DEM 3种开源DEM数据的高程精度,本文以高精度ICESat-2 ATLAS测高数据为参考数据,利用GIS统计分析、误差相关分析及数理统计对DEM的高程精度进行对比评价。结果表明：①AW3D30的质量最稳定;SRTM1 DEM在平原精度最高;在高原山地精度由高到低依次为AW3D30 DEM、ASTER GDEMV3、SRTM1 DEM。②DEM数据高程精度受地表覆盖影响较大,且与地形因素密切相关,在相同地表覆盖的两个研究区中DEM数据高程精度表现情况不一致,SRTM在平原地表覆盖下精度表现最好,平均误差为3.15 m,AW3D30 DEM在山地地表覆盖下精度表现最好,平均误差为7.61 m。③坡度对DEM数据的高程精度影响较大,在两个研究区3种DEM数据的高程误差均随坡度的增加而增加;坡向对DEM数据的高程精度影响较小,未发现明显的规律。     

自贡大山铺废卤(气)井泄漏原因分析

四川省自贡市盐卤开发有近2 000年历史,大山铺曾是自贡市井矿盐生产基地之一,由于长期从事岩盐、天然气开采,留下了大量的废卤(气)井。分析表明:大山铺地下地质情况较为复杂,构造断裂、裂隙发育,且连通性较好,给卤(气)上窜提供了地质条件;卤(气)井未封井或套管腐蚀穿孔、破裂造成卤水及伴生天然气沿裂隙上窜,表现为对含水层、土地资源破坏及对空气的污染。