Implementation of Sugeno: ANFIS for forecasting the seismic moment of large earthquakes over Indo-Himalayan region

The earthquake is known to be an unpredictable geophysical phenomenon. Only few seismic indicators and assumptions of earthquakes can be predicted with probable certainty. This study attempts to analyze the earthquakes over the Indo-Himalayan Border region including Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, China and India during the period from 1995 to 2015. Bangladesh, Bhutan and China borders experience fewer earthquakes than Nepal and India border regions. However, Indo-China rim has inconsistency and vast range in its magnitude. Bangladesh though is a small country with respect to others, but it experiences earthquakes comparable to Bhutan. Nepal experiences highest number of earthquakes. In the last 20 years around 800 records have been observed with moment magnitude > 4.0 Richter scale, while very few records (around 10–12) have been observed for large earthquakes having moment magnitude > 6.0 Richter scale over the region. In this study adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system has been implemented to assess the predictability of seismic moment associated with large earthquakes having the moment magnitude between 6.0 and 8.0 Richter scales using different combination of epochs, technique and membership functions. The Gaussian membership function with hybrid technique and 40 epochs is observed to be the reasonable model on the basis of the selected spatial and temporal scale. The forecast error in terms of root-mean-square error with the stopping criterion 0.001 has been observed to be 0.006 in case of large earthquakes (> 6.5 Richter scale), that is, forecast accuracy of 99.4%. The model bias of 0.6% may be due to inadequate number of large earthquakes having moment magnitude > 6.5 Richter scale over the region.     

Long-term Trends of Benthic Habitats Related to Reduction in Wastewater Discharge to Boston Harbor

A combination of methods (infaunal grabs and sediment profile cameras) were used to monitor the response of Boston Harbor benthic habitats to reductions in wastewater associated with movement of the outfalls to the mouth of the harbor and then offshore. From 1992 to 2006, there was strong evidence that benthic habitats within Boston Harbor have shifted from a more anaerobic state to a more aerobic state and that these changes are directly related to changes in carbon loading associated with outfall placement and improvements in wastewater treatment. Over the period of 1992 to 2000, when the ocean outfall started to operate, there was >90% reduction in organic loadings to Boston Harbor from 11,400 to 1,200 t C per year. There were also corresponding decreases in primary production due to reduced nutrient loadings. The most apparent change in harbor benthos was the widespread increase in 1992 and subsequent decline by 2005 in Ampelisca spp. tube mats. The long-term increase in thickness of the apparent color redox potential discontinuity layer was consistent with reductions in organic loading and increases in bioturbation. The optimal organic loading for maintaining large areas of amphipod tube mats and high bioturbation rates was around 500 g C per square meter per year. Above and below this level, the area of tube mats in Boston Harbor declined.     

A seismic survey to detect natural gas hydrate in the East Sea of Korea

Recently, several countries have conducted projects to explore and develop natural gas hydrate, which is one of the new alternative energy resources for the future. In Korea, a five-year national research project was initiated in 2000. As part of this project, a seismic survey was performed in the East Sea of Korea to quantify the potential magnitude and distribution of natural gas hydrates. Multi-channel seismic data and core samples have been acquired and recovered in the survey area. Analysis of seismic data show clear bottom simulating reflectors (BSRs), seismic blank zones (or wipe-out zones) with velocity pull-up structure, and pock-marks. In this study, we present the results of seismic surveys which indicate the existence of natural gas hydrates in Korean offshore areas. These results will be applied to select areas for coring (or drilling) and detailed exploration such as 2D seismic survey with long offset or 3D seismic in the future.     

Gas hydrates in the western deep-water Ulleung Basin, East Sea of Korea

Geophysical surveys and geological studies of gas hydrates in the western deep-water Ulleung Basin of the East Sea off the east coast of Korea have been carried out by the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) since 2000. The work included a grid of 4782 km of 2D multi-channel seismic reflection lines and 11 piston cores 5–8 m long. In the piston cores, cracks generally parallel to bedding suggest significant in-situ gas. The cores showed high amounts of total organic carbon (TOC), and from the southern study area showed high residual hydrocarbon gas concentrations. The lack of higher hydrocarbons and the carbon isotope ratios indicate that the methane is primarily biogenic. The seismic data show areas of bottom-simulating reflectors (BSRs) that are associated with gas hydrates and underlying free gas. An important observation is the numerous seismic blanking zones up to 2 km across that probably reflect widespread fluid and gas venting and that are inferred to contain substantial gas hydrate. Some of the important results are: (1) BSRs are widespread, although most have low amplitudes; (2) increased P-wave velocities above some BSRs suggest distributed low to moderate concentration gas hydrate whereas a velocity decrease below the BSR suggests free gas; (3) the blanking zones are often associated with upbowing of sedimentary bedding reflectors in time sections that has been interpreted at least in part due to velocity pull-up produced by high-velocity gas hydrate. High gas hydrate concentrations are also inferred in several examples where high interval velocities are resolved within the blanking zones. Recently, gas hydrate recoveries by the piston coring and deep-drilling in 2007 support the interpretation of substantial gas hydrate in many of these structures.     

Governing fisheries as complex adaptive systems

Fisheries are complex human-in-nature systems. The conventional approach to fisheries systems has been to treat them as predictable and controllable. As complex systems they are neither of the two and have to be approached differently. Complex systems often exhibit the capacity to self-organize or adapt, even without outside influence. If this is true of fisheries, it should lead to a radically different approach to management of fisheries systems that places much emphasis on enabling self-organization, learning and adaptation. Conceptual and practical frameworks for enabling activities are needed.     

The Subdwarf Database

An interactive database interface to the subdwarf catalogue has been designed and prototyped. The implementation is still under development, but is already fully functional. More than 2300 stars from an updated edition of the subdwarf catalogue have been loaded into the database, and additional photometric data from many other sources have been included. The database tools include advanced search capabilities in coordinate, magnitude and colour space. Output tables can be generated in HTML with hyperlinks to automatically generated finding charts, the SIMBAD database, the Aladin viewer, as well as an internal data sheet generated for each database entry. Search results can be visualised automatically as interactive position, magnitude or colour diagrams. Access to the database is currently restricted to those who wish to contribute to the development of the project.     

Temporal divergence in cropping pattern and its implications on geospatial drought assessment

Time series data on cropping pattern at disaggregated level were analysed and its implications on geospatial drought assessment were demonstrated. An index of Cropping Pattern Dissimilarity (CP-DI) between a pair of years, developed in this study, proved that the cropping pattern of a year has a higher degree of similarity with that of recent past years only and tends to be dissimilar with longer time difference. The temporal divergence in cropping pattern has direct implications on geospatial approach of drought assessment, in which, time series NDVI data are compared for drought interpretation. It was found that, seasonal NDVI profiles of drought year and normal year did not show any anomaly when the cropping patterns were dissimilar and two normal years having dissimilar cropping pattern showed different NDVI profiles. Therefore, it is suggested that such temporal comparisons of NDVI are better restricted to recent past years to achieve more objective interpretation.