Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on World Agriculture, Food Consumption, and Economic Welfare

Because of many uncertainties, quantitative estimates of agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are often given low confidence. A major source of uncertainty is our inability to accurately project future changes in economic activity, emissions, and climate. This paper focuses on two issues. First, to what extent do variable projections of climate generate uncertainty in agriculturally related economic impacts? Second, to what extent do agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic conditions at the time of impacts? Results indicate that uncertainty due to variable projections of climate is fairly large for most of the economic effects evaluated in this analysis. Results also indicate that economic conditions at the time of impact influence the direction and size of as well as the confidence in the economic effects of identical projections of greenhouse gas impacts. The economic variable that behaves most consistently in this analysis is world crop production. Increases in mean global temperature, for example, cause world crop production to decrease on average under both 1990 and improved economic conditions and in both instances the confidence with respect to variable projections of climate is medium (e.g.,67%) or greater. In addition and as expected, CO₂ fertilization causesworld crop production to increase on average under 1990 and improved economic conditions. These results suggest that crop production may be a fairly robust indicator of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.A somewhat unexpected finding is that improved economic conditions are not necessarily a panacea to potential greenhouse-gas-induced damages, particularly at the region level. In fact, in some regions, impacts of climate change or CO₂ fertilization that are beneficial undercurrent economic conditions may be detrimental under improved economic conditions (relative to the new economic base). Australia plus New Zealand suffer from this effect in this analysis because under improved economic conditions they are assumed to obtain a relatively large share of income from agricultural exports. When the climate-change and CO₂-fertilization scenariosin this analysis are also included, agricultural exports from Australia plus New Zealand decline on average. The resultant declines in agricultural income in Australia plus New Zealand are too large to be completely offset by rising incomes in other sectors. This indicates that regions that rely on agricultural exports for relatively large shares of their income may be vulnerable not only to direct climate-induced agricultural damages, but also to positive impacts induced by greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere.     

Geological controls on rock mass classification of coal from Huntly East Mine, New Zealand

Rock Mass Rating (RMR) measurements from 65 sites within Huntly East underground coal mine are presented. All measurements are in coal, for which the dominant discontinuities are vertical cleat. Basic RMR values using two discontinuity spacings are presented: overall RMR based on the average spacing of all individual discontinuities; and cleat zone RMR based on the average spacing between zones of cleat. Cleat orientations are highly variable, but on average approximately parallel horizontal stress axes (face cleat follows maximum horizontal stress axis, butt cleat follows minimum horizontal stress axis).Contours of RMR variations throughout the mine are used to compare rock mass conditions with geological structure. It is apparent that: (1) RMR is least within downthrown fault blocks, and particularly immediately on the downthrown sides of faults, and greatest in upthrown fault blocks; and (2) RMR contours parallel horizontal stress axes within fault-bounded blocks, and bend to parallel faults at block boundaries. From similar contours for parameters contributing to RMR, the Rock Quality Designation (RQD), groundwater rating, and discontinuity condition rating create most of the observed variations in RMR. RQD is determined from the measured discontinuity frequency and hence is a measure of the degree of fracturing of the rock mass. This is interpreted as influencing the groundwater and condition parameters directly by allowing greater water ingress. Discontinuity frequency is greatest (least spacing) in the immediate vicinity of faults, and in downthrown fault blocks, generating low RMR values. Within fault blocks RQD varies little, so RMR contours align with cleat orientations.As RMR contours, faults, stress field and cleat orientation are clearly interrelated, there is unequivocally a connection between RMR and structural geology; this allows some predictive capacity in terms of ground conditions. If geological features can be accurately defined through either drilling programs or seismic surveys, then ground conditions may be predicted before panels are driven.     

Influence of landscape position and vegetation on long-term weathering rates at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

The spatial variability of long-term chemical weathering in a small watershed was examined to determine the effect of landscape position and vegetation. We sampled soils from forty-five soil pits within an 11.8-hectare watershed at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. The soil parent material is a relatively homogeneous glacial till deposited ∼14,000 years ago and is derived predominantly from granodiorite and pelitic schist. Conifers are abundant in the upper third of the watershed while the remaining portion is dominated by hardwoods. The average long-term chemical weathering rate in the watershed, calculated by the loss of base cations integrated over the soil profile, is 35 meq m⁻² yr⁻¹—similar to rates in other ∼10 to 15 ka old soils developed on granitic till in temperate climates. The present-day loss of base cations from the watershed, calculated by watershed mass balance, exceeds the long-term weathering rate, suggesting that the pool of exchangeable base cations in the soil is being diminished. Despite the homogeneity of the soil parent material in the watershed, long-term weathering rates decrease by a factor of two over a 260 m decrease in elevation. Estimated weathering rates of plagioclase, potassium feldspar and apatite are greater in the upper part of the watershed where conifers are abundant and glacial till is thin. The intra-watershed variability across this small area demonstrates the need for extensive sampling to obtain accurate watershed-wide estimates of long-term weathering rates.     

Imaging the ramp–décollement geometry of the Chelungpu fault using coseismic GPS displacements from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake

We use coseismic GPS data from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake to estimate the subsurface shape of the Chelungpu fault that ruptured during the earthquake. Studies prior to the earthquake suggest a ramp–décollement geometry for the Chelungpu fault, yet many finite source inversions using GPS and seismic data assume slip occurred on the down-dip extension of the Chelungpu ramp, rather than on a sub-horizontal décollement. We test whether slip occurred on the décollement or the down-dip extension of the ramp using well-established methods of inverting GPS data for geometry and slip on faults represented as elastic dislocations. We find that a significant portion of the coseismic slip did indeed occur on a sub-horizontal décollement located at 8 km depth. The slip on the décollement contributes 21% of the total modeled moment release. We estimate the fault geometry assuming several different models for the distribution of elastic properties in the earth: homogeneous, layered, and layered with lateral material contrast across the fault. It is shown, however, that heterogeneity has little influence on our estimated fault geometry. We also investigate several competing interpretations of deformation within the E/W trending rupture zone at the northern end of the 1999 ground ruptures. We demonstrate that the GPS data require a 22- to 35-km-long lateral ramp at the northern end, contradicting other investigations that propose deformation is concentrated within 10 km of the Chelungpu fault. Lastly, we propose a simple tectonic model for the development of the lateral ramp.     

Polyphase evolution of the East Gobi basin: sedimentary and structural records of Mesozoic–Cenozoic intraplate deformation in Mongolia

Mapping and correlation of 2D seismic reflection data define the overall subsurface structure of the East Gobi basin (EGB), and reflect Jurassic–Cretaceous intracontinental rift evolution through deposition of at least five distinct stratigraphic sequences. Three major northeast–southwest‐trending fault zones divide the basin, including the North Zuunbayan (NZB) fault zone, a major strike‐slip fault separating the Unegt and Zuunbayan subbasins. The left‐lateral NZB fault cuts and deforms post‐rift strata, implying some post‐middle‐Cretaceous movement. This fault likely also had an earlier history, based on its apparent role as a basin‐bounding normal or transtensional fault controlling deposition of the Jurassic–Cretaceous synrift sequence, in addition to radiometric data suggesting a Late Triassic (206–209 Ma) age of deformation at the Tavan Har locality. Deposits of the Unegt subbasin record an early history of basin subsidence beginning ～155 Ma, with deposition of the Upper Jurassic Sharilyn and Lower Cretaceous Tsagantsav Formations (synrift sequences 1–3). Continued Lower Cretaceous synrift deposition is best recorded by thick deposits of the Zuunbayan Formation in the Zuunbayan subbasin, including newly defined synrift sequences 4–5. Geohistory modelling supports an extensional origin for the EGB, and preliminary thermal maturation studies suggest that a history of variable, moderately high heat flow characterized the Jurassic–Cretaceous rift period. These models predict early to peak oil window conditions for Type 1 or Type 2 kerogen source units in the Upper Tsagantsav/Lower Zuunbayan Formations (Synrift Sequences 3–4). Higher levels of maturity could be generated from distal depocentres with greater overburden accumulation, and this could also account for the observed difference in maturity between oil samples from the Tsagan Els and Zuunbayan fields.     

Modelling the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall: a case study in the wet and dry tropics of North East Australia

Rainfall regimes with strong spatial and temporal variation are characteristic of many coastal regions of north and eastern Australia. In coastal regions of north eastern Australia, regimes vary considerably over short distances. This occurs because of changes in local topography, including the height and orientation of mountain ranges and the direction of the coastline with respect to the prevailing moist south east air stream. Northern Australia experiences a tropical monsoon climate with rainfall occurring predominantly during the summer months. Areas with a closer proximity to the coast typically experience the heavier rainfalls. While networks of rainfall gauges have been established and continuous records are available for most of these stations from the 1890s, their low distribution density relative to the complexity of rainfall pattern they are required to represent means that there remains a poor understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in the wet tropics. An enhanced knowledge of rainfall distribution in both space and time has the potential to deliver significant economic and environmental benefits to managers of natural resources. This paper reports on the application of a technique for estimating mean annual and mean monthly rainfall across the Herbert River catchment of north east Australia's dry and wet tropics. The technique utilises thin plate smoothing splines to incorporate both location and elevation into estimates of rainfall distribution. We demonstrate that the method can be applied successfully at the meso scale and within the domain of routinely available data. As such, the method has broad relevance for decision making.