Oxygen isotopes from Chinese caves: records not of monsoon rainfall but of circulation regime

Oxygen isotope variations in Chinese stalagmites have been widely interpreted as a record of the amount of East Asian summer monsoonal rainfall. This interpretation infers decreasing monsoonal rainfall from the mid‐Holocene and large, dipolar rainfall oscillations within glaciations. However, the speleothem δ¹⁸O variations conflict with independent palaeoclimate proxies (cave δ¹³C, loess/palaeosol magnetic properties, δ¹³C alkanes), which indicate no systematic decline in rainfall from the mid‐Holocene, and no glacial rainfall maxima. Using mass balance calculations (which incorporate seasonality effects in both δ¹⁸O concentration and amount of precipitation), we demonstrate that the cave δ¹⁸O variations cannot be accounted for by summer rainfall changes, or rainfall seasonality or winter cooling, but instead reflect changes in moisture source. A possible driver of the δ¹⁸O variations in Chinese stalagmites is precessional forcing of inter‐hemispheric temperature gradients, and resultant shifts in the position and intensity of the subtropical pressure cells. Through such forcing, Indian monsoon‐sourced δ¹⁸O may have dominated at times of high boreal summer insolation, and local Pacific‐sourced moisture at low insolation. Suppression of summer monsoonal rainfall during glacial stages may reflect diminished sea and land surface temperatures and the radiative impacts of increased regional dust fluxes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Convection-permitting regional climate simulation of warm-season precipitation over Eastern China

Climate Dynamics - Convection-permitting regional climate models have been shown to improve precipitation simulation in many aspects, such as the diurnal cycle, precipitation frequency, intensity...     

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on World Agriculture, Food Consumption, and Economic Welfare

Because of many uncertainties, quantitative estimates of agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are often given low confidence. A major source of uncertainty is our inability to accurately project future changes in economic activity, emissions, and climate. This paper focuses on two issues. First, to what extent do variable projections of climate generate uncertainty in agriculturally related economic impacts? Second, to what extent do agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic conditions at the time of impacts? Results indicate that uncertainty due to variable projections of climate is fairly large for most of the economic effects evaluated in this analysis. Results also indicate that economic conditions at the time of impact influence the direction and size of as well as the confidence in the economic effects of identical projections of greenhouse gas impacts. The economic variable that behaves most consistently in this analysis is world crop production. Increases in mean global temperature, for example, cause world crop production to decrease on average under both 1990 and improved economic conditions and in both instances the confidence with respect to variable projections of climate is medium (e.g.,67%) or greater. In addition and as expected, CO₂ fertilization causesworld crop production to increase on average under 1990 and improved economic conditions. These results suggest that crop production may be a fairly robust indicator of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.A somewhat unexpected finding is that improved economic conditions are not necessarily a panacea to potential greenhouse-gas-induced damages, particularly at the region level. In fact, in some regions, impacts of climate change or CO₂ fertilization that are beneficial undercurrent economic conditions may be detrimental under improved economic conditions (relative to the new economic base). Australia plus New Zealand suffer from this effect in this analysis because under improved economic conditions they are assumed to obtain a relatively large share of income from agricultural exports. When the climate-change and CO₂-fertilization scenariosin this analysis are also included, agricultural exports from Australia plus New Zealand decline on average. The resultant declines in agricultural income in Australia plus New Zealand are too large to be completely offset by rising incomes in other sectors. This indicates that regions that rely on agricultural exports for relatively large shares of their income may be vulnerable not only to direct climate-induced agricultural damages, but also to positive impacts induced by greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere.     

Evaluation of precipitation prediction skill of IMD operational NWP system over Indian monsoon region

Summary The study provides a concise and synthesized documentation of the current level of skill of the operational NWP model of India Meteorological Department based on daily 24 hours forecast run of the model during two normal monsoon years 2001 and 2003 making detailed inter-comparison with daily rainfall analysis from the use of high dense land rain gauge observations. The study shows that the model, in general, is able to capture three regions of climatologically heavy rainfall domains along Western Ghats, Northeast India and over east central India, over the domain of monsoon trough. However, the accuracy in prediction of location and magnitude of rainfall fluctuates considerably. The inter-comparison reveals that performance of the model rainfall forecast deteriorated in 2003 when rainfall over most parts of the region was significantly under-predicted. These features are also reflected in the error statistics. The study suggests that there is a need to maximize the data ingest in the model with a better data assimilation scheme to improve the rainfall forecast skill.     

Wind energy estimates by use of a diagnostic model

A diagnostic model is a relatively simple and practical tool for modeling the wind flow of the boundary layer in complex terrain. The model begins with a wind analysis based on available surface wind reports and geostrophic winds (computed from pressure data). The height of the boundary layer top (upper surface of the computational domain) is prescribed to fit local conditions. Using the continuity equation in terrain-following coordinates, the winds at mesh points are adjusted to produce nondivergence while maintaining the original vertical component of vorticity. The method of computing the nondivergent winds uses direct alterations. This method may be useful for other modeling purposes and will be described. Data for a long period (usually a year) are analyzed to obtain eigenvectors and the associated time series of their coefficients at each observation time. The model is run only for the five or six eigenvectors that explain most of the variance. The wind field at any particular time is reconstructed from the eigenvector solutions and their appropriate coefficients. Comparisons of model results with measured winds at sites representing different types of terrain will be shown. The accuracy and economy of the model make it a useful tool for estimating wind energy and also for giving wind fields for low-level diffusion models.     

A technical comment: Analysis of ‘examination of “global atmospheric temperature monitoring with satellite microwave measurements”’

The potential for residual hydrometeor contamination effects in the global temperature time series produced by Spencer and Christy from MSU channel 2 (MSU2) data has been addressed by Prabhakara et al. (1995, 1996). They use tropical oceanic MSU channel l (MSU1) data to estimate the hydrometeor effects on MSU2. We present several lines of evidence to show that their technique greatly overestimates the hydrometeor effects on MSU2. This overestimation is due to the faulty assumption that the hydrometeors that cause MSU1 warming are the same as (or always exist with) the hydrometeors that cause cooling in MSU2. Instead, the hydrometeors responsible for MSU1 warming are liquid phase, while those responsible for MSU2 cooling are large ice particles. Because liquid phase clouds are much more widespread than the large-ice portions of deep convective systems, their method greatly overestimates the areal coverage of contaminated tropical MSU2 data. In addition, we show that the convective screening procedure of Spencer and Christy removes the negative correlation between MSU1 and MSU2 their conclusions rest upon. Radiosonde validation of monthly tropical MSU2 anomalies over the tropical West Pacific also support these conclusions.     

Ten Years of Science Based on the Canadian Precipitation Analysis: A CaPA System Overview and Literature Review†

Near real-time quantitative precipitation estimates are required for many applications including weather forecasting, flood forecasting, crop management, forest fire prevention, hydropower production, and dam safety. Since April 2011, such a product has been available from Environment and Climate Change Canada for a domain covering all North America. This product, known as the Regional Deterministic Precipitation Analysis, is generated using the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system. Although it was designed for near real-time use, an archive of pre-operational and operational products going back to 2002 is now available and has been used in numerous studies. This paper presents a review of the various scientific publications that have reported either using or evaluating CaPA products. We find that the product is used with success both for scientific studies and operational applications and compares well with other precipitation datasets. We summarize the strengths and weaknesses of the system as reported in the literature. We also provide users with information on how the system works, how it has changed over time, and how the archived and near real-time analyses can be accessed and used. We finally briefly report on recent and upcoming improvements to the product based, in part, on the results of this literature review.     

Characterisation of ecological parameters in tropical forest community—A remote sensing approach

Satellite Remote Sensing data has been used for vegetation mapping, initial stratification, distribution of sample plots and for calculating the area under different vegetation types. Primary and secondary analyses of vegetation has been done using phytosociological ground data collected from sample piots to assess the ecological importance of different species. Interrelationships among different communities have been evaluated through various available indices. The spatial distribution and vegetation analysis indicate that commercial extraction of natural forests of Andaman has set in retrogression. The evergreen forests subjected to shorter rotation of commercial exploitation are being invaded with seral deciduous species. The study highlights the status of forests (spatial and community) and stresses the need to conserve germplasm present in the natural evergreen forests.     

GIS professional development for teachers: lessons learned from high-needs schools

University faculty partners from the Departments of Geography and Instruction and Teacher Education at a large, public university collaborated with K-12 teachers and the leadership of a rural school district in order to investigate the crosscutting content of science, mathematics, and geography through the integration of web-based GIS technologies. The project explored the critical connections among technology, pedagogy, and content with a particular emphasis on developing technology-enhanced, inquiry-based lessons in which the teachers and their students used GIS technologies to analyze, visualize, and present data in real-world contexts. The findings highlight the importance of well-structured professional development that builds community, integrates diverse content and pedagogical expertise, provides feedback and coaching, and is of sufficient duration to effect change.     

Habitat analysis for sambar in corbett national park using remote sensing and gis

Habitat analysis for sambar in terms of food, cover, water, space and extent of edge in Corbett National Park using remote sensing and GIS has been attempted. Other physical parameters include climate, topography, fire history, disturbance regimes, weeds etc. IRS-IB LISS II data (FCC, hardcopy) on 1:50.000 scale was interpreted to generate vegetation cover and density map. Other maps showing drainage, water bodies, roads, human habitations and contours were prepared using Survey of India topographical maps. During evaluation of sambar habitat information regarding habitat parameters and their tolerance was collected from existing literature as well as during field observations. Twenty-two transects of one km. length were laid down in all the strata randomly to collect information regarding the structure and composition of the forest and also habitat use (direct and indirect evidences) by sambar. This was then integrated using condition-based equations in the GIS domain to generate suitability maps. Actual sightings on the ground to a large extent supported the results.