Spatial transferability of the physically based model TRIGRS using parameter ensembles

The development of better, more reliable and more efficient susceptibility assessments for shallow landslides is becoming increasingly important. Physically based models are well-suited for this, due to their high predictive capability. However, their demands for large, high-resolution and detailed input datasets make them very time-consuming and costly methods. This study investigates if a spatially transferable model calibration can be created with the use of parameter ensembles and with this alleviate the time-consuming calibration process of these methods. To investigate this, the study compares the calibration of the model TRIGRS in two different study areas. The first study area was taken from a previous study where the dynamic physically based model TRIGRS was calibrated for the Laternser valley in Vorarlberg, Austria. The calibrated parameter ensemble and its performance from this previous study are compared with a calibrated parameter ensemble of the model TRIGRS for the Passeier valley in South Tyrol, Italy. The comparison showed very similar model performance and large similarities in the calibrated geotechnical parameter values of the best model runs in both study areas. There is a subset of calibrated geotechnical parameter values that can be used successfully in both study areas and potentially other study areas with similar lithological characteristics. For the hydraulic parameters, the study did not find a transferable parameter subset. These parameters seem to be more sensitive to different soil types. Additionally, the results of the study also showed the importance of the inclusion of detailed information on the timing of landslide initiation in the calibration of the model.     

Climatic and oceanographic changes in the Northeast Atlantic reflected by magnetic properties of sediments deposited on the Portuguese Margin during the last 340 ka

Rock magnetic parameters measured along two giant piston cores MD95-2040 (40°34′N, 9°51′W) and MD95-2042 (37°47′N, 10°09′W) collected off the Portuguese Margin, related to other proxy-climatic data, have been used to reconstruct magnetic mineralogical changes of, in relation to environmental and climatic conditions over the North Atlantic, Western Europe and Northwest Africa during the last three climatic cycles (since isotope stage 10). Thin discrete layers containing coarse grains of titano-magnetite are associated with events of iceberg discharge during Heinrich events 1-6 [Heinrich, Quat. Res. 29 (1988) 142] that have equivalent events in isotope stages 5-8. Concentrations of fine-grained (Ti-) magnetite and hematite/goethite, varying in phase opposition, are directly linked with alternations of cold and warm climatic periods. Spectral analyses of the rock magnetic signals reveal Milankovitch periods at 100 and 41 ka, confirming the relationship with long-term climatic changes at high latitudes. The nature (Ti-magnetite) and size range of the finest ferrimagnetic fraction as well as its variation, suggest a control by deep currents carrying a colloidal/clayey fraction from remote sources (Iceland, Faeroes, mid-Atlantic Ridge). Variation of hematite/goethite contents is linked with transport by rivers and winds from the neighbouring continent. A tight correlation with the D-O cycles in Greenland ice records confirms that North Atlantic oceanic regimes and continental wind regimes were strongly influenced by millennial scale climatic changes throughout the last 350 ka.     

Ancient Forests in European drylands: Holocene palaeoecological record of Mazarrón,south-eastern Spain

This paper presents a new Holocene palaeoecological record from coastal south-eastern Spain, a region characterised by high plant species diversity, varied physiography, high risk of desertification, and a history of human pressure on the landscape that stretches to antiquity. The pollen sequence shows four main vegetation phases: the first characterised by mixed forests of Pinus and evergreen Quercus accompanied by broad-leaved mesophilous trees, and a diversity of Mediterranean scrub; the second phase is characterised by mesophytic decline and expansion of Artemisia; a third, mid-Holocene phase of thermo-mesophytic maxima with prevalence of forested landscapes; and, finally, the progressive opening of the landscape with sparse pines, halo-xerophytic grasslands and sclerophyllous brushwood. The current treeless situation of south-eastern Spain is a relatively recent feature resulting from a dramatic change in the ecological structure of the regional landscapes. This paper stresses the continued vulnerability of these arid systems in the face of a changing climate. This sequence adds to previous palaeobotanical records (pollen and charcoal) and archaeological reports to suggest that deforestation started earlier in low-elevation areas and river basins than in the inland mountains and platforms, a factor that appears in connection to human exploitation of the natural environment.     

Submerged vegetation complexity modifies benthic infauna communities: the hidden role of the belowground system

Marine plants provide a variety of functions with high economic and ecological values in ecosystems. The above‐ (AG) and below‐ground (BG) systems increase the structural complexity of plants, which also enhance faunal abundance and diversity. The ecological role of the AG compartment in structuring inter‐tidal macrobenthic communities has been widely studied; however, this is not the case for the BG compartment. This study addressed the effects of variation in vegetation complexity (in both AG and BG systems) on associated macrobenthic infauna with respect to abundance, species richness, composition, weight and body type. To achieve this aim, a field experiment using artificial vegetation mimics was carried out using replicated treatments with different AG‐BG complexity ratios. We found a significant increase in the density and the number of taxa of macrobenthic infaunal species in plots with vegetation mimics compared with unvegetated areas, regardless of either AG or BG complexity. This effect was found even when AG parts were not present (i.e. when only BG parts were used). Furthermore, a positive relationship between structural complexity and diversity was recorded. Variation in one or both plant compartments was strongly related to diversity changes in the associated macrobenthic infauna. In conclusion, our experimental set‐up provides the first evidence that the BG compartment is at least as important as the AG compartment in controlling diversity in inter‐tidal vegetated areas because it was able to strongly affect community structure even when the AG system was totally absent.     

Diversity of faunal assemblages associated with ribbed mussel beds along the South American coast: relative roles of biogeography and bioengineering

Benthic organisms are among the most diverse and abundant in the marine realm, and some species are a key factor in studies related to bioengineering. However, their importance has not been well noted in biogeographic studies. Macrofaunal assemblages associated with subtidal beds of the ribbed mussel (Aulacomya atra) along South America were studied to assess the relationship between their diversity patterns and the proposed biogeographic provinces in the Southeastern Pacific and Southwestern Atlantic Oceans. Samples from ribbed mussel beds were obtained from 10 sites distributed from the Peruvian coast (17°S) to the Argentinean coast (41°S). The sampling included eight beds in the Pacific and two in the Atlantic and the collections were carried out using five 0.04 m² quadrants per site. Faunal assemblages were assessed through classification analyses using binary and log‐transformed abundance data. Variation in the size and density of mussels, and in the species richness, abundance and structure of their faunal assemblages were tested using a permutational multivariate analysis of variance. Faunal assemblages showed a north–south latitudinal gradient along both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Binary and abundance data showed a difference in the resulting clustering arrangement of Pacific sites between 40°S and 44°S, indicating a pattern of continuity in the species distribution associated with biological substrates. At a regional scale, the distribution of species along the South American coast matched the general provincial pattern shown by prior studies, which show two biogeographic units on the Pacific coast separated by an intermediate (probably transitional) zone and a single province on the Atlantic coast extending up to Northern Argentina. Biological substrates such as ribbed mussel beds play an important ecological role by making a similar habitat type available on a large scale for a variety of invertebrate species. Despite such habitat homogeneity, however, the associated fauna exhibit marked distribution breaks, suggesting strong constraints on dispersal. This therefore suggests that macrofaunal assemblages could possibly be used as biogeographic indicators.     

Responses to climatic changes since the Little Ice Age on Maladeta Glacier (Central Pyrenees)

The evolution of Maladeta Glacier (Maladeta massif, central Spanish Pyrenees) since the Little Ice Age maximum is analyzed in this work. The extent of the glacier was mapped into 10 stages using morainic deposits and graphic documents. Climatic data (temperature and precipitation) were reconstructed by using dendroclimatic techniques complemented by recent instrumental records. The results thus obtained confirm the control of the above mentioned climatic factors, particularly annual temperature and winter precipitation, in the evolution of Maladeta Glacier, which has receded from an extent of 152.3 ha in 1820–1830 to 54.5 ha in 2000, a 35.7% reduction in size. The rate of ice wastage has varied during that period, defining several phases of glacial stabilization (1820–1830 to 1857; 1914–1920 to 1934–1935; 1957 to 1981), moderated glacial depletion (1901–1904 to 1914–1920; 1934–1935 to 1957) and marked glacial depletion (1857 to 1901–1904; 1981 to 2000). The evolution of Maladeta Glacier is also in keeping with trends observed from other alpine Mediterranean glaciers, which have experienced a consistent rise in their equilibrium line altitudes during the 19th and 20th centuries as well as associated and prolonged periods of negative mass balance.     

Assessing the performance of a foraminifera-based transfer function to estimate sea-level changes in northern Portugal

We assessed the performance of a transfer function model for sea-level studies using salt-marsh foraminifera from two estuaries of northern Portugal. An independent data set of 12 samples and 13 sub-fossil samples from a core were used to evaluate if reconstructions and errors derived from current models are adequate. Initial transfer function models provided very strong results as indicated by cross-validation (component 2; r² = 0.80-0.82; RMSEP ranged from 10.7 to 12.3 cm) and improved its performance by ca. 10% when sample size reached ca. 50. Results derived using an independent test data set indicate that cross-validation is a very effective approach and produces conservative errors when compared to observed errors. We additionally explored the possible effect of transforming the concentration data into percent in the error estimations by comparing the results obtained based on the use of both concentration and compositional data. Results indicate that this type of transformation does not affect the performance of the transfer function. Results derived from a reconstruction of sub-fossil samples from a core indicate that high-resolution sea-level reconstructions are possible, but show that depositional environments have to be selected carefully in order to minimize the impact of possible taphonomical loss.     

Solar influence and hydrological variability during the Holocene from a speleothem annual record (Molinos Cave,NE Spain)

We present a multi‐proxy approach to reconstructing Holocene climate conditions in northeastern Spain based on an excellent correlation among the lamina thickness, colour parameters and isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) variations recorded in a speleothem. An age model constructed from five U/Th dates and annual lamina counting suggests that the uppermost 14.7 cm of the MO‐7 stalagmite grew between 7.2 and 2.5 ka before present but experienced a growth hiatus from 4.9 to 4.3 ka. Three spectral analysis methods were applied to 11 time series. The results reveal common solar periodicities on decennial (Gleissberg cycle) and centennial (De Vries‐Suess cycle) scales. The onset of Holocene carbonate precipitation in the MO‐7 stalagmite appears to be associated with a cold, wet period, whereas the hiatus and the end of growth are related to warm, dry periods. This environmental trend fits well within the regional Holocene climate.     

The Southern Westerlies during the last glacial maximum in PMIP2 simulations

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds are an important component of the climate system at hemispheric and global scales. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position through an ice-age cycle have been proposed as important drivers of global climate change due to their influence on deep-ocean circulation and changes in atmospheric CO₂. The position, intensity, and associated climatology of the southern westerlies during the last glacial maximum (LGM), however, is still poorly understood from empirical and modelling standpoints. Here we analyse the behaviour of the southern westerlies during the LGM using four coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations carried out by the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PMIP2). We analysed the atmospheric circulation by direct inspection of the winds and by using a cyclone tracking software to indicate storm tracks. The models suggest that changes were most significant during winter and over the Pacific ocean. For this season and region, three out four models indicate decreased wind intensities at the near surface as well as in the upper troposphere. Although the LGM atmosphere is colder and the equator to pole surface temperature gradient generally increases, the tropospheric temperature gradients actually decrease, explaining the weaker circulation. We evaluated the atmospheric influence on the Southern Ocean by examining the effect of wind stress on the Ekman pumping. Again, three of the models indicate decreased upwelling in a latitudinal band over the Southern Ocean. All models indicate a drier LGM than at present with a clear decrease in precipitation south of 40°S over the oceans. We identify important differences in precipitation anomalies over the land masses at regional scale, including a drier climate over New Zealand and wetter over NW Patagonia.