加入WTO后中国旅行社的生存与发展

中国入世后，旅游市场的进一步开放将有利于引进先进的经营管理经验，进一步发展中国得天独厚的旅游资源和劳动力优势。同时，伴随着服务贸易总协定(CATS)在各成员国的实施与经济全球化，中国旅行社的生存与发展将面临机遇和挑战。中国旅行社应勇敢面对挑战，从以下几个方面提高竞争力：(1)树立战略发展思想；(2)树立战略管理思想；(3)化危机为商机，积极成为网介者；(4)界定企业发展方向，发展产品核心功能；(5)迎合消费者需求与创新需求；(6)组建集团化旅行社；(7)实行跨国际化经营，参加国际竞争；(8)加强对外宣传。     

平湖油气田凝析油回注油藏对开发效果影响机理研究

凝析油回注油藏是平湖油气田开发过程中为应对海底输油管线而采取的一种工程应急措施。凝析油回注油藏会引起油层内流体渗流特征的变化，并进而影响油井恢复生产后的开发指标。从室内物理模拟实验和油藏数值模拟两方面开展凝析油回注油藏的影响效果分析，并根据研究结果提出合理的回注方式，不仅从机理上为解决海上油气田开发工程中所遇类似突发事件的处理提供了依据，而且在物理模拟实验和油藏数值模拟研究相结合对油藏基础研究方面提供一些重要的结论。     

黔西南地甲病重病区与环境地球化学关系研究

贵州是我国碘缺乏病严重地区之一，特别是黔西南地区。本根据含碘量的调查，编制了贵州露头地层、地表土壤和地表水中含碘量分布图，并与地甲病患病率分布图进行对比研究。研究表明，地甲病患病率与露头地层中碘含量关系不明显，地表土壤中碘含量与地甲病患病率有一定关系，而地表水中碘含量与地甲病患病率关系较为密切，地表水中含碘量高的地区，地甲病患病率就低，反之则地甲病患病率高。     

浙江天台地区赖家组的划分与分布

柴达木盆地是中国目前保存较为完整的、连续的、巨厚的河－湖相沉积记录的盆地，通过对ZK701＋801，水6孔，涩中6和涩深1井等典型剖面孢子花粉组合特征和分布规律的研究，详细地论述了第四纪孢粉组合带及其所代表的植被，气候演变进程，自1．87MaB.P.以来共识出了59个孢粉组合带，划分出29个完整的冷暖气候旋回，并且同中国西北第四纪黄土－古土壤系列的37个气候旋回以及深海钻孔氧同位素气候旋回进行了较好的对比。     

北山戈壁荒漠地区1：5万植物地球化学测量效果

北山戈壁荒漠景观区土壤垂直剖面不存在通常的A、B、C分层结构，且掺杂有大量风成沙。在公婆泉地区开展1：5万常规地球化学测量方法研究的同时，进行了植物地球化学测量试验研究。研究表明，两种方法的主要指示元素异常有很好对应性，红沙是我国西部干旱荒漠广大地区开展植物地球化学测量的一种良好采样对象。     

Contemporary crustal deformation of the Chinese continent and tectonic block model

We obtain the preliminary result of crustal deformation velocity field for the Chinese continent by analyzing GPS data from the Crustal Motion Observation Network of China (CMONOC), particularly the data from the regional networks of CMONOC observed in 1999 and 2001. We delineate 9 technically active blocks and 2 broadly distributed deformation zones out of a dense GPS velocity field, and derive block motion Euler poles for the blocks and their relative motion rates. Our result reveals that there are 3 categories of deformation patterns in the Chinese continent. The first category, associated with the interior of the Tibetan Plateau and the Tianshan orogenic belt, shows broadly distributed deformation within the regions. The third category, associated with the Tarim Basin and the region east of the north-south seismic belt of China, shows block-like motion, with deformation accommodated along the block boundaries only. The second category, mainly associated with the borderland of the Tibetan Plateau, such as the Qaidam, Qilian, Xining (in eastern Qinghai), and the Diamond-shaped (in western Sichuan and Yunnan) blocks, has the deformation pattern between the first and the third, i.e. these regions appear to deform block-like, but with smaller sizes and less strength for the blocks. Based on the analysis of the lithospheric structures and the deformation patterns of the regions above, we come to the inference that the deformation modes of the Chinese continental crust are mainly controlled by the crustal structure. The crust of the eastern China and the Tarim Basin is mechanically strong, and its deformation takes the form of relative motion between rigid blocks. On the other hand, the northward indentation of the Indian plate into the Asia continent has created the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains, thickened their crust, and raised the temperature in the crust. The lower crust thus has become ductile, evidenced in low seismic velocity and high electric conductivity observed. The brittle part of the crust, driven by the visco-plastic flow of the lower crust, deforms extensively at all scales. The regions of the second category located at the borderland of the Tibetan Plateau are at the transition zone between the regions of the first and the third categories in terms of the crustal structure. Driven by the lateral boundary forces, their deformation style is also between the two, in the form of block motion and deformation with smaller blocks and less internal strength.     

Predictive instantaneous optimal control of elastic structures during earthquakes

A predictive instantaneous optimal control (PIOC) algorithm is proposed for controlling the seismic responses of elastic structures. This algorithm compensates for the time delay that happens in practical control applications by predicting the structural response over a period that equals the time delay, and by substituting the predicted response in the instantaneous optimal control (IOC) algorithm. The unique feature of this proposed PIOC algorithm is that it is simple and at the same time compensates for the time delay very effectively. Numerical examples of single degree of freedom structures are presented to compare the performance of PIOC and IOC systems for various time delay magnitudes. Results show that a time delay always causes degradation of control efficiency, but PIOC can greatly reduce this degradation compared to IOC. The effects of the structure's natural periods and the choice of control gains on the degradation induced by the time delay are also analyzed. Results show that shorter natural periods and larger control gains are both more sensitive and more serious to the degradation of control efficiency. Finally, a practical application of PIOC is performed on a six‐story moment‐resisting steel frame. It is demonstrated that PIOC contributes significantly to maintain stability in multiple degree of freedom structures, and at the same time PIOC has a satisfactory control performance. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predictive instantaneous optimal control of inelastic structures during earthquakes

A new inelastic structural control algorithm is proposed by incorporating the force analogy method (FAM) with the predictive instantaneous optimal control (PIOC) algorithm. While PIOC is very effective in compensating for the time delay for elastic structures, the FAM is highly efficient in performing the inelastic analysis. Unlike conventional inelastic analysis methods of changing stiffness, the FAM analyzes structures by varying the structural displacement field, and therefore the state transition matrix needs to be computed only once. This greatly simplifies the computation and makes inelastic analysis readily applicable to the PIOC algorithm. The proposed algorithm compensates for the time delay that happens in practical control systems by predicting the inelastic structural response over a period that equals the magnitude of the time delay. A one‐story frame with both strain‐hardening and strain‐softening inelastic characteristics is analyzed using this algorithm. Results show that the proposed control algorithm is feasibile for any inelastic structures. While the control efficiency deteriorates with the increase in magnitude of the time delay, the PIOC maintains acceptable performance within a wide range of time delay magnitudes. Finally, a computer model of a six‐story moment‐resisting steel frame is analyzed to show that PIOC has good control results for real inelastic structures. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HLAFS和T63数值预报产品在暴雨分析中的应用

首次使用ＨＬＡＦＳ数值预报产品对黑龙江省暴雨进行分析，结合Ｔ６３数值预报产品，利用两者提供的物理一０８时和２０时的实况场和预报场格点资料，对黑龙江省一次暴雨过程进行分析，找出了暴雨发生的物理机制，指出深厚的水汽条件以及水汽的辐合，强烈的上升运动和不稳定能量的存贮和释放是产生暴雨的关键因素。     

海原断裂带西段断层泥的分形研究

利用光学和电子显微镜研究了海原断裂带西段断层泥的粒径分布，５微米至１厘米的粒径段，断层泥具有自相似特征，断层面的粘滑摩擦的特征位移参数可由分维上限（约１厘米）确定。同时用分形理论分析了断层泥粒度分重量百分比的分形结构特征，探讨了粒度成分分维值与断层运动特征的关系。